Bethel Park, PA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bethel Park, PA

June 13, 2024 3:42 PM EDT (19:42 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:48 AM   Sunset 8:52 PM
Moonrise 11:44 AM   Moonset 12:21 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bethel Park, PA
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Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 131723 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 123 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
Day and warm conditions today will be followed by near average temperatures tomorrow with a marginal chance of severe storms, with the primary threat being wind around and south of Pittsburgh. Next week, there is high confidence in a potentially historic heat wave.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Temperatures around 10 degrees above average.
- A low chance of showers north of I-80 after midnight.
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Surface high pressure is expected to drift off the eastern seaboard today, and a low will pass well to the north through Ontario and Quebec. This will strengthen the pressure gradient today and incite light southwest flow as heights sit around 582dm. Only a few high clouds will traverse overhead; otherwise, the area will remain mostly clear. This will encourage daytime highs to top out around 10 degrees above average in the June sun. Overnight, clouds will move in ahead of the surface trough, and a light south- southeast flow will be maintained, keeping lows around 10 degrees above normal as well.

Some ensembles do indicate that a pre-frontal trough brings showers north of I-80 after midnight and before daybreak, although this remains low probability. Even if showers do materialize, they well be working with a couple hundred joules of elevated CAPE, and flow around or less than 10kts up to 700mb with a shallow surface inversion. Thus, no severe threats are anticipated.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- A cold front will bring a 1 out of 5 risk for severe weather Friday, primarily in the Pittsburgh area and south.
- Dry and near normal conditions prevail Saturday.
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Not much has changed for the daytime forecast update. The front is still forecast to sag down across the area, bringing showers and storms along with it. The front will enter the counties north of I-80 in the morning hours, where even the aforementioned maximum CAPE tops out around 500-700 J/kg. This would limit the development of strong updrafts, and further limit severe potential in the morning.

There is some uncertainty with tracking the timing of the front progression across the Pittsburgh metro. NBM temperature spreads in Pittsburgh at 2pm are as high as 8 degrees between the 25th and 75th percentile, and 14 degrees between the 10th and 90th percentile. This means that around half of the ensemble members have the cold front clear Pittsburgh by 2pm, while the other half have not.

In the more progressive scenario, instability generation would be slower and confined to the areas south of the Pittsburgh metro, where wind would be the primary threat with antecedent mid-to-upper level dry air, 30-40kts of shear, and 500-1000 J/kg CAPE this would bring a lower probability of severe weather confined to a smaller area.

In the slower frontal progression scenario, the areas south of the front would have a longer period to heat and generate instability, with the high end CAPE being around 1000-1200 J/kg.
Combined with 30-40kts of shear, this would be more favorable for wind and hail threats in the Pittsburgh metro and points south. In addition, with around 1.4 modeled PWAT packed into the low- to- mid levels and a slow- moving front, isolated flooding could not be ruled out.

Behind the "cold" front, temperatures will drop to near normal with clearing skies. This may allow for patchy valley fog development Friday night. Into Saturday, mixing into drier air will keep conditions comfortable and near normal. Saturday night may very well be the last time we see lows in the 50s through late June or even July.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- High confidence in a dangerous heat wave setting up early next week with moderate to major heat impacts possible.
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Guidance has been consistent that a potentially-historic ridge will continue to strengthen across much of the central and eastern CONUS Sunday into at least early next week. WPC ensemble clusters are highly consistent through Tuesday, indicating high confidence in the temperature forecast. Near-record breaking heat will build in to start off next week.

Sunday will bring minor to moderate heat risk across the area as surface high pressure establishes off to our east. Significant heat will be possible with this anomalously strong ridge, especially Monday and beyond, when major heat risk is likely.
NBM probabilities for high temperatures reaching 95+ degrees continue to go up, and are now widespread 50-70% across the area, with pockets as high as 80%. These higher probabilities are especially prevalent in lower elevation areas (e.g., river valleys) and urban centers, which tend to be warmer than surrounding areas. In addition, dewpoints are currently forecast to remain in the mid 60s to lower 70s, which would result in high enough humidity levels to support heat indices climbing to, and potentially exceeding, 100 degrees. If dew points do hold toward the lower end of that spectrum, we may be able to make a run at 100 degree air temperatures Monday and beyond (last time at PIT was 7/15/95); NBM probabilities for that threshold are now up to 50% in spots. Only acting to exacerbate the prolonged heat effects will be a 60-80% chance of low temperatures greater than 70 degrees through the end of the week. Heat impacts will need to be closely monitored and headlines may need to be considered.

Three out of four clusters maintain a 594dm ridge through June 22nd with the one exception being a much lower probability solution than the others. CPC suggests that excessive heat may last through June 24th, indicating the potential for a long- duration excessive heat threat. The last comparable, long- duration heat event was from July 1994.

Impacts include heightened heat-related illnesses and potential power grid issues with increased demand. It is strongly encouraged to know where cooling shelters are located and stay hydrated. There may be little relief at night. Gather food, water and medication now. Make a list of friends and family to check on and help them prepare. Strongly consider rescheduling outdoor events. Prolonged exposure to excessive heat was the primary cause of weather-related fatalities in 2023.

AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR conditions will continue through the evening as high pressure slowly works east of the region. Only high clouds are forecast through tonight, before clouds increase overnight ahead of an approaching cold front.

The first showers may arrive in the FKL/DUJ vicinity around 12Z, with an increase in coverage and intensity likely by midday as the front enters the region and as daytime heating increases instability. Have included VCTS mentions at terminals north of I-70 prior to 18Z, but did not include significant impact from these at this point due to uncertainty with frontal timing. MVFR ceilings are possible north of PIT during the midday hours, however, as deeper moisture moves in.

Outlook
Restrictions in showers and thunderstorms continue through Friday afternoon with a cold front. Largely VFR conditions are then forecast Saturday through Monday.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KAGC ALLEGHENY COUNTY,PA 5 sm49 minSW 0810 smClear84°F52°F33%29.97
KPIT PITTSBURGH INTL,PA 15 sm51 minSSW 0710 smA Few Clouds84°F54°F35%29.96
KAFJ WASHINGTON COUNTY,PA 20 sm46 minS 0710 smClear82°F55°F40%30.00
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