Friday, April16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fairview, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 7:37PM Friday April 16, 2021 7:16 AM EDT (11:16 UTC) Moonrise 8:47AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 625 Am Edt Fri Apr 16 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Slight chance of rain this morning, then chance of rain this afternoon.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of rain in the evening.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ300 625 Am Edt Fri Apr 16 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure moves along the southern new england coast today and then moves into the atlantic tonight and Saturday. Weak high pressure builds in Saturday through early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairview, NJ
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location: 40.36, -74.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 161024 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 624 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. A coastal low will remain over southern New England today before it slowly begins shifting off to the east tonight. Weak high pressure will build in for Saturday. A couple of weak upper level disturbances will move through on Sunday and Monday. Stronger high pressure builds in late Monday and into Tuesday. A cold front is then expected to move through on Wednesday, with high pressure likely to build in behind it late in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. 615 am update: A few showers have moved into the southern Poconos early this morning, and temperatures have been cold enough for some snow at Mount Pocono and the surrounding higher elevations. Not expecting accumulations given the marginal temperatures, but brief reductions in visibility are likely in the stronger showers. Radar indicates a steadier stream of showers to the northwest, and expect these to affect the northwest CWA for much of the morning. Tweaked PoPs to account for this, mainly to increase them for areas north of I-76 for much of the day.

Objective upper-air analysis at 00z indicates a persistent pattern of blocky high-latitude flow poleward of fast quasi-zonal flow in much of the southern U.S. Embedded 250-mb jet streaks were identified off the Carolina coast and in the Desert Southwest, with weakly difluent flow in the central U.S. and confluent flow near the East Coast to the south of a strong upper low near the eastern Great Lakes. Low-level flow exhibited weak cold advection in the Mid- Atlantic to the west of an intensifying coastal low approaching southeast New England. That low will provide New England with widespread precipitation and strong winds today, while the northern Mid-Atlantic receives a bout of northwest midlevel flow. As the upper low meanders eastward, an embedded perturbation within the larger-scale gyre will pivot southward this morning. As this occurs, temperatures aloft will cool, and diurnal heating this morning will quickly act to produce instability showers in the area, especially in eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Model soundings suggest showers could get going by mid-morning and persist through the afternoon. Temperatures in the southern Poconos may actually be cold enough for some snow showers initially. In addition, the cold temperatures aloft may promote the development of some graupel in the stronger precipitation cores.

Deterministic models appear to have trended a little more aggressively with precipitation coverage today, especially in the northern CWA. Have increased PoPs somewhat (though not too much given the showery nature of the precipitation and the overall light QPF expected). The relatively limited sky cover around daybreak will quickly fill in later this morning, with most areas mostly cloudy to overcast by afternoon. Combined with the aforementioned weak near- surface cold advection, highs will be below seasonal averages today, with 40s in the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey and 50s to near 60 elsewhere.

The other sensible weather of note today will be winds (thanks to the intensifying low near New England), with west to northwest winds increasing to 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25+ mph late this morning into the afternoon.

Coverage of showers will diminish quickly after dark as diurnal instability quickly abates. Generally, sky cover should improve during the overnight hours, but may hang tough in the northwest/north CWA, in closer proximity to the upper low. Additionally, winds may be slow to diminish tonight, keeping temperatures from tanking (but also contributing to perhaps a slower erosion of the clouds). Temperatures should generally be in the mid to upper 30s northwest of the Fall Line, and in the lower to mid 40s to the southeast.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Low pressure to our northeast continues to depart further away from our region over the weekend. On Saturday, weak surface high pressure and some very weak/transient shortwave ridging will build into the mid-Atlantic. With the continued departure of the coastal low, this will be enough to provide a fairly tranquil day. Still an anomalously cool air mass, but with a bit more sun, we will warm a few degrees over Friday, on either side of 60 for the highs. Northwest flow continues, but with lighter winds compared to Friday. The air aloft remains cold with the departing upper low, and as diurnal heating occurs, lapse rates will steepen, and cloud cover will increase. Cannot rule out an isolated, light shower, but kept PoPs below mentionable levels.

By Saturday night and Sunday, transient high pressure departs, and multiple pieces of shortwave energy track through the region. Not a lot of forcing or moisture with these disturbances though. For Saturday night, we will just see some enhanced cloud cover with lows in the low to mid 40s. During the day on Sunday, diurnal heating will again help to steepen the lapse rates, with deep mixing developing. This will again lead to an increase in clouds in the afternoon. With the deeper mixing than Saturday and another shortwave moving through, there is a better chance for a few scattered showers to develop, especially to the west. However, moisture is still very limited, and capped the PoPs at slgt chc for Sunday as most places will not see these showers. Highs will again increase slightly, mainly into the low 60s. All in all, not a bad weekend with nearly all the time being dry, just not especially warm.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Overview .

Deep troughing and a broad region of anomalously cold air digs into the Great Lakes early next week. Some cold weather records may fall over the central portion of the country. This troughing and colder air will gradually progress towards our region next week. Ahead of it, however, some respectable Southeast ridging develops. This will lead to a warm-up before the colder air, in modified form, arrives over our region after midweek. As has been the case for awhile, the pattern is generally unsettled, but not especially wet for our area. The best chance for rain this week will come with the cold front on Wednesday, but that looks to be a progressive feature with dry weather returning behind it.

Dailies .

