Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ingram, PA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly through early afternoon

---------------------------------------------------------------

The showers and thunderstorms have diminished initially overnight, though coverage is expected to increase again toward morning with the approach of a mid level trough. This trough is expected to cross the region this morning, and exit by early-mid afternoon. Precipitable water should begin to decrease this morning, though some locally heavy rain will remain possible in some showers/storms. A strong storm or two is possible as well.

Instability is progged to build through the day, though capping warmth aloft is depicted on model soundings after the passage of the trough. This, and weak low level ridging, should help to limit coverage of convection the remainder of the day. There could still be a few storms in the afternoon along any old outflows that could trigger convection and break the cap.

Warmer temperatures are expected for much of the region, with highs around 5 degrees above average.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers/storms increase Wednesday night, and again Thursday - Mainly dry Friday and Friday night ----------------------------------------------------------------

Ongoing thunderstorm activity to our west is expected Wednesday evening along a prefrontal trough. The highest amount of uncertainty exists in how far east these storms will get Wednesday evening/overnight before outrunning the most favorable instability. CAMs vary on this potential, though currently favor some of the more aggressive solutions, bringing this line at least across the Ohio counties into wrn PA/nrn WV. Would expect cold pool acceleration of the line should allow for a slightly earlier arrival time, allowing for the storms to encounter greater instability as they track eastward. Shear will also be increasing as well with increase flow aloft. The Storm Prediction Center has the area included in a Marginal Risk for severe storms across much of our area, mainly for Wednesday evening/night. Damaging wind appears to be the main hazard, though with favorable hodographs an isolated tornado is also possible.

The cold front is progged for a Thursday afternoon passage.
Showers and thunderstorms are again expected to increase in coverage with the approach and passage of the front. Shear remains favorable (40-50kt from 0-6km) for storms, though the available instability will be the source of uncertainty ahead of the front. A slightly later timing would allow for greater destabilization, with a faster FROPA resulting in lesser instability. The Storm Prediction Center continues to include the area in a Marginal Risk for severe storms. There could also be some localized flooding if any training were to occur, though this potential currently appears lower than in recent days.

The front should complete its passage by Thursday evening, with showers and thunderstorms exiting the region. The remainder of the night should be dry, as high pressure begins to build in.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and increasingly hot weather expected - Excessive heat likely Sunday through Tuesday -------------------------------------------------------------------

Surface high pressure is expected to build across the region on Friday, though a weak trough in NW flow aloft could brush the northern portion of the forecast area. For now, maintained only slight chance POPs north of I-80 for this potential.

Rising 500mb heights are then expected to build across much of the eastern CONUS under under a strong upper high. This should result in a period of dry, and increasingly hot weather through early next week. A 595 dm high is progged is progged across the Upper Ohio Valley region by Sunday, with heights continuing to rise too 598dm by Monday and Tuesday. This should result in high temperatures reaching the lower to mid 90s by Sunday, continuing through at least Tuesday. Overnight lows will likely not drop below the 70s. Heat indices should reach the 90s on Sunday, and could top 100 to 105 Monday and Tuesday, resulting in dangerous heat conditions. Will monitor this over the next several days, though ensemble agreement in this scenario results in a higher than usual confidence that far out in the forecast.

AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Abundant moisture plus residual shortwave movement within southwest flow will spawn scattered light to moderate rain showers through 20z before the wave and sfc boundary shift east. Morning MVFR/IFR cigs will rise through 18z as mixing increases (though potential stall at times within/after shower impact) before there is high confidence (near 100%) of VFR and dry weather by 20z.

A potentially decaying MCS will approach the region after 02z overnight with uncertainty on its ability to maintain lighting/heavy rain/gusty wind potential. Probabilities of such impact are highest at ZZV but notably drop off toward western PA. Moisture convergence ahead of the main surface boundary and the upper trough favors MVFR to localized IFR cig development just prior to 12z.

Outlook...
The passage of a surface front and upper trough axis will generate scattered to numerous showers with isolated thunderstorms Thursday; probabilities favor MGW/LBE as most likely to experience highest gusts/rainfall rates and lightning impact.

Outside of lingering moisture fueling isolated to scattered showers Friday, the outlook favors a prolonged period of VFR Friday afternoon into next week under the influence of high pressure and large ridging overhead.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.