Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Whitaker, PA

KEY MESSAGES
1) High-water impacts expected through early this morning

2) Severe weather could return as early as Sunday

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

In the wake of a large-scale disturbance, heavy rainfall (2 to 4 inches) has fallen south of Pittsburgh. High-water impacts may continue for a number of communities despite the loss of rain intensity and coverage early this morning.

Given that the Allegheny River and Youghiogheny River Basin were spare intensity rainfall amounts, the likelihood that Pittsburgh will be impacted (flooding at the Mon Wharf Parking Lot) is considered low.

Dry and quiet weather is expected Wednesday afternoon through Friday under high pressure. The probability of hazardous weather is considered very low.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The threat for severe thunderstorms could return early next week as an upper-level ridge shifts from the West Coast towards the Great Lakes and southwesterly low-level flow transports warm, moist air into the region.

Long-range guidance suggests one or more mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) may develop over the Midwest before tracking into the Ohio River Valley. Forecast soundings indicate an environment capable of supporting all severe weather hazards, including large hail, damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, and heavy rainfall. Machine learning guidance currently indicates a 5-30% probability of severe thunderstorms from Sunday through Tuesday across the Ohio River Valley. The eventual evolution of this threat will largely depend on the amplitude of the eastern U.S.
trough and the strength and position of the upper-level ridge, which will influence the track and intensity of any MCSs.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR, with localized IFR, stratocu is expected to continue this morning as a cold front completes its passage. Mixing and dry advection should result in cigs returning to VFR levels by early afternoon. Building high pressure should then maintain VFR conditions through Thursday, outside of any early morning river valley fog.

Outlook...
VFR is expected through Saturday under high pressure. Shower and thunderstorm chances return on Sunday with an approaching cold front.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.