Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Whitaker, PA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Cold temperatures this morning morning, otherwise dry and warmer today

2) Continued warmer with periodic shower chances mid week into the weekend

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Surface high pressure was centered across PA early this morning. Dry air in place, and efficient radiational cooling will result in temperature at or below freezing this morning.
Continued the Freeze Warning through 10 AM. Otherwise, dry weather is expected today, with some increase in high level clouds in warm advection. Highs should be around 20 degrees warmer than Monday's readings.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A shortwave trough and weakening surface cold front is expected to approach and cross the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Showers are likely, with some enhanced lift from a low level jet ahead of and along the front. Minimal instability (ML CAPE generally less than 500 j/kg) could result in a couple of embedded thunderstorms Tuesday night, with this potential shifting south of PIT during the day on Wednesday.

Dry and warmer weather is expected Thursday into early Friday as a ridge builds in. The ridge should flatten and exit the area later Friday as a more zonal type flow setting up across much of the CONUS into the weekend. Periodic shortwaves embedded in the flow should return periodic shower chances to the region Friday afternoon into the weekend. At this time, it appears the most likely time for showers is with a shortwave and surface warm front approach and passage Friday night, followed by a surface cold front on Saturday. Model ensemble data indicate relatively low instability and shear parameters, with low chances for thunder and severe storms. Lingering shower chances continue, especially early Sunday, with another weak shortwave passage.

A warming trend is expected from Wednesday through Friday, with highs eventually reaching around 15 degrees above average. A return to more seasonable temperatures is expected after the passage of the Saturday cold front.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High clouds and SSW winds gusting to around 20 knots expected through much of today. A cold front drops south through the area late this evening and overnight tonight, bringing lower ceilings and rain chances to the area primarily in the 03z-12z timeframe.
Best chances for MVFR ceilings will be near and north of PIT, with IFR also possible north of I-80 (FKL/DUJ). Some LLWS concerns also creep into the area overnight as a weak low-level jet sets up ahead of the advancing cold front.

Outlook...
Restrictions (most likely MVFR) linger through 18Z Wednesday in the wake of tonight's cold front passage. VFR returns later in the day Wednesday from north to south as dry air advects into the region. VFR is then favored through the end of the work week until another cold front brings rain chances and restrictions back to the area late Friday into Saturday.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ007>009- 013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ039>041- 048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ001>004-012- 021-509>514.