Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bethel Park, PA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Severe weather threat, mainly damaging wind, with convective complex moving across Ohio - Additional showers and storms with a crossing cold front overnight

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01Z Update...

Our Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cleared from the area.
Storms are re-firing along the cold front making its way through central OH at this time. Prior convection has really done a number on the environment and any showers or thunderstorms along the trailing cold front may struggle to fire/maintain through our region this evening but still warrant watching. Latest meso- analysis shows ample CIN across the region with a bullseye east of Pittsburgh near 300 J/kg.

Previous discussion...

Additional thunderstorms are expected along the cold front, which is currently across lower Michigan and will arrive in our area from the north during the late evening and overnight, dropping south through the area by sunrise. This activity should be arriving into worked-over air and present less of a severe threat, tapering to showers late.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- The front remains south of Pittsburgh Wednesday, with mostly dry weather.
- Front returns north Wednesday night with scattered showers - Increased rain chances Thursday with another severe weather chance -------------------------------------------------------------------

Models now generally push the front fully south of the CWA by 12Z Wednesday, with any shower potential generally confined to the southeastern ridges. Otherwise, a dry and cooler day is anticipated. Isolated shower chances may start to lift north Wednesday night as the boundary returns north as a warm front.

Rain chances increase Thursday into Thursday night as a shortwave moves up the Ohio Valley ahead of a deepening trough over the Upper Midwest/Plains. Severe thunderstorms are a possibility, with the NBM showing 50 percent or greater chance of 1000 J/kg of CAPE to the southwest of Pittsburgh, and there appears to be better potential for daytime heating, better than some scenarios yesterday. Soundings show instability profiles and shear of sufficient depth to support hail and wind threats at least on an isolated basis. Temperatures warm back up into the upper 70s/lower 80s in most spots in the warm sector.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain chances continues into Saturday at least - Uncertainty increases thereafter, with various scenarios possible for early next week -------------------------------------------------------------------

Wet weather continues into Friday and Saturday as additional shortwaves/the main trough swing through the region. Despite the moist southwest flow, model ensembles are not too excited about heavy rain potential; the NBM generally has only 40-50% chance of greater than 0.50 inch through the 48-hour period ending Saturday morning.

Models become more uncertain after this time. Some scenarios sweep the trough through with a period of dry weather following, while others develop a closed upper low somewhere over the eastern CONUS. Thus, PoPs/temps remain uncertain, and for now, will follow NBM suggestions.

AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Break in the action for the beginning of the TAF period. Another area of showers and storms will move southeastward through the region during the evening and early overnight hours. Will be mainly showers with isolated thunderstorms possible. There will be a MVFR restrictions with both vis and cigs when the rain moves through. The rain will be associated with a cold front which will move south of the region late tonight. Ahead of the front, periodic gusts are possible generally 20 to 25 mph out of the southwest. Behind the front there will be a return to VFR with winds backing to the northwest and weakening. An area of MVFR/IFR cigs is possible as sunrise approaches. Confidence is not high that these clouds will form, but included them in the tafs. Any clouds that form in the morning should dissipate by afternoon.

Outlook...
Occasional restrictions in showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday night and Thursday as a warm front lifts north.

Showers/storms and restrictions continue Thursday night and Friday with the approach and passage of a cold front. VFR returns Saturday under high pressure.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.