Monday, June21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Madaket, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:10AMSunset 8:24PM Monday June 21, 2021 2:50 AM EDT (06:50 UTC) Moonrise 4:51PMMoonset 2:37AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madaket, MA
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location: 40.5, -70.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 210538 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 138 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. Any isolated showers or storms that develop during the evening diminish. Stratus and patchy fog expected across the south coast tonight. Hot and very humid conditions arrive Monday which will be followed by showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out. The heat and humidity break late Tuesday and Tuesday night, with much more seasonable and less humid weather Wednesday. Warmer and more humid conditions return Friday and Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/. 100 AM Update .

Forecast remains on track. Made slight adjustments to fall in line with observed trends. Urban areas have stayed even warmer than expected this far into the evening with BOS and HFD at 77 and 73 degrees respectively. Visibilities have fallen at the Islands to 6 miles while Newport RI has fallen to 8 miles. Should see visibilities continue to fall as fog develops along the South Coast, Cape, and Islands as the night progresses. Still not confident that we'll see widespread visibilities of <1/4 mile for 3 hours, so will be holding off on a dense fog advisory for now.

Highlights

* Any isolated showers/storms across western MA/CT diminishing during the evening.

* Dry and quiet weather with stratus and fog spreading into the south coast.

Ridge axis builds over southern New England this evening and shifts into northern New England late tonight. A shortwave lifts across the central Great Lakes into the eastern Great Lakes by late tonight. At the surface a warm front lifts into northern New England, while southern New England remains within the warm sector.

Main concern in the immediate near term is the isolated thunderstorm potential across the eastern slopes of the Berkshires. Latest SPC Mesoanalysis shows 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE in place. There is roughly upper 50 to mid 60 degree dew points in place across the region, but other than the heat/very weak PVA we are really lacking a lifting mechanism especially with ridging aloft. Some CAM guidance shows isolated activity developing in response to the heating, so have left slight chances of precipitation across the eastern slopes of the Berkshires into the evening.

Persistent southerly flow will advect mid to upper 60 degree dew point air into the region tonight. Given ocean temperatures are in the low to mid 60s am anticipating stratus/fog to develop and lift in across much of south coast. Not completely out of the question that a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed for portions of the south coast in future updates, but confidence is too low at this point in time. Mild with low temperatures in the 60s across the region.

SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. Highlights

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible especially later in the day and into the evening. Isolated severe storms are possible especially across western MA and CT. Main threats are damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours.

* Should see any shower/storm activity diminishing in intensity and coverage Monday night. Claudette makes its closest pass by southern New England late tonight.

Persistent cyclonic flow during this period with a trough digging from the western Great Lakes into the eastern Great Lakes. Will see the energy associated with Claudette lift from the Carolinas to well offshore by late Monday night. At the surface a cold front will slide through the region.

Monday and Monday night .

Main concern is the potential for strong to severe storms across western portions of the CWA. Will have southerly flow advecting in moisture from Claudette with it well south of the region. This brings in 1.5 to 2.0 inch PWATs into southern New England and very muggy dew points (upper 60s to low 70s). Given the moisture in place and warm cloud layer depths of 3.5 to 4 km any showers/storms that develop will bring the potential for heavy downpours. Instability is on the order of a 1000-2000 J/kg across western areas with an overlap of 25-35 kts of wind shear. There may be a bit of an offset timing wise between the shear/instability that could hinder storms as they move into our area. The higher shear is available earlier in the day before the instability wanes late. This seems to play out with how the latest CAMs show things developing across NY before diminishing/weakening as it moves into our area late in the day. This makes sense given mid level lapse rates are quite poor, but low level lapse rates are around 7-8 degrees C/km until we lose heating late in the day. Given that the shear vectors become more parallel to the forcing am anticipating a more linear storm mode as shown by the CAMs. There is a window where shear is roughly oblique to the forcing, which would support discrete/linear mode. Thinking that the risk is higher for stronger wind gusts given am anticipating more of a linear mode with a few hundred to 1000 J/kg of DCAPE in place. Agree with the latest SPC outlook highlighting far western areas. Think that if things hold together as they move east storms will remain more elevated in nature especially given the loss of heating. Thinking the 5-10 PM timeframe the previous shift suggested still looks good.

Temperatures top out into the 80s across much of southern New England with some 90 degree readings in the Merrimack and CT River Valley. Expect it to be a bit gusty at times given a 20-40 kt low level jet in place across southern New England. Cold front working its way through Monday night. May actually be dry for much of the region, but given the front moving through and the moisture in place have kept slight chance to chances of precipitation. Think this lull is due to the ridging aloft, but given the environment opted to keep slight chance to chances of precip. Another mild night with lows in the 60s to low 70s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. Highlights

* Tropical system passes well off the coast on Tuesday before a cold front brings a threat for convection later in the day

* Humidity and Temperatures drop for Wed/Thurs, bringing seasonable and pleasant conditions

* Warming trend through the weekend, shower possible Saturday, more unsettled for Sunday

Tuesday .

Tuesday looks to be the most interesting day of the long-term forecast. At this time, it appears that Tropical depression/storm Claudette will pass well to our south and east before a cold front swings in from the west. Convective potential remains the biggest question during the afternoon on Tuesday. Ahead of the front, surface CAPE values are incredibly varied between guidance, with most recent GFS indicating that no surface CAPE will be present and the ECMWF showing values approaching 800-1200 J/kg. CAMs, such as the HREF, suggest that even the MUCAPE struggles to reach 500J/kg. Winds will prevail from the southwest prior to switching to NW upon the passage of the cold front, which doesn't provide a tremendous lifting mechanism, especially in the case where we have no surface based instability. Mid level lapse rates also look to be poor at only 4.5-5 C/km. Tuesday does have some favorable conditions for thunderstorms, especially the 0-6 km shear of 70 kts and K indicies honing in on the 35 to 40 range. All in all, the convection Tuesday looks less favorable compared to Monday evening and if it does develop will likely be limited to eastern MA and RI ahead of the frontal boundary between 17 and 21Z.

