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LEZ146 Expires:202310030200;;383643 Fzus51 Kcle 021930 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 330 pm edt Mon oct 2 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez145>147-030200- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- 330 pm edt Mon oct 2 2023
Tonight..Northeast winds less than 10 knots becoming south. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..South winds less than 10 knots becoming northeast. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..South winds 10 knots or less. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 67 degrees, off cleveland 69 degrees, and off erie 69 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KPBZ 030025 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 825 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
Dry, mostly clear, and warm weather is expected through Thursday under high pressure. A potent Friday cold front will bring a pattern change, ushering in cool, wet, and gusty conditions for the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
The evening update required no major changes to the forecast, with only temperature/dewpoint hourly values being refreshed, resulting in tiny changes to overnight lows, mainly a degree downward or so.

Previous discussion...

The persistent pattern of upper subsidence and surface high pressure continues under an anomalous eastern ridge. This will maintain pleasant, dry conditions through tonight.

Surface dew points will continue to trend drier, although another calm, mostly clear night is expected. Further, patchy valley fog will be possible towards the early morning hours, yet again.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
The ridge is expected to continue over the region, allowing for continued warm and dry weather in the short term. Temperatures Tuesday are expected to continue to be 10-15 degrees above average with clear conditions and a light easterly wind.

Continued radiative nocturnal cooling will allow for fog concerns once again on Tuesday night, most likely for the river valleys. This will clear readily beyond daybreak.

As the ridge axis moves off of the coast on Wednesday and a central CONUS trough approaches from the west, the region will return to light southerly flow. High clouds may impinge from the west throughout the day. Warm flow will keep highs above average.
Wednesday has the highest probability that temperatures exceed 80 in the Pittsburgh metro all week.

With the return of light nocturnal winds on Thursday morning, the fog probabilities will decrease, though patchy visibility obstructions are still possible.

The ridge will continue its progression offshore on Thursday.
High cloud cover is anticipated to be a bit more robust, capping heating a bit in what is otherwise a very similar setup to the day prior. Probabilities greater than 50 percent of high temperatures exceeding 80 are only highlighted for the river valleys.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A deepening trough advances across the Plains/Midwest region. A lead shortwave ahead of the main trough, and its associated surface cold front, are progged to approach the region Thursday night. Rain chances are expected to escalate through the night from west to east with increasing moisture and ascent. Rain is likely on Friday into Friday night as the initial shortwave and cold front cross the Upper Ohio Valley region.

The surface cold front and initial shortwave should complete their passage Friday night. Cold advection will result in steep lapse rates Saturday and Sunday, as the deepening upper trough tracks across the Great lakes and Upper Ohio Valley regions.
This will result in scattered showers developing across the region. Instability in a strong pressure gradient will elevate wind gusts into Saturday and Sunday as well, particularly in any stout showers. The probability of exceeding 34 kts or 39mph each day sits roughly between 10 and 30 percent for now.

850mb temperatures are currently progged to drop to 0 to 2 deg C by Saturday. Lake Erie water temperatures are around 20 deg C.
Currently boundary layer wind progs would keep any lake enhancement to the showers north of the forecast area, with a WSW trajectory.

Temperatures should begin their downward trend Friday, with daytime readings over the weekend in the 50s (40s in the higher terrain). NBM probabilities suggest the first chances of sub- freezing low temperatures, albeit low, will arrive next week.

AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through most of the period. The exception is patchy river valley fog expected again near dawn. This is most likely to impact the usual sites: FKL, DUJ, LBE, HLG, MGW. Fog should dissipate by mid-morning Tuesday, giving way to VFR conditions and light winds once again in the afternoon.

OUTLOOK
Outside of morning valley fog, VFR conditions are expected to persist through Thursday under a large ridge of high pressure. A cold front moves through the area on Friday, bringing with it rain showers and breezy winds.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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