Tuesday, July14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Madaket, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:22AMSunset 8:19PM Tuesday July 14, 2020 12:25 PM EDT (16:25 UTC) Moonrise 1:00AMMoonset 2:36PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ273 615 Am Edt Mon Jun 29 2020
.a strong Thunderstorm over the waters... The areas affected include... Ocean waters from Montauk ny to marthas vineyard from 25 to 40 nm offshore... At 614 am edt, doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and small hail. This Thunderstorm was located 22 nm south of the coastal waters southeast of block island, moving east at 20 knots. The strong Thunderstorm will remain over mainly open waters. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Expect gusty winds to around 30 knots...briefly rough seas and lightning strikes. Consider heading for safe harbor until this storm passes. Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible and keep away from ungrounded metal objects. && lat...lon 4069 7155 4081 7054 4061 7043 4059 7084 4053 7107 4047 7140
ANZ200 1016 Am Edt Tue Jul 14 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Small crafts will continue through this evening for rhode island's coastal waters and waters south of block island, martha's vineyard, and nantucket. Additionally, a high surf advisory continues until 8 pm today. Today we can expect pop-up afternoon showers or a Thunderstorm. Then high pressure returns Wednesday and Thursday, providing fair weather. Sct'd showers and Thunderstorms return for Friday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madaket, MA
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location: 40.5, -70.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 141454 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1054 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020

SYNOPSIS. Strong to severe thunderstorms possible across portions of southern New England this afternoon. Main threats are damaging wind gusts, hail and heavy rainfall which could bring localized flash flooding. Will be cooler in comparison to the past several days, but the humidity remains. High pressure then brings fair weather for Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms return early Friday and Friday night. High pressure then bring rain-free but very warm weather for Saturday and Sunday. Another cold front may bring a few thunderstorms Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. 1040 AM Update:

Another afternoon of scattered to numerous thunderstorms, a few of which may become strong to severe. On that front, we are already off and running early as storms have already developed basically along or near I-95/Route 128 with a recent spotter report of half-inch hail in Needham. These storms will progress eastward towards the eastern MA waters over the next hour to 90 minutes.

Recent CAMs blossom scattered to numerous storms progressing southeastward from NH/VT into northern MA across the remainder of Southern New England into the afternoon, fostered by the cold pool aloft associated with the upper low. While effective bulk shear decreases through the day with aprch of upper low, and temepratures/dewpoints are not as high as yesterday, the cold pool aloft is resulting in somewhat more steep lapse rates in mid- levels and will help sustain at least moderate convective instability. Strong to damaging winds will be the main severe hazard, though instances of hail certainly will be possible given the cooler profiles/steeper lapse rates aloft. Localized torrential downpours is a related risk, and while there aren't the signals for storm training like we saw yesterday in NE MA and northwest Windham County CT, if torrential rains fall over a vulnerable spot localized street flooding could develop. Storms are expected to decrease in number and intensity by early evening.

Given expected numerous coverage of storms, a handful of which may become strong to severe, have opted for an SPS to bring awareness to the strong/severe thunder threat.

Previous Discussion .

* Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible across southern New England today. Main threats from storms are damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall, which could produce localized flash flooding. In addition, hail cannot be ruled out.

* Cooler temperatures in comparison to the past couple of days.

A negatively tilted trough digs into northern New England today. The surface low associated with the trough will remain offshore into the Gulf of Maine.

Expect the surface low to reinforce cool, stable onshore flow across eastern MA and RI. The interior will see north to northeast winds throughout the day. How strong this onshore flow is bring some questions in regards to the thunderstorm activity today. However, further from the coast there is a better opportunity for showers and storms.

Aloft the 500 hPa trough will dig into northern New England. This will bring an anomalously cold air mass into the region aloft with 500 hPa temperatures between -10 to -15 degrees Celsius. This cold pool moving in aloft in combination with the trough overhead and diurnal heating will result in scattered shower and thunderstorm development. Dew points not expected to drop much despite the northerly to northeasterly flow with readings generally in the mid to upper 60s. So, there is plenty of moisture available.

