Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ingram, PA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Cold Weather Advisory and Extreme Cold Warning in effect tonight through Tuesday morning.

2) Wind Advisory in effect today for eastern Tucker County, WV.

3) Snow expected on Wednesday through Thursday from a passing trough.

4) Extended cold late week and next may impact regional infrastructure.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... Cold Weather Advisory and Extreme Cold Warning in effect tonight through Tuesday morning.

With the cold front moving through and out of the area by this afternoon, temperatures will rapidly drop through the evening, with portions of northwest PA likely in the single digits near sunset. Single digits or lower are expected areawide, and areas along the I-80 corridor have a 70-90% chance of seeing below- zero minimum temperatures.

These cold temperatures will overlap with a still-tight pressure gradient and breezy overnight conditions. This will result in wind chills of 10 below zero or colder for most of the region Tuesday morning; a Cold Weather Advisory is in effect. Even stronger winds are expected for Eastern Tucker County, WV (where a Wind Advisory is also in effect through this evening). Wind chills there will plummet to near 25 below zero; an Extreme Cold Warning is in effect.

Gradual warm-up Tuesday morning will be offset by increasing daytime wind speed, meaning most of the area will not break out of negative wind chill territory until the afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Wind Advisory in effect today for eastern Tucker County, WV.

Probabilities remain high (+80%) for exceeding 46mph gusts in eastern Tucker after sunrise this morning and through this evening due to a strong pressure gradient. Wind gusts will likely range from 50-60mph in Canaan Valley. A Wind Advisory is in effect through this evening.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Snow expected on Wednesday through Thursday from a passing trough.

Another trough within the northwest flow is expected to cross the Great Lakes on Wednesday into Wednesday night. This will bring another round of snow to the northern regions. At the surface and ahead of this cold front will be a bit of warm air with some rain expected along the southern counties. However, the northern counties north of I-76 will see a potential 1 to 3 inches, with the higher amounts mainly along and north of I-80.
In fact, in these areas, there is a 80% prob of greater than an inch and a 60% prob greater than 2 inches confined to Forest and Jefferson counties. Thus, the mid week period could be one to watch as well.

KEY MESSAGE 4... Extended cold late week and next may impact regional infrastructure.

Long-range models continue to show a prolonged period of cold, beginning Sunday and lasting into early next week. Average daily temperature in the mid-teens or lower for at least 48 hours is known to cause significant impact to infrastructure, particularly frozen pipes, and will likely lead to rapid formation of ice on rivers.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...

1) Gusty west wind to 20kts after sunrise, relaxing this evening

2) VFR for all but FKL/DUJ this morning, all terminals by this afternoon

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Post-frontal stratocu has been very sparse given dry conditions.
Mainly clear conditions persist for all but FKL/DUJ where stratocu struggled to form, but has since eroded. Guidance still indicates MVFR cigs for FKL/DUJ will form closer to sunrise, but confidence in this is low. MVFR becomes more likely after sunrise, eroding through the early afternoon. Elsewhere, VFR is expected through the period.

Westerly wind remains stout overnight, though have dropped the gusts with this package. Gusts to around 20 kts should return after sunrise with deeper mixing, gradually diminishing this afternoon as the gradient slackens.

Outlook...
Restrictions and snow return Wednesday and Thursday with the approach and passage of a cold front. Cig restrictions are still possible Friday and Saturday under cold NW flow and broad upper troughing.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for PAZ007>009- 013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for OHZ039>041- 048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for WVZ001>004-012- 021-509>513.
Extreme Cold Warning until noon EST today for WVZ514.