Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Keyport, NJ

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
Key Messages:

* Unseasonably warm temperatures (15 to 20 degrees above normal) areawide today, particularly away from southern and eastern coast, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

* Isolated late day thunderstorms with strong wind gusts possible, mainly N&W of NYC/NJ metro.

* Cold water submersion dangers for recreational boaters, canoers or kayakers this weekend with warm air temperatures, but water temps remaining in the 40s.

Upper level trough in southeastern Ontario moves into the Northeast US tonight as an upper level high off the Southeast US coast remains nearly stationary. Meanwhile, at the surface, a cold front moves through early tonight. This cold front will be the focus for some showers and thunderstorms this evening. Mesoscale models have been keying in on a broken line of showers and thunderstorms moving through from 5 pm to 11 pm, mainly across the Lower Hudson Valley, northeast NJ, and inland southern CT (by the time it makes it to the coast, a more stable air mass will allow for any storms to weaken). Convection will be supported by 40 kt 0-6 km shear and a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE (inverted V in most forecast soundings denoting surface based convection), and high PWATs for this time of year (around 1.40" which is very close to the max for climatology). However, mesoscale models keep much of the convection north and west of NYC and even much of the forecast area. Perhaps the one area to keep an eye for is central PA, where a line of storms has developed a bit farther south than where most models had placed it. Additionally, models are about an hour or two behind what is currently happening on radar around the Northeast. So, timing of any precipitation may be off by an hour or two. SPC has place northeast NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, and much of inland southern CT in a marginal risk for severe storms. Therefore, while an isolated severe storm is possible, the main threat will be strong storms with gusts to 40 to perhaps 50 mph and small hail. Also, any thunderstorm could produce an inch or more, given PWATs of near 1.50".

The front is expected to move through by the second half of tonight, allowing temperatures to drop into the 50s prior to daybreak, and bringing and end to any showers. However, this is still well above normal for this time of year, with lows typically in the 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
Dry, but gusty day on Sunday thanks to cold air advection behind the cold front. NW winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 to 30 mph.
Although cooler conditions are expected, temperatures will still be above normal for this time of year, in the 60s for much of the forecast area, except 50s along the immediate coat and Twin Forks of Long Island.

Upper level ridges approaches from the west Sunday night as the center of high pressure moves overhead. This will be a good night for radiational cooling. Undercut guidance by several degrees for many outlying locations. Frost is possible for these areas, with lows in the 30 for those areas. Lows in the 40s expected elsewhere.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
A surface and upper low move into the Great Lakes Monday as high pressure shifts offshore to our east. Dry weather mainly expected on Monday, but increasing clouds late in the day.
Monday night the low over the Great Lakes shifts into southern Ontario sending a warm front through our area then a cold front later on Tuesday as the low shifts into Quebec.

Cloud cover is expected to increase Monday ahead of the warm front.
It should still be a cool day on Monday with highs in the low-60s to upper-50s. A warmer Monday night is expected with the warm front passage with lows Monday night in the upper-40s to mid-50s.
Temperatures climb further on Tuesday with highs in the mid/upper- 70s except for areas to the east cooler due to marine-influence.

Isolated to scattered showers are primarily expected Monday night, clearing west to east into Tuesday.

Thereafter, dry weather is expected Tuesday night through Thursday night with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies under weak high pressure.

The high moves east on Friday, with another shortwave/low pressure system approaching for late Friday into the weekend. Mainly looking at just chance POPs (30-35 percent) late Friday into the weekend for now.

AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A cold front approaches from the west this evening, and moves across the area overnight.

VFR. MVFR possible in any isolated to scattered showers and/or thunderstorms especially N/W of NYC late this afternoon into the evening. Best chance for any showers or thunder after 21Z. PROB30 was used to highlight this chance for SWF/HPN with TSRA. SHRA elsewhere, ending by 03Z or so.

WSW-SW winds gusting 20-25kts through about 00Z. Winds then shift to the W then NW with the cold frontal passage later this evening.
Gusts end for a period overnight, but pick up once again between 10z- 12z for Sunday morning push with gusts into the mid 20kt range through early afternoon. Winds remain NW thereafter through the TAF period.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

An isolated gust of 30kts+ is possible through 00Z.

Chance of an isolated thunderstorm this evening especially EWR/TEB.

OUTLOOK FOR 21Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Sunday: VFR. NW wind gusts around 20kt possible.

Monday: VFR, then sub VFR possible at night with a chance of showers.

Tuesday: Becoming VFR with W winds.

Wednesday and Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
SCA continue on all waters, with non-ocean waters likely coming down below SCA as winds diminish early tonight. SCA on the ocean waters will continue overnight as waves slowly diminish, but remain above 5 ft. They will likely come down from west to east Sunday morning into the early afternoon with high pressure building in.

Marginal SCA conditions possible on the ocean waters Monday Night into Tuesday morning ahead of cold frontal passage. Otherwise, conditions will remain below SCA levels Tuesday afternoon through Friday with a relatively weak pressure gradient over the waters.

FIRE WEATHER
Marginally elevated wildfire spread threat Sunday.

Dry conditions remain. There is potential for scattered showers N&W of NYC this evening, and isolated showers elsewhere. A widespread wetting rain is not expected.

Highs in the 60s on Sunday, with northwest winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts 20 to 30 mph and min RH values in the mid 20 percent range.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic issues through next week.

CLIMATE
Record high temps for Today April 19th. Temps will approach records at BDR, LGA, JFK, ISP.

EWR...92 BDR...82 NYC...92 LGA...85 JFK...84 ISP...82

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ355.