Monday-Monday night . Yet another shortwave moves through on Monday. Once again, the bark of the upper level pattern fails to translate to much bite at the surface due to a lack of moisture. There will be a slight chance of a shower, mainly from mid morning to mid afternoon, but by and large a dry day is expected with a mix of clouds and sun. With a bit of warm advection as winds turn more south of west, highs will increase into the mid 60s. A quiet overnight expected with lows in the 40s.

Tuesday-Tuesday night . Tuesday looks to be the pick of the week. Ridging crests overhead with high pressure centered just to the south. Steady southwest flow will develop, and combined with the rising heights, temperatures will respond. Many areas will see highs above 70 with a good deal of sunshine, and it should be a beautiful day. Increasing clouds but continued dry weather expected overnight.

Wednesday-Wednesday night . A transition day on Wednesday as a cold front approaches. A good deal of spread, though nothing atypical for the time range, with how guidance is handling the timing of the front and associated rain chances. Have a chance of showers forecast across the area, though it's unlikely the day will be a washout. Little confidence in the Wednesday temperatures, when highs could be just as warm as Tuesday if the front is slow enough, or 10 to 15 degrees colder if it is faster. So expect some further refinement to the Wednesday forecast in the coming days.

Thursday-Thursday night . Behind the cold front, cooler temperatures and mainly dry weather are expected. The cold air to our west will have moderated a good deal on its way here, and combined with the time of year, certainly not expecting any winterlike cold. Highs Thursday currently look on either side of 60. But it will continue the theme from the past couple weeks of warm weather struggling to maintain itself.

AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . VFR early this morning, but a cloud deck will quickly fill in, with cloud bases nearing MVFR thresholds, especially northwest of the Philly terminals. MVFR is possible even at the Philly terminals this afternoon, with scattered showers expected. Generally, impacts of the showers should be minimal, but winds may become somewhat erratic in their proximity. Additionally, cannot rule out some graupel with the stronger showers. Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Moderate confidence.

Tonight . Lingering cloudiness this evening (near MVFR thresholds) should slowly erode from southeast to northwest overnight, though models vary considerably on timing (and tend to be on the fast side in these patterns). Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt during the evening slowly diminishing overnight. Moderate confidence with winds; low confidence with clouds and potential for MVFR conditions.

Outlook .

Saturday-Sunday night . Mainly VFR. Localized MVFR possible each afternoon, but few if any areas should see that. Northwest winds 5 to 10 kt during the daytimes (a bit stronger on Saturday) and mostly light and variable for the overnights. High confidence.

Monday-Monday night . Mainly VFR. There may be some fog potential on Monday night. Winds shifting from west-northwest to west- southwest at 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday-Tuesday night . VFR. Southwest wind 5 to 15 kt, with some gusts to 20 kt possible Tuesday afternoon. High confidence.

MARINE. A small craft advisory is in effect through tonight for Delaware Bay and the Atlantic coastal waters. West to northwest winds of 15 to 25 kt with slightly higher gusts will occur today, slowly diminishing tonight. Seas are expected to hover in the 4 to 6 foot range today before subsiding gradually tonight.

Outlook .

Saturday-Tuesday . No marine headlines are anticipated. Northwest winds Saturday becoming mostly southwest for the remainder of the period with gusts 20 kt or less. Seas will decrease from around 4 ft down to 2 to 3 ft on Saturday and remain that way through the period.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ430-431- 450>455.

Synopsis . O'Brien Near Term . CMS Short Term . O'Brien Long Term . O'Brien Aviation . CMS/O'Brien Marine . CMS/O'Brien


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 8 mi46 min WNW 16 G 18 45°F 1005.4 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 19 mi26 min NW 16 G 18 46°F5 ft1004 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 20 mi46 min 43°F 52°F1004.6 hPa
MHRN6 20 mi46 min W 8 G 9.9
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 21 mi46 min NW 8.9 G 11 43°F 1004.6 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 24 mi46 min 42°F 50°F1004.9 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 35 mi46 min N 7 G 8 41°F 1005.4 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 39 mi46 min NW 8.9 G 13 42°F 55°F1006.3 hPa
44091 44 mi50 min 47°F6 ft
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 47 mi40 min WNW 6 G 7 42°F 56°F1005.8 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi26 min NW 16 G 19 46°F6 ft1003.8 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ13 mi20 minW 610.00 miFair40°F34°F79%1005.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4SE5SE6S5S4CalmW4CalmCalmW3NW11NW11NW9NW10NW9
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SW10SW9SW8SW7SW10SW5SW6SW7SW7SW6SW6SW4CalmCalm
2 days agoN7N7N7NE5NW8N7NW8
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Tide / Current Tables for Red Bank, Navesink River, New Jersey (2)
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Red Bank
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Fri -- 12:10 AM EDT     3.72 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:26 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:52 PM EDT     3.10 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:14 PM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.73.63.22.61.81.20.70.40.411.82.633.12.92.51.81.20.80.50.71.32.33.1

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current (2)
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:25 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:39 AM EDT     -1.89 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:32 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:43 AM EDT     1.19 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:39 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:46 PM EDT     -1.58 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:17 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:00 PM EDT     1.53 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.4-0.6-1.4-1.8-1.9-1.5-0.9-0.40.41.11.210.5-0.3-1.1-1.5-1.6-1.3-0.7-0.20.51.21.5

Weather Map
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