Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Whitaker, PA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Precipitation chances will increase from the north after 4am with a sagging trough over Michigan/Lake Erie.
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A digging shortwave trough will advance across the Midwest tonight, reaching the Upper Ohio Valley region by Monday morning. After a lull in the precipitation after FROPA, additional scattered showers are expected to develop as this trough approaches.

Advancing cold air from the west/northwest will continue to keep gusty conditions overnight/early Monday morning with a gradient wind.

Early morning temperatures will be near normal, in the mid-40s.

SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Much cooler with scattered showers through Tuesday night

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The trough is progged to deepen into a closed low across southeastern Canada Monday. Shortwaves rotating around the low, and a reinforcing cold front, will continue to result in scattered showers across the region on Monday.

Additional shortwaves rotating around the low will maintain scattered to numerous showers across the region Monday night through Tuesday night. During this time, cold advection will also result in 850mb reaching -2 to -4 deg C. A general NW flow off of the Great Lakes will result in lake surface-850mb temperature differences around 20 to 22 deg C, which will bring lake enhanced precip across the area as well. A few snowflakes could mix in with the rain especially across the higher terrain areas of the Laurel Highlands and WV.

Mixing and a strong pressure gradient between low pressure to our east, and high pressure to the west, will maintain wind gusts from 20-30mph through most of the period. Temperatures are expected to average from 10 to 15 degrees below seasonable levels.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Cooler and unsettled weather through mid week - Dry and warmer toward late week -------------------------------------------------------------------

Model ensembles indicate the closed low will open into a trough Wednesday. Cold NW flow across the Great Lakes, and another shortwave rotating through the trough, will maintain scattered showers across the region.

The trough will begin to shift eastward Thursday, exiting the east coast. Ridging between this trough, and a western CONUS trough, will begin to build across the Upper Ohio Valley region late in the week, continuing through Saturday. This will return dry weather and a warming trend to the area. Temperatures will start out around 15 degrees below average on Wednesday, returning to a few degrees above average by Saturday.

AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
With the cold front through the area late tonight, most sites remain VFR with scattering mid-level clouds. Additional showers aided by an upper wave will affect KFKL/KDUJ in the early overnight hours supporting continued restrictions there where ensemble probability favors IFR or lower at FKL and MVFR at DUJ. Tight pressure gradient and a lack of an established nocturnal inversion overnight will support a 60-80% chance of wind gusts exceeding 20 knots.

Showers and restrictions will be reinforced by lake moisture in northwest flow and a surface trough passage arriving from the north around daybreak Monday morning as MVFR probability jumps to 80+% areawide with most likely timing to PIT by 13z. Widespread MVFR to IFR restrictions are likely to continue into Monday with intermittent precipitation chances amid strong cold advection in northwest flow. NW'ly wind will remain gusty through Monday morning, gradually diminishing through the afternoon.

Outlook
Continued upper troughing through Wednesday will lead to periodic precipitation and restriction chances through midweek.
High confidence in prolonged VFR and dry weather starting Thursday under the influence of high pressure and rising heights aloft.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.