Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ingram, PA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- A crossing cold front into this evening will provide - Showers and potentially a few thunderstorms are expected with frontal passage.
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The cold front, associated with upper level low pressure crossing into southern Ontario, is now in the process of crossing the OH/PA border region. Timing has it in the vicinity of Pittsburgh by 20Z, and reaching the Laurel Highlands by 22Z or 23Z. Gusty showers and a few thunderstorms are accompanying the boundary, with coverage best north of Pittsburgh(where likely PoPs are used) and with the strongest cells north of I-80, in an environment with 500-750J/kg of surface-based CAPE. One of these stronger cells passing near Meadville produced a 37 MPH gust there. Think that 40-50 MPH gusts are possible as they may be able to mix down 40 knot winds aloft, but it appears that warmer air aloft is keeping cell height below 20kft, so strong updrafts are not anticipated. 60 knots of 0-6km shear may support some weak rotation.

The main impact of the front will be gusty wind. Wind gusts of 30-40 MPH can be expected in most locations even away from any showers or storms, as the surface pressure gradient tightens behind the boundary. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Eastern Tucker County through 2 AM, where gusts of 45-55 MPH are already occurring.

Temperatures ahead of the front have climbed into the lower and mid 70s in most locations, but post-frontal cold advection will lead to a drop into the 60s during the afternoon and early evening.

The upper low continues into New England tonight, ushering in a period of northwest flow into our region. A few post-frontal showers may linger into the nighttime hours before largely ending by morning. Seasonable low temperatures in the lower and mid 50s are forecast.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Below-average pattern starts Sunday and continues into Monday

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The Wind Advisory for Eastern Tucker County continues to 2am Sunday, where gusts up to 50mph remaining possible with mountain wave activity from a passing trough. Probability of 50mph gusts decreases mid-morning over the ridges with building high pressure to our west.

Prolong northwest flow, with an upper-level trough exiting into the New England region, will keep the region below-average tomorrow and Monday. High resolution model soundings support upper-level and mid-level subsidence. Therefore, expected mostly dry conditions with scattered fair weather clouds overspreading the region during peak heating.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Cool and dry conditions continue through mid-Tuesday - Precipitation chances return late Tuesday into Wednesday with another low pressure system - Potential for heavy rain Tuesday into late Wednesday -------------------------------------------------------------------

Cluster analysis supports a ridge breaking down over the Ohio River Valley mid-day Tuesday and an upper-level low developing over the northern Plains. Probability of rain increase late Tuesday into Wednesday as this disturbance advances east, phases with a noted weak low over the Great Lakes, and becomes an open wave.

Probability of 1 inch (Tuesday into late Wednesday) for rainfall is slightly elevated (between 40-50%) for areas south of Pittsburgh and along the ridges with numerous long range ensemble models. Probability of 2 inches is less than 20%. With low-level frontogenesis maximized east of Pittsburgh, this is likely signaling lift support from the local terrain.

Light rain is expected Thursday into Friday. With a weaker warm cloud layer (only up to 5kft), excessive rainfall is expected to not pose a risk. The trough axis is expected to advance east into New England late Friday.

Below-average temperatures, by about 5 degrees, continues into this period.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Much of the shower activity will continue to taper off through the rest of this evening as the front exits the region, although a few isolated (and generally non-restrictive) showers may linger up near FKL/DUJ and along the ridges overnight. Wind should begin to gradually subside overnight, but gusts are likely to continue at most terminals except perhaps the typically-calmer spots like BVI and MGW.

A crossing upper trough will set up a prolonged period of northwest flow for our region starting tonight. Stratocumulus with potential MVFR cig restrictions will become more widespread after 10z tomorrow morning, before some slow improvement to low-end VFR occurs by afternoon with a transition to cumulus.
Mixing will provide another round of gustier winds Sunday afternoon, but weaker, in the 15 to 25 knot range.

Outlook...
VFR returns Monday under high pressure before restriction potential and showers return Tuesday and Wednesday with crossing low pressure.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ514.