Tuesday, October22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Madaket, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 5:55PM Tuesday October 22, 2019 10:00 AM EDT (14:00 UTC) Moonrise 12:05AMMoonset 3:01PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ273 Expires:201909121330;;088445 Fzus71 Kbox 121228 Mwsbox Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Boston/norton Ma 828 Am Edt Thu Sep 12 2019 Anz237-256-273-121330- 828 