Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Homestead, PA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:

- A decaying MCS is likely tonight somewhere in the Ohio Valley tonight, but confidence in location is low.
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Afternoon convective development along a convergence zone and remnant outflow boundaries has now dissipated and exited our area to the east. A few showers remain north of Pittsburgh, but these too should exit within the next hour or two and give way to a brief quiet period this evening.

Satellite imagery shows a pocket of much drier air and clearer skies working in from the west. Some atmospheric recovery has been noted across a good portion of Ohio where some cu have developed and temperatures have touched the low 80s. This has allowed for destabilization of up to 2000 J/kg of uncapped MLCAPE. Lack of forcing is likely going to preclude any additional development for the next couple hours despite the ripe environment, but uncertainty increases into later tonight.

An ongoing MCS is pushing through southern IL and IN this evening. This will be the focus for another round of storms locally later on tonight, but confidence in how it evolves here is still low. CAMs aren't too bullish on the MCS extending far enough north to reach much into SW PA as they mostly favor it to dive south along the best CAPE gradient south of I-70. Given the ample recovery that's been achieved across Ohio and upstream radar observations showing storms developing into central IL and strong conglomerating cold pools propagating additional development north, we could see impacts reaching up to I-70.
This is the "most probable" solution at this point.

Another possible, but lower confidence, solution is that development can extend farther north. This would be reliant on convection across the southern tip of Lake Michigan developing and congealing cold pools with the southern dominant MCS. There is ongoing agitated cu development over that way suggesting convective initiation attempts may be imminent. This afternoon's storms have also left behind remnant outflow north of Pittsburgh as well locally, and this could act as a trigger for additional development later on. So, the CAMs still favor a southward sprint of the MCS as it gets into our eastern Ohio counties after 10pm or so, and the best chances of severe tonight increasing the farther south of Pittsburgh you go. But, will have to watch over the next couple hours to see how the upstream stuff evolves to get a better idea of what it may look like here.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- A cold front will cross the area, bringing gusty winds and a cooldown.

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Irrespective of prior weather, there is high confidence of a cold frontal passage in the late morning and early afternoon.
With this and the upper low pulling across the northern Great Lakes. This will pack the pressure gradient. Pre-frontally, there is some indication that there may be a shallow cap as a bit of pre-frontal warm advection rides up the axis of the front. Should this exist, winds will not start the day gusty.
Should this be absent, gusts of 30-40 mph may develop in the morning.

Into the afternoon, winds are expected to peak along the cold front. Gusts could be heightened in showers/storms along the front, mostly in the 40-50mph range, but the chance of severe could not be ruled out completely. After the cold front, low level cold-advection settles in, destabilizing profiles with the potential to mix into 40kt 850mb winds. Winds behind the front will be more likely than ahead of the front.

With daytime gusts a bit higher in the ridges of eastern Tucker County, a wind advisory is in effect from 10am Saturday to 2am Sunday, where gusts up to 50mph are possible. Winds die down a bit overnight with decoupling

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Cooler and drier pattern returns Sunday through Tuesday.
- Precipitation chances return Tuesday into Wednesday with another low pressure system - Potential for heavy rain mid-week that warrants monitoring -------------------------------------------------------------------

Models have been consistent that troughing over the Great Lakes and northeast CONUS will maintain northwest flow over the local area Sunday into Monday, keeping temperatures seasonable and the weather dry through that time.

Probability of precipitation increases again late Tuesday into Wednesday with a new low ejecting out of the Rockies and tracking east across the Plains. A few model scenarios note a stationary boundary straddling south of Pittsburgh with this passing low. If that scenario plays out, heavy rain could pose a threat for portions of the region around mid-week.

AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The main impact to aviation tonight will be a line of thunderstorms advancing eastward across the area with a cold front. Restrictions, strong wind gusts, and possibly some hail could occur with some of the storms embedded in the line. The greatest uncertainty is the northern extent of this line.
Capping with warmer air around 700mb across northern OH and NW PA should limit the storm potential across that region. Believe the latest CAMS are slightly too far south with this line, so the TAFs reflect this line advancing across OH, Wrn PA, and nrn WV. Did not include thunder at FKL and DUJ, though will monitor the convective trends. The line is likely to reach ZZV from 03-05Z, PIT 05-07Z, and LBE 06-08Z.

Expecting a period of MVFR in showers behind this line.
Conditions should improve by mid morning with mixing, though stratocu and scattered showers are expected through the day with a crossing upper trough. Mixing, cold advection, and a tight pressure gradient behind the front should result in gusty WSW wind from 25-35kt by mid morning, and continuing through the day.

Outlook...
Patchy cig restrictions are possible mainly N of PIT Saturday night into Sunday with the crossing trough and cool WSW flow.
VFR returns Monday under high pressure, before restriction potential and showers return Tuesday and Wednesday with crossing low pressure.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ514.