Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Keyport, NJ

KEY MESSAGES
1) Freeze warning remains in effect for late tonight into early Tue morning for most areas outside of NYC and immediate eastern/western suburbs.

2) Milder weather should return mid to late week.

3) Conditions look potentially unsettled over the weekend, but there is still a fair amount of uncertainty.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Colder air will be moving in tonight. Kept freeze warning as is, with low temps in the warning area in the 20s and lower 30s per MOS, even a little lower well inland where NW winds should decouple under mostly clear skies late. Closer to the coast, winds not expected to decouple, so stayed mostly with MOS temps which were still colder than NBM, with lows in NYC, Hudson NJ and Nassau NY remaining above freezing. Temps at Newark, JFK, and Islip should get to within a couple of degrees of daily record low temps for Tue: see Climate section for the record lows.

Temperatures remain 10 degrees below normal daytime Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2
Temps return closer to normal levels Tue night into Wed as high pressure moves off the coast, with a return flow setting up.
WAA sets with an approaching warm front, bringing the chance of showers mainly NW of NYC late Tue night, and throughout on Wed mainly in the morning.

Afternoon temperatures on Wednesday will be closer to normal at least from NYC north/west but will still 5-10 degrees below normal east of there, with highs in the 50s and lower 60s.

Thursday is likely the mildest day of the week with highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s from NYC north/west, and lower/mid 60s east.
Temps gradually cool down late week.

KEY MESSAGE 3
Upper air pattern heading into the weekend will a feature a weakening upper ridge just west of the area, sandwiched between an upper low over the Northern Plains and another east of New England and the Canadian Maritimes. At the same time, a surface high builds over the area on Friday, following what appears to be a back door cold front. A warm front associated with the western system then moves into the area on Saturday.
This results in a strengthening boundary in close proximity to the area. This will be a key player in determining the coverage and extent of rain this weekend.

The 12Z operational global models indicate that the surface ridge could be strong enough to keep eastern areas, in particular eastern Long Island and southeast CT on the drier side, with higher probabilities of rain back toward NYC and northern NJ. That being the case there are still solutions like the 00Z ECMWF, which are wet for much of the weekend.
Either way, it looks like there will be a tight gradient somewhere close to the area, going from rain to no rain. Using the NBM, this results in cloudy conditions with a chance of rain everywhere Saturday, but decreasing on Sunday as a frontal wave and boundary get suppressed to the south by strengthening high pressure.

Highs during this time are expected to be below normal, mainly in the 50s, with near normal lows in the 40s.

AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure builds in from the northwest tonight, and offshore late Tue.

VFR thru the TAF period.

Winds will continue to decrease late tonight into early Tue, becoming variable for some terminals where wind speeds are 5 kts or less. A more southerly wind direction develops late Tue morning into Tue afternoon with wind speeds increasing to near 10 kts, continuing Tue ngt.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected thru 6Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday night: MVFR or lower possible aft 10Z. Otherwise VFR with S winds around 10kt.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible early with a chance of showers, improving later in the day and at night with VFR returning. Some southerly wind gusts near 15-20 kt early.

Thursday: VFR.

Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR or lower late at night with a chance of showers.

Saturday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Wind gusts in NW flow after a cold frontal passage may approach 25 kt at times into early this evening on NY Harbor and on the adjacent ocean waters near the harbor entrance. Declined issuing SCA for this since any 25-kt gusts should be sporadic.

Otherwise, winds and seas should remain below advisory levels through Sat night.

CLIMATE
Daily record low temperatures for Tue Apr 21:

KEWR: 31/1981 KBDR: 29/1956 KNYC: 26/1875 KLGA: 33/1956 KJFK: 34/1956 KISP: 30/1965

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Tuesday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ067>071-078>081.
NJ...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NJZ002-004-103>108.
MARINE...None.