Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Whitaker, PA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Dry weather and seasonable temperatures expected through much of next week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure will ensure mainly dry weather through much of the coming week. A bit of a weakness in the ridging locally on Tuesday as the high reinforces off to our north and as a mid-level wave rounds a closed low centered over New England may allow for an isolated thunderstorm chance across the higher elevations. Aside from that, rain chances through mid-week remain very low to nil with additional shortwave movement displaced off to our east and scarce column moisture to work with (forecast PWATs near the daily climatological minimum). Temperatures will remain seasonable (highs in 70s, lows in upper 40s/low 50s) with low humidity.

Temperature uncertainty increases mid-week with ensembles still indecisive of the timing of the 500 mb pattern evolution. Basically two camps exist with one being stagnation of the aforementioned closed low or that low departing and allowing ridging to build from the west. This may be the difference between Wednesday/Thursday temperatures remaining seasonable (troughing solution) or trending ~10F above average (ridging solution), but most likely dry in any scenario.

By Friday into Saturday, all ensemble solutions converge to a ridging pattern and warm up with even the cool end of the temperature distribution pulling up to near 80F and the warm end nearing 90F. Uncertainty at that point stems from a digging trough off to our north and how strong the ridging locally can be. There's some signal for attendant surface low development that could bring back our next mentionable chance for rain across the area, and CIPS analogs also allude to this as the next non-zero chance of severe weather.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High probability VFR continues through the TAF period under high pressure. Light east-northeasterly gradient wind overnight will veer a bit more easterly during the day on Sunday at 5 knots or less beneath some cirrus before becoming variable again Sunday night.

Outlook...
Predominantly VFR conditions with dry weather continues into early next week, though a stray shower or storm could develop Tuesday afternoon in the higher elevation bringing low probability, brief impact primarily to LBE.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.