Tuesday, December1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Madaket, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 4:17PM Tuesday December 1, 2020 12:04 AM EST (05:04 UTC) Moonrise 6:16PMMoonset 8:53AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madaket, MA
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location: 40.5, -70.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 010331 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1031 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

SYNOPSIS. A strong low pressure will pass well to our west this evening and tonight, bringing a period of strong to damaging wind gusts along with heavy rain and localized street flooding. It remains mild on Tuesday with a few left over showers possible, but not a washout. More seasonable temperatures will return by Wednesday with mainly dry weather persisting through Thursday. There is the potential for a coastal storm by this weekend or early next week but whether that comes to fruition remains uncertain.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/.

1015 PM Update .

As the 994 mb sfc low continues to lift north from the NY Tug Hill Plateau into S Quebec, the heavier rain has also lifted north into New Hampshire. The nose of the 70-80 kt 850 mb LLJ is currently over Eastern MA and the Cape and Islands. We are watching an area of convection just south of Eastern Long Island and Block Island, and that could give Eastern MA another round of heavier showers and even a rumble or two of thunder. This could lead to localized poor drainage flooding, given that up to 2 inches of rain have already fallen but no significant issues expected. Headlines wise, have taken down Wind Advisories over Central MA/Northern CT and converted High Wind Warnings to Wind Advisories over Eastern MA and RI. The rest of the night will be very mild though with temperatures staying around 60F with the cold front still well to the west.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION .

630 pm update .

Warm sector has certainly arrived, with dewpoints and temperatures as warm at 60 degrees as far north as Fitchburg. These abnormally warm temperatures will stick around overnight given the low's placement to our west. Winds continue to gust 40 to 60 mph with locally higher gusts, and the period of strongest gusts will continue for the next 2-4 hours. Mesoanalysis indicates 25 to 75 J/kg of 0-3 km MLCAPE edging into SW Connecticut, right in line with where we see scattered thunderstorms lifting north from Long Island and in western CT. We still expect the main severe threat to remain to our south this evening, but can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm pulling down a particularly strong gust or two.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Tuesday into Tuesday night oddly enough our shot of cold air aloft comes from the southwest, as the low lifts north into Canada and wraps sub 0C 850 mb air around it into Southern New England. Expect one more day of warmer than average temps on Tuesday, however, thanks to continued low level warm southerly flow. Given the warm advection at the sfc and cold advection aloft, could see scattered instability showers during the day on Tuesday. This also means winds remain gusty as the jet overhead is much weaker, but more apt to mix down. Winds will gust 25 to 30 mph. Temperatures finally make a return to closer to normal by Tuesday night with lows falling into the 30s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Highlights .

* Dry with near seasonable temps for the rest of the week.

* "Potential" for a coastal low late next weekend.

Overview .

Closed low slowly lifts north into Canada through end of week, keeping temperatures near more seasonable levels for early December. We may see some rain/snow showers across interior Tue/Wed as series of short waves rotate through region, but overall dry weather is expected.

Large scale pattern should feature rising heights over Greenland and trough centered over Great Lakes. As ridge builds downstream, models try to close off another upper low somewhere over Northeast or off coast. While this favors some sort of coastal low development, there us obviously a lot of uncertainty in a Day 6-7 forecast, since a lot of moving parts need to come together. Something we'll monitor over next few days and expect to see usual wobbles in deterministic solutions. A peek at ensemble member low positions shows not only a lot of spread in track but in timing. Airmass in place ahead of system doesn't seem to be unusually cold so this may very well favor rain as opposed to snow, but all options are on table depending on where upper low closes off (if it ends up doing that at all). Keep in mind it's just as possible that low could end up passing far offshore or not even develop at all!

AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

00z Update .

Tonight . Moderate confidence.

MVFR to IFR conditions for all sites with showers, locally heavy and embedded t-storms. Strong SSE wind gusts 40-50 kt is expected to continue in the coastal plain along and SE of I-95 corridor for the next several hours, lingering over Cape/Islands through about midnight. 25-40 kt gusts across western MA and northern CT. LLWS expected too. Bulk of heavy rain should exit by midnight, but locally heavy showers and embedded t-storms may linger over Cape/Islands overnight.

Tuesday . Moderate confidence.

Mainly MVFR to localized IFR to start, trending MVFR to low VFR by the afternoon. South winds turning SSW by the afternoon with gusts up to 25 kt possible.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with localized MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

KBOS TAF . Moderate confidence in the TAF.

KBDL TAF . Moderate confidence in the TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/ .

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

Wednesday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy.

Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE. * Existing Storm Warnings have been downgraded to Gale Warnings.

Gale Warnings for all waters as strong low level jet slowly moves north from our waters. Southerly gusts up to 45 kt possible with building seas to 12-16 ft over outer waters. Heavy downpours and embedded thunderstorms will also reduce vsbys at times. Winds comes down 25 to 30 kts on Tuesday with seas 10 to 13 ft. By Tuesday night winds and seas come down slowly.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/ .

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 20 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Strong southerly winds late this afternoon and evening along the south coast of MA/RI. Astronomical tides are fortunately low, and it will likely take a 3+ ft surge to produce minor coastal flooding along the south coast. Surge forecast around 2 ft but could get up to 3 ft in Narragansett Bay in a worst case scenario due to channeling effect. This would result in very minor flooding along portions of Narragansett Bay. However, timing of highest surge may lag the high tide by a few hours. We will continue to monitor this potential for the this evening high tide cycle, but do not expect significant impacts.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ007-016>024. RI . Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for RIZ002>008. MARINE . Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ230>237-251. Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ250-254>256.

SYNOPSIS . Frank/BW NEAR TERM . BW/Chai SHORT TERM . BW LONG TERM . JWD AVIATION . BW/JWD MARINE . BW/JWD TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 42 mi69 min 57°F19 ft
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 61 mi65 min 61°F 50°F1003.8 hPa (-1.2)
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 66 mi65 min SSE 37 G 39 1000.2 hPa (-0.9)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 71 mi45 min SSE 29 G 41 51°F

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Nantucket, Nantucket Memorial Airport, MA60 mi72 minSSE 32 G 425.00 miFog/Mist and Windy62°F59°F90%1003.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KACK

Wind History from ACK (wind in knots)
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2 days agoN3N7N4N3N5N3N4NE3N7N6N6N4NW4W7W9W5W6W6W7NW6NW11NW9NW12NW12

Tide / Current Tables for No Man's Land, Massachusetts
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No Man's Land
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:19 AM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:51 AM EST     3.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:56 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:10 PM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:14 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:11 PM EST     2.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.10.10.411.72.53.13.332.31.50.70.30.10.20.51.11.82.42.72.521.3

Tide / Current Tables for No Man's Land, Massachusetts (2)
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No Man's Land
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:23 AM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:46 AM EST     3.42 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:56 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:06 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:14 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:07 PM EST     2.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.2-000.411.82.63.23.43.12.41.50.70.2-00.10.51.11.82.42.72.62.11.3

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.