Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sayreville, NJ

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
An upper level low over the Tennessee River Valley is transitioning to an open trough, with deep south/southwesterly flow set up over the eastern US.

Periods of showery rains will move north as the morning goes on, and we may get a break in the rainfall through the midday hours. Some areas, mainly in southern Delmarva, may actually see some areas of sunshine. This will allow some instability to build, potentially resulting in a few thunderstorms as another shortwave comes in. Otherwise, scattered showers will remain around through the day, though it does not look as dreary as yesterday. Thinking rainfall amounts will end up around a half inch to three quarters of an inch, on top of the 0.25"-0.75" we received yesterday. Certainly need the rainfall and thinking the only hydro issues will be poor drainage flooding. Temperatures get into the mid to upper 60s, with 70s over Delmarva with less cloud cover and more heating.

Stays mild tonight, though only expecting some scattered light showers. Some may stay dry though as PoPs are only 30-40% or so with any accumulations under a tenth of an inch. Lows end up in the upper 50s/low 60s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A trough axis passes overhead on Thursday, which will result in continued showers remaining across the region. Showers should be relatively light, though with daytime heating, cannot rule out a few scattered to isolated thunderstorms, mainly from the I-95 corridor on west. Setup is not overly impressive is instability is meager and the forcing is not the strongest, but would expect more of this unsettled pattern to continue through the day until the trough passes late Thursday. Temperatures get into the mid to upper 70s.

A brief period of quiet weather comes Thursday night as a brief period of ridging moves overhead. Skies may actually clear out some Thursday evening into the first half of Thursday Night before a warm front moves in late Thursday/early Friday morning.
Mainly dry through Thursday Night though but still mild, with lows in the upper 50s/low 60s.

A warm front lifts through Friday morning, bringing some light showers as warm air advection ramps up. This will allow temperatures to climb into the 80s on Friday, with more instability in place as well. Forcing looks rather weak though with ridging not far away and only a weak shortwave coming in and no advancing cold front until Saturday. Thus, thinking it will be just unsettled with scattered showers, primarily in the afternoon with a few thunderstorms mixed in. Showers diminish in coverage with the loss of daytime heating on Friday Night, but still cannot rule out some light sprinkles through the night.
Mild pattern continues with low to mid 60s for lows.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Saturday looks to be the day to monitor for any severe weather.
Forcing strengthens with an incoming potent shortwave digging from the Great Lakes. At the surface, an area of low pressure slides by to the north Saturday into Saturday Night, with a cold front advancing towards and eventually through the region.
Temperatures will climb into the 80s and it will feel quite muggy ahead of the front. Instability looks to be on the order of around 1000 J/kg with relatively favorable shear. Thinking any showers and thunderstorms will come in the afternoon and evening as the front arrives. Main concern would be damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours, but still a good amount of uncertainty being a few days out. Coverage in showers and thunderstorms diminishes into the night with the loss of daytime heating and passage of the front.

Sunday and beyond actually looks pretty nice for now. With the front coming through, it should result in dry conditions and seasonable weather to close out the weekend and start next week.
Perhaps a little gusty on Sunday, but nothing that looks too significant.

AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today.. MVFR and some IFR vsby/cigs have finally materialized this morning with scattered -RA/SHRA around. This should continue for much of the day, with a low chance of thunder this afternoon. Have kept this out of TAFs given the low confidence and low probability. ESE winds 10 to 15 kt with 20 to 25 kt gusts. The gusts will decrease by midday, and winds down to around 10 kt or less for the afternoon and evening. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Sub-VFR with intervals of IFR likely through Thursday with showers and a few thunderstorms. Conditions should improve a bit Friday and Saturday during the day before showers and thunderstorms move in for the afternoon and evening. VFR conditions look to come Saturday Night and beyond.

MARINE
The Gale Warning was canceled, as gale force wind gusts never materialized and no additional threat of gale force gusts is expected. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for all coastal waters. The Delaware Bay advisory runs through noon.
Southern ocean waters goes through tonight, and the northern waters through Thursday morning.

Winds will diminish considerably by this afternoon, however seas will remain elevated near 4-6 feet through tonight into early Thursday morning.

Outlook...

Advisory conditions with seas persisting near 5 feet on the ocean waters until during the daytime on Thursday could result in an extension to the SCA. Showers and spotty thunderstorms will also be a concern on the waters through this entire period.

Sub-SCA conditions should then take hold by Thursday evening and continue through Sunday However, showers and spotty thunderstorms may continue to be a risk through Saturday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A new Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the tidal Delaware River for the high tide late tonight into early Thursday morning. Elsewhere, no additional coastal flooding is expected.

Minor coastal flooding is forecast with the overnight high tides Thursday night and Friday night as well, especially along the upper reaches of the tidal Delaware River. Additional advisories may be needed.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM to 7 AM EDT Thursday for PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM to 7 AM EDT Thursday for NJZ017>019.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ430-431.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for ANZ450>452.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ453>455.