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FXUS61 KPBZ 102046 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 346 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
The cold front will continue to track into central PA late this morning into early afternoon. Two to seven inches of snow is expected in the ridges late tonight through Monday with a passing shortwave; Winter Weather Advisories/Winter Storm Warning continue for eastern Preston and Tucker county.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Light rain will continue through 8pm for areas east of Pittsburgh as dynamic system that extends the entire East Coast continues to track through the region. An additional 0.25 inches is expected through 8pm along the ridges before rain changes to snow with incoming cold air from a shortwave crossing the Great Lakes.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:

-Rain will change over to snow after 8pm tonight.
-Snowfall totals could be as high as 7 inches in eastern Tucker county; 2-4 inches is expected in the western Tucker /eastern Preston county.
-Snow will likely be wet and heavy between 8pm and 2am Monday and could be difficult to shovel in the ridges.
-Snow bands may develop between 9am to 2pm near I-80 Monday.

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A passing shortwave trough over the Great Lakes will continue to cool temperatures aloft and change rain into a brief wintry mix followed by snow tonight. With warm sfc temperatures Sunday evening, it may take some time for snow to accumulate. Snow will likely start as wet before becoming fluffy/dry early Monday morning and could impact shoveling conditions along the ridges as snow liquid ratios start near 4:1 and ramp up to 12:1 between 8pm tonight to 2am Monday. Snowfall totals have not changed significant from the midnight forecast package. Probability of 4 inches or higher is above 80% in eastern Tucker county, probability of 6 inches or higher is near 55%. A Winter Storm Warming will continue due to high snowfall amounts and snow loading.

Probability of 2-3 inches is 70-85% in eastern Westmoreland/eastern Fayette county. However, the confidence is low that amounts will exceed Advisory criteria. Winter weather products will not be expanded for this afternoon for these two forecast zones.

Elsewhere, less than an inch is expected Monday morning through Monday afternoon with lake enhanced snow bands under northwest flow. Areas near I-80 may observe a training snow band between 9am to 2pm if strong moisture convergence occurs over Lake Huron and Lake Erie. Probabilities are low but are lighting up near Venango County over the last 12 hours for this scenario.
Hazardous driving conditions could impact the tail end of the morning commute for localized areas.

Ridging over the Central Appalachians will likely clear the sky Monday night. With elevated wind gusts under cold advection, the probability of wind chill temperatures fall 20F or below are high (above 60%) after 10pm Monday night. Probability of wind chill values between 10F to 5F is high /above 90%/ in eastern Tucker County with strong wind gusts.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Early morning temperatures Tuesday will be near normal. However, wind chill values will be in the teens in the lowlands, single digits in the WV ridges as boundary layer winds remain elevated with a new shortwave ejecting into the Great Lakes.

Dry and quiet weather is expected Tuesday through Friday under high pressure. Long term models suggest a coastal low developing in the Gulf of Mexico between Dec. 17th to Dec 19th. However, the ECMWF and GEFS differ on potential impacts along the East Coast. GEFS has a Nor'eastern developing over the Northeast/New England Monday. However, ECMWF keeps the low pressure system in the Southeast for numerous days as a blocking pattern develops.
Therefore, confidence is low on precip chances and impacts over the weekend and into early next week until models shake out the large scale synoptic pattern.

AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Light rain showers continue across the area through the remainder of this afternoon in the wake of this morning's cold front passage, though only minor reductions in visibilities (4-6 SM) are generally being observed at area terminals as a result. Temperatures continue to drop and a transition to snow showers is expected later this evening, lasting through tonight.
Ceilings across the area continue to hover at MVFR levels. Some patchy breakouts into VFR are possible around and southwest of PIT/AGC in the 21Z-00Z timeframe, but otherwise expect the ongoing MVFR restrictions (locally IFR, particularly over the higher terrain to the east) to continue through tonight.

West to northwest winds strengthen late tonight and remain gusty throughout the day Monday, with winds sustained around 10-15 knots gusting to 20-25 knots (as high as 30-35 knots along the ridges). Snow showers taper off Monday morning, first over southwest PA and the northern WV panhandle, then later north of I-80 and along the ridges. Ceilings begin to lift and clear out to VFR levels towards the very tail end (or just beyond) the current TAF period.


OUTLOOK
Restrictions in snow and rain last into Monday, particularly at terminals north of I-80 and close to the mountains. A return to VFR is expected late Monday and should persist through much of next week with building high pressure.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for WVZ512-513.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for WVZ514.

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