Stability values across New England range generally from 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE. Though the ARW/NMM does feature values increasing to 2000-2500 J/kg. Bulk shear values are around 20 to 30 kts within the 0-6 km layer. So not completely ideal wind shear aloft, but this can be compensated for by the higher instability. Low level lapse rates are expected to increase to 7 to 8 degrees Celsius per km. Mid level lapse rates are supportive to maintain updrafts. Models keep values around 6 to 7 degrees Celsius per km. Do have a few hundred J/kg of DCAPE and there is a decent amount of CAPE within the hail growth zone. Forcing is a bit weaker today in comparison to yesterday, so that is also a question. Think the best chance for strong to severe storms will be across central MA into the Merrimack Valley. This is also supported by some 2-5 km updraft helicity swaths per the HREF and SREF Craven Brooks SIG Severe Index values greater than or equal to 10k. This is also indicated per the SPC Day 1 Outlook.

Along with the threat of strong to severe storms there will be the threat of heavy rainfall. Will see PWAT values between 1.25 to 1.5 inches, which is approaching the 75th percentile per SPC Sounding Climo for CHH. The HREF neighborhood probability matched mean guidance does indicate that there is a 50 to 70 percent chance of 3-hr QPF values greater than 1 in, but no probabilities of 3-hr QPF values greater than 3 in as was the case yesterday. This again highlighting the greatest risk across central MA into the Merrimack Valley this afternoon. Do have some concerns for northeast MA given that storms moved through today, so will need to closely monitor.

Will be cooler today in comparison to the past couple of days. Flow at 850 and 925 hPa will be generally out of the northwest to north. This will advect cooler air in. Highs range from the mid 70s to the low 80s, though there may be come mid 80 degree readings across the CT River Valley.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/. Highlights

* Any showers and storms diminishing during the evening. Low clouds linger tonight due to onshore flow. Much cooler with lows falling into the 50s across the interior and the low 60s along the coast.

* Drier weather across southern New England on Wednesday. Cannot rule out an isolated shower across the CT River Valley. Cooler temperatures continue with readings generally in the 70s.

Tonight .

Nearly neutrally tilted trough slides offshore. Behind the trough a ridge axis will build from the central Great Lakes into the eastern Great Lakes.

Shower and storms diminishing as the trough lifts offshore and due to the loss of heating. Onshore flow persists and expect low clouds to advect further inland. Dew points falling into the upper 50s and low 60s across the region. Will feels much more comfortable. Low temperatures falling into the 50s across the interior and the low 60s along the coast.

Wednesday .

Ridge axis building into western portions of New England from the eastern Great Lakes. This will provide dry and quiet weather across the majority of southern New England. Will have cool northeasterly winds becoming easterly at 925 hPa. This will continue to advect cooler air in. Dew points remain comfortable with readings in the upper 50s and low 60s. High temperatures generally in the 70s. Could have some low 80s across the CT River Valley.

Not out of the question that the combination of the easterly flow and diurnal heating results in some orographically driven showers across the higher terrain of CT and western MA. Little to no instability present, so do not anticipate any thunderstorms.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Highlights .

* Mostly dry Thursday then rain and thunderstorms return late Thursday night and Friday

* Warmer temperatures and increasing humidity for the weekend

Details .

High pressure remains in control at the sfc with mid level ridging aloft Wed night and Thursday. The pattern breaks down late Thursday night and Friday as a mid level shortwave and frontal system swings through bringing the return of rain and thunderstorms. Zonal flow and high pressure influence keep dry and increasingly hot/humid conditions in the forecast for the weekend into next week.

High pressure nosing down from Quebec remains in place Wednesday night into Thursday. This keeps southern New England largely dry with partly cloudy skies as moisture lingers around 850 mb. Temperature-wise things remain relatively comfortable and below normal; in the low 80s inland, mid-upper 70s east. This will be the last day of the cooling NE flow influence, however, as winds shift out of the SE late in the day and SW by Thursday night as the high moves out.

