Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ten Mile Run, NJ

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A weak, diffuse frontal boundary continues to sit over the mid Atlantic but the storms from earlier have ended. In it's wake it will continue to be a warm, muggy overnight period with chances for a few lingering showers, mainly near and south of the urban corridor. Also expect some patchy fog and low stratus around.

Wednesday will virtually be a rinse and repeat kind of day in terms of the overall forecast, except the frontal boundary will have made its way closer to the area, suppressing the overall threat of convection a bit further south. Expecting partly cloudy skies in the morning to give way to mostly cloudy skies come the afternoon. With the tropical and deep moisture airmass persisting in addition to the nearby frontal boundary, yet another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop around late afternoon on Wednesday.
Greatest threat will be from Philadelphia on south, where better atmospheric parameters overlap with one another, so SPC has a SLIGHT risk in those areas, with a MARGINAL risk remaining elsewhere.
Similarly, WPC has kept a SLIGHT risk for excessive rainfall for most of the area on Wednesday as little change in the overall atmospheric environment is expected. A new Flood Watch for flash flooding is in effect that basically includes all areas from the I- 78 corridor southward. Compared to Tuesday, the timing of the convection will be a bit later...mainly after 5 PM so we begin the Flood Watch at this time. All in all another muggy and humid day is expected. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler due to more cloud cover compared to today where heat indicies will largely remain in the 90s for the majority of the area. So it looks like we'll fall short of needing any heat headlines.

Showers and storms continue Wednesday evening with the severe threat gradually diminishing with time but the flash flood threat persisting at least through the evening period. PWATs will remain around 2 inches meaning heavy downpours will be capable of producing locally 2-3 inches of rain within a 1 to 3 hour timeframe.
Showers/storms are likely to linger overnight near and south of the urban corridor however the intensity of them and associated rainfall rates should diminish. The Flood Watch runs until 2 AM. Lows by Thursday morning should be mainly in the upper 60s to low 70s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A warm and humid airmass will be over the Northeast and Mid- Atlantic for the Short Term period. Surface dew points will be in the low to mid 70s, along with highs generally in the mid 80s. This will yield heat index values in the low to mid 90s. These high dew points will also keep low temperatures at night quite warm, and lows will generally be in the lower 70s.

Unsettled weather will remain on tap as a frontal boundary will hover over the area. Abundant low level moisture will be in place given those high dew points, and PWATs will be up to and in excess of 2 inches.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will impact the area Thursday afternoon and evening as shortwave energy approaches from the west and passes through the region. Given how warm and humid conditions will be, locally heavy rain and damaging wind gusts are possible once again. This pattern will repeat yet again on Friday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A fairly typical summertime pattern is on tap for the Long Term period with warm and very humid conditions. Surface dew points will generally be in the low to mid 70s though it is possible that during the peak heating of the day dew points drop by a few degrees due to mixing. Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 80s, possibly around 90 in some spots. This will give way to max heat index values generally in the low to mid 90s.

A series of disturbances will pass through the region from time to time, but confidence in timing and placement is low. Will generally follow the NBM and go with 30 to 50 percent PoPs for most of this time, though the NBM is indicating 60 percent PoPs for the southern Poconos, Lehigh Valley, and Berks county on Sunday due to a stronger system possibly approaching then. Important to note that any showers and thunderstorms will mostly be in the afternoon and evening hours and there are not many factors indicating precipitation would be widespread and organized at this time.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of overnight...There will continue to be some fluctuation in conditions with low MVFR to IFR cigs at times due to low stratus...mainly for RDG, ABE, TTN, and PNE. Some patchy fog will continue to be around as well and could affect TAF sites.
Southwest winds around 3-6 kt. Low confidence.

Wednesday...Primarily VFR with another round of showers and thunderstorms developing by late afternoon. Any showers and storms may cause localized areas of VSBY/CIG restrictions.
Southwest winds around 5-10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday night...Showers and storms continuing with associated restrictions to at least MVFR at at times. Winds light and variable (around 5 knots or less) but generally favoring a S to SW direction.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday...Overall, VFR conditions. However, afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA may result in brief sub-VFR conditions if a given storm passes over a terminal. Sub- VFR conditions possible at night due to fog and low clouds, but confidence low on timing and placement.

MARINE
No marine headlines are in effect through Wednesday night. Some showers are lingering early this morning over our southern waters with another round of showers/storms expected late Wednesday into Wednesday night. These could once again bring localized wind gusts in excess of 34 kt.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday...Sub-SCA conditions for this period.
Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms possible each day. VSBY restrictions possible from time to time, especially at night.

Rip Currents...

For Wednesday, a south/southwest shore parallel wind of around 10-20 MPH and breaking waves of around 3 feet will result in a MODERATE risk for the Jersey Shore. With wind direction mainly offshore along the Delaware Beaches, a LOW Risk for rip currents is in place

For Thursday...flow turns more southerly resulting in slight onshore component for Cape May and Atlantic County, though only around 10 MPH or so. This will result in a MODERATE risk for rip currents in those locations. Seas will be around 2 to 3 feet along the entire coast. More offshore or shore parallel light flow will result in a LOW risk for Ocean and Monmouth County at the Jersey Shore and for the Delaware Beaches.

Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and piers and the speed of the currents are generally maximized at low tides.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

HYDROLOGY
A Flood Watch was issued for areas along and south of I-78 for Wednesday. Rainfall of around 0.5 inches to upwards of 3 to 4 inches fell across the watch area. This results in a saturated surface and low FFG values within the watch area. It will not take much to cause further flooding issues, especially in SE PA, where widespread flooding was reported today. Rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour are possible with thunderstorms rolling through Wednesday Evening.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Flood Watch from this afternoon through late tonight for PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...Flood Watch from this afternoon through late tonight for NJZ009-010-012>027.
DE...Flood Watch from this afternoon through late tonight for DEZ001>004.
MD...Flood Watch from this afternoon through late tonight for MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...None.