Otherwise, seasonable temperatures and muggy dewpoints persist into Tuesday ahead of the cold front. Highs are expected to range from the upper 70s west to low 80s east. Lows will drop to between 50 and 60 degrees overnight, highest across the Cape and Islands where the front passed through latest. Dewpoint depressions will likely be too great for fog to develop overnight, but patchy fog is possible across the Cape, Islands, and coastal waters before the cold frontal passage.

Wednesday through Friday .

Wednesday and Thursday look to be seasonable with low dewpoints and clear skies. A light northwest wind on Wednesday will bring in dry air from Canada; dewpoints will linger in the 40s across the interior, 50s at the coast. Winds will shift to the south/southwest on Thursday, suggesting that Thursday may be the warmer of the two days by a few degrees thanks to enhanced warm air advection.

Overall, high temperatures expected to top out in the mid to upper 70s on Wednesday and upper 70s and low 80s on Thursday. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 40s and low 50s, coolest in the east, thanks to prime radiational cooling conditions.

There is potential for a weak low pressure system to skirt the south of our region on Friday, which may also coincide with a shortwave feature. This would bring a chance for showers to our area. Most look to remain dry on Friday. Temperatures will again warm into the upper 70s and low 80s with a mix of clouds and sun, cloudiest south of the MA Pike; coinciding with the best rain chances.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks to be bit more unsettled compared to the work week with several chances for showers. Low pressure may pass to our north and west across the Great Lakes on Saturday evening, with and associated cold front passing through our area, bringing another chance of showers along with it. A second shortwave may bring a better chance for appreciable precipitation to our area on Sunday. Muggy to borderline oppressive dewpoints return for the second half of the weekend. Temperatures will rise into the mid 80s both days and fall into the 60s overnight; lows will be limited by dewpoints between 60 and 70 degrees.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 12Z . High confidence in trends, moderate in timing.

VFR conditions persist at the majority of terminals. IFR/VLIFR ceilings and visibilities develop at The Cape/Islands terminals and possibly PVD as fog and low-stratus overspread the south coast.

Monday . High confidence.

Visibilities should improve at PVD/Cape terminals, but IFR/LIFR ceilings expected to persist through the day. Fog may linger for the Islands for much of the day. Elsewhere VFR. Southerly winds at 10-15 kts and gusts of 20-25 kt.

Monday night . Moderate confidence.

Chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms after 00Z. Have not included VCSH/VCTS in latest TAF package as details are still vague with respect to timing and coverage of showers/storms. Nonetheless expecting IFR/LIFR ceilings/visibilities to develop after sunset beginning at The Cape/Islands and spreading across the interior. This will be a product of fog/low stratus. BAF/BDL/ORH/BED may see ceilings stay in the MVFR category.

KBOS TAF . Moderate confidence in TAF. Some uncertainty between MVFR/IFR ceilings after 00Z Tuesday.

KBDL TAF . High Confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/ .

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Wednesday through Friday: VFR.

MARINE. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Small Craft Advisory hoisted for building seas on Monday into Tuesday across the southern outer waters. May need to be expanded to the eastern and southern RI nearshore waters in future updates.

Tonight . High confidence.

Winds out of the SW to S at 10 to 15 kts. Wave heights between 2-4 feet. Stratus/fog moving across the southern and eastern waters. Fog between 1/2 to 3 NM along the south coast and 3 to 5 NM across the eastern waters.

Monday through Monday night.

Southerly winds at 10-20 kts on Monday gusts of 20-25 kts. Briefly shifting to the SE/SW late Monday night at 10-15 kts. Waves building to 4-6 ft across the outer waters and 2-4 ft elsewhere. Stratus/fog diminishing on Monday and redeveloping Monday night. Lowest visibilities between 1/4 to 3 NM.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/ .

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms, patchy fog. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Wednesday through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ255-256.

SYNOPSIS . BL/KS NEAR TERM . RM SHORT TERM . BL LONG TERM . KS AVIATION . RM MARINE . BL/KS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44075 17 mi171 min WSW 7.8 69°F 67°F1011.4 hPa (+0.5)
44076 26 mi171 min WSW 9.7 71°F 68°F1011.5 hPa (+0.0)
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 42 mi55 min 66°F5 ft
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 61 mi57 min SW 7 G 11 67°F 71°F1009.9 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 66 mi51 min S 8.9 G 9.9 1010 hPa (-1.5)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 71 mi41 min 9.7 G 12 67°F

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Nantucket, Nantucket Memorial Airport, MA60 mi58 minSSW 71.50 miFog/Mist68°F65°F90%1009.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KACK

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2 days agoSW9SW8SW8W8W8SW9SW8SW10SW10SW9SW11SW11SW13SW12S11SW12SW12S12S11SW11SW11SW11SW12SW10

Tide / Current Tables for No Man's Land, Massachusetts
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No Man's Land
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Mon -- 02:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:02 AM EDT     2.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:03 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:33 PM EDT     3.81 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.61.322.72.92.72.11.30.60.1-00.10.61.32.33.13.73.83.22.41.50.70.2

Tide / Current Tables for No Man's Land, Massachusetts (2)
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No Man's Land
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:57 AM EDT     3.04 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:04 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:26 PM EDT     3.94 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.71.32.12.832.82.21.40.60.1-0.100.61.42.33.33.93.93.32.51.50.60.1

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