Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Whitaker, PA

KEY MESSAGES
1) The remnants of Isaias will start to impact the region, starting tonight and will continue into tomorrow. Expect rain showers and gusty winds; Wind Advisory in effect.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Hurricane Isaias made landfall and weakened over the past 12 hours as the center tracked north into Alabama. The forecast track remains largely unchanged, with high-resolution guidance in good agreement that the remnants of Isaias will continue north into the Appalachian Mountains, with the low center tracking just south of of Morgantown,WV late Sunday evening.

The initial impacts from the wind and rain are expected to reach the forecast area late tonight,between 7pm and 10pm. An impressive low-level wind field 40-50kts is forecast to overspread West Virginia and western Pennsylvania, supporting gusty conditions, particularly along the ridges. Wind Advisories have been issued for the West Virginia ridges from 8pm tonight through 11am Sunday and the Laurel Highlands of Pennsylvania from 8pm tonight through 2pm Sunday, wind gusts range between 40 to 50mph are possible. Isolated power outages and falling tree limbs may occur during this time period.

Rainfall amounts have changed very little with the latest forecast update. Localized higher totals of 1.0-1.5 inches are possible across eastern Ohio due to enhanced jet dynamics, while areas near Pittsburgh and the Laurel Highlands are expected to receive 0.5-1.0 inches. Persistent easterly flow is expected to promote subsidence downwind of the higher terrain, potentially resulting in a rain shadow between Pittsburgh and the Laurel Highlands. The highest potential for moderate to heavy rainfall rates is expected between 3am and 4pm Sunday before drier air aloft advances into the region from the southwest. Any lightning that develops is most likely to occur between 11am and 3pm Sunday along the leading edge of the dry slot, where elevated instability has a chance to develop.

Isolated light showers may continue into early Monday morning before drier and quiet weather overspread the region.

A passing cold front may return gusty showers late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions will likely continue into the late evening, ahead of the remnants of Isaias. Upper to mid-level clouds will continue to overspread the region today as the tropical disturbance tracks north over the next 24 hours.

The probability of cigs and vis restrictions increases between 03Z to 09Z Sunday as rain showers overspread the region from south to north. High-resolution models suggest cigs quickly dropping to low-MVFR or high-IFR as low-level moisture builds and an inversion develops just above the surface from a strong vertical wind profile. Winds gusts will likely range between 20kts to 30kts Sunday morning before decreasing in intensity between 18Z and 23Z.

Rain chances will decrease from west to east between 00Z to 06Z Monday as the system becomes an open wave and ventures east.

VFR conditions are expected Monday afternoon with warm, southwest flow dissolving any lingering low-level cigs.

Outlook...
A cold front may return restrictions late Tuesday.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Sunday for PAZ074-076-078.
OH...None.
WV...Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ510>514.