On its heels is a sfc low over southern Canada moving into northern New England Thursday night and Friday. Timing has been slowed down a bit, but by early Friday morning WAA showers should have moved into western MA ahead of the cold front which moves through around late Friday night or early Saturday morning. Ahead of the cold front convective parameters are marginally favorable for a few strong storms (CAPE near 1000 J/kg and bulk shear of 25-30 kts) but lapse rates are rather poor which could be a limiting factor. Thunderstorm potential will likely be dependent on the timing of the cold front which, if it comes through as slowly as it's looking currently, may be too late to take advantage of the more favorable afternoon temperature profile. Stay tuned.

For the weekend the post frontal airmass looks drier with high pressure building over southern New England. This brings with it the return of normal to above normal temperatures nearing 90 F. The airmass becomes less comfortable too, as higher humidity returns on southerly flow; dewpoints once again approaching 70 F.

AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

15z TAF Update:

Today . Moderate confidence.

While VFR most of the time (except MVFR-IFR Cape/Islands), expecting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop 17-00z. Already are some storms as of 15z near BOS and have a short period of VCTS. Though there may be a break in the next hour or two, expecting that after 17z that storms will again fire up in greater number. A few may become strong to locally severe with gusty winds and hail and short-lived/brief sub-VFR ceiling/visbys. Ceilings should remain VFR, but deteriorate to MVFR to IFR late across coastal locations as flow becomes onshore.

Tuesday night . Moderate confidence

Northeasterly flow at 5 to 10 kts. Should see MVFR to borderline IFR ceilings. Think that the patchy fog will be limited, but best shot will be across locations that receive precipitation today.

Wednesday . High confidence

Any MVFR to borderline IFR ceilings improving to VFR during the morning as high pressure builds in. Only exception is across Cape Cod and the Islands where MVFR ceilings may linger. Winds shifting to an easterly direction.

KBOS Terminal . Moderate confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/ .

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible.

Thursday: VFR.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Saturday: VFR.

MARINE. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect across the southern waters due to wave heights around 5 ft. Low clouds and fog across the eastern waters into late this morning. May need a Small Craft Advisory late tonight across the eastern waters due to building waves. This is a result of strengthening northeast winds. Have held off in the current update as have some doubts in wind speeds and resultant waves.

High Surf Advisory remains in effect for the Islands, including Block Island, until Tuesday evening for south facing beaches due to the rip current risk and breaking 4-6 ft waves in the surf zone.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/ .

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday through Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ023-024. RI . High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for RIZ008. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ235- 237-255-256.

SYNOPSIS . BL/BW NEAR TERM . BL/Loconto/BW SHORT TERM . BL LONG TERM . BW AVIATION . BL/Loconto/BW MARINE . BL/Loconto/BW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 42 mi59 min 71°F5 ft
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 61 mi55 min 74°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 66 mi85 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 1013.2 hPa (+1.4)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 71 mi35 min N 14 G 18 1 ft1011.5 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Nantucket, Nantucket Memorial Airport, MA60 mi32 minNNW 1410.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F69°F77%1012 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KACK

Wind History from ACK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S8S8S7S7S4SW7SW6SW4SW8SW8SW7S7SW7SW5SW5SW5SW3W5W5NW4N4N9N14
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2 days agoS9S8S12S10S8S12S9S9S10S10S10S11S11S10SW11SW11S7SW9SW10S12SW13SW14SW13SW14
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Tide / Current Tables for No Man's Land, Massachusetts
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No Man's Land
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Tue -- 12:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:58 AM EDT     2.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:56 AM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:34 PM EDT     2.84 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:29 PM EDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.92.32.42.21.81.410.80.80.811.41.92.42.82.82.521.61.210.90.9

Tide / Current Tables for Nomans Land, Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.