Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Homestead, PA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered rain showers continue - Temperatures will remain below average -------------------------------------------------------------------

Scattered showers will continue through the day as lobes of vorticity move through the upper trough. The heavier band of rain from this morning has moved off to the east, with another more focused band of showers likely to move into the region tonight. Instability is lacking with marginal surface heating and cloud cover so precipitation intensity should remain light, minimizing flood concerns.

Temperatures will remain cool with 850hpa temps around 2C.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

-Rain showers will persist Friday and Saturday, though coverage will decrease.
-Well below normal temperatures continue.
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Ensemble guidance and cluster analysis remains in good agreement on the general progression of the trough through this period with the low center shifting eastward into Saturday. While that will mean that the deeper moisture will shift north and east, we will remain in NW flow for the bulk of the period. With 850hpa temperatures close to 0C, lake enhanced and upslope rain showers are likely. Coverage will be at it's greatest during the daylight with fairly modest diurnal heating. Increasing subsidence will lend to drier conditions generally south of Pittsburgh as we go into Saturday. Confidence in showers will be highest north of I-80 but some differences in the evolution of the shortwave ridging maintain at least low shower chances through as far south as Pittsburgh.

Sunday should be the best chance for dry weather areawide and also the day we see the most amount of sunshine.

Cold advection will keep temperatures 10-15 degrees below seasonal averages Fri and Sat, and 5-8 degrees Sunday though some moderation is expected with with peaks of sun through the cloud deck.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- The return of unsettled weather through midweek.
- Moderating temperatures but still below normal.
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A fairly active period in place through midweek as models are coming into better agreement on the return of precipitation late Monday into Tuesday as a southern stream low pressure system lifts toward the upper Ohio Valley. While the models seem to be handling this particular system well, the broader upper pattern does have some differences. Cluster analysis through this period varies on the depth and speed in which an upper low over the northern central CONUS reinforces the broad troughing over the Great Lakes. The general trend is to keep conditions showery with temperatures remaining below average.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Ceilings continue to remain low MVFR to high IFR and are expected to remain that way for the duration of the period as an upper low continues to pull in cooler air, forcing saturation and persistent shower activity from the west. Chances of MVFR cigs for the whole period remain at 90% to 100%. Occasional gusty winds with heating have helped raising the mixed layer (ceiling heights) in some places. Daytime vis restrictions between 3SM and 5SM are generally most likely.

Chances of IFR overnight are higher over western PA (50%-90%), especially along the Appalachian ridges and FKL/DUJ. Lessening shower coverage is forecast overnight tonight into early tomorrow morning.

Ceiling improvements are expected during the day on Friday, however, the intermittent periods of rain are expected to cause restrictions (mainly MVFR) across the region as surface low pressure moves across the region.

Outlook...
Conditions are expected to become drier on Saturday with the chance of ceiling restrictions lifting mainly south of PIT over the remainder of the weekend.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.