Murrysville, PA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Murrysville, PA

June 22, 2024 3:22 AM EDT (07:22 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 8:54 PM
Moonrise 9:07 PM   Moonset 4:52 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Murrysville, PA
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Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 220714 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 314 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dangerous heat will continue today. Showers and thunderstorms return Sunday with a crossing cold front. A few of these storms could be severe. Temperatures closer to seasonable levels are expected behind the front on Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dangerous heat continues today - Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory remain in effect -------------------------------------------------------------------

The upper high remains across much of the South Central and Southeast CONUS, with the Upper Ohio Valley region on the northern periphery of the high. The high, along with low and mid level ridging, will keep most of the area dry today.

There could be isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms that develop north of I 70 as convective temperatures are reached, though the more likely scenario will be cumulus cloud formation. Dry air aloft should make it difficult for shower/thunderstorm development to occur, though areas closer to I 80 could see a slightly higher potential as the lake breeze moves south.

The main story today will be the heat. 500mb heights will be similar to Friday, before beginning to fall slightly later in the day. 850 mb temperatures are progged to be near, or slightly higher than Friday, peaking near 20 deg C. Overall, with the mostly sunny skies and very little if any convection, high temperatures should be similar to Friday's readings. Heat indices are expected to range from 95 to 100, outside of the higher terrain of WV. Will maintain the current heat headlines through 8 PM.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Crossing cold front brings showers and thunderstorms Sunday - Severe storms possible Sunday - Return to seasonable temperatures on Monday -------------------------------------------------------------------

Very warm temperatures will continue tonight as cloud cover and southwest wind increase tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. A shortwave trough, and the associated cold front, is expected to approach the region Sunday. Most available model output indicates a prefrontal trough will cross the region from mid morning through early afternoon, with the cold front crossing through the late afternoon/evening.

Increasing instability and shear is progged through the day, with ensemble based mean MU CAPE 1500-2000 j/kg by Sunday afternoon/evening, with the max surface based CAPE 2000-3000 j/kg. 0-6km bulk shear values also increase to 35-40kt, with dry mid level air enhancing downdraft CAPE. A low level jet from 35-40kt at 850mb will also enhance the damaging wind potential.

Curved hodographs in the lower levels also indicate some rotation/isolated tornado potential. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of western PA in a Slight Risk for severe storms. The main hazard is expected to be damaging wind, though with the curved hodographs and shear isolated tornadoes are also possible. The Slight Risk area is surrounded by a Marginal Risk, where FROPA timing and shear profiles are slightly less favorable for severe storms.

The cold front will complete its passage Sunday evening, with showers and thunderstorms ending from W-E. Surface high pressure is expected to build under a crossing upper trough on Monday.
This should return mainly dry, and more seasonable weather to the region.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

-Above average temperatures return -Mainly dry to start and end the work week, with shower and thunderstorms for mid week -------------------------------------------------------------------

An upper ridge, ahead of an approaching Midwest trough, will maintain dry weather on Tuesday. Rising 1000-500mb heights and warm advection will drive temperatures from 5 to 10 degrees above average.

The trough, and its associated surface cold front, will approach and cross the region late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening, with shower and thunderstorm chances returning. Building high pressure will return dry weather for Friday, with temperatures closer to average.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR is expected for the majority of the TAF period at most airports. The exception is FKL, where they will likely see some early morning MVFR fog through dawn. A brief pop up shower is possible overnight but should be away from terminals.

Heading into the day, the ridge overhead will likely keep the region capped with only afternoon cumulus developing at about 5 KFT and become scattered. Certainly, a stray storm could develop but confidence is very low and have kept VCTS out of all the TAFs. Winds area expected to be southerly and light. VFR is expected heading into the evening.

Outlook
Restrictions are likely Sunday, along with showers and thunderstorms, as a cold front crosses the region. VFR is then expected again Sunday night through Tuesday under high pressure.

CLIMATE
The area has the potential to break various heat-related records.

There is low probability that climate sites approach the highest temperatures recorded in the 21st century:

Pittsburgh, PA: 98F (7/7/2012)
Wheeling, WV: 98F (7/7/2012)
Morgantown, WV: 101F (7/7/2012)
New Philadelphia, OH: 101F (7/7/2012)
Zanesville, OH: 101F (7/7/2012)
DuBois, PA: 101F (7/22/2011)

There is a low probability many June all-time temperature records may be at stake:

PIT: 98F (1988)
HLG: 100F (1933)
MGW: 99F (1893)
PHD: 99F (1988)
ZZV: 101F (1988,1934)
DUJ: 92F (1969) *RECORD TIED ON 6/18/24*

Daily high maximum (left) and high minimum (right) temperature records are at stake for:

Saturday, June 22nd Pittsburgh, PA: 98F (1988) 75F (1988)
Wheeling, WV: 95F (1923) 72F (2011)
Morgantown, WV: 96F (1923,1988)73F (1988)
New Philadelphia, OH: 97F (1988) 71F (1997)
Zanesville, OH: 99F (1988) 71F (1997)
DuBois, PA: 91F (2022) 68F (2022)

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ007>009-013- 015-016-022-031-074-076>078.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ014- 020-021-029-073-075.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ039>041- 048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ001>004-012- 021-509>511.




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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KAGC ALLEGHENY COUNTY,PA 15 sm29 minSSE 0310 smClear75°F68°F78%30.11
KLBE ARNOLD PALMER RGNL,PA 19 sm27 mincalm10 smClear73°F68°F83%30.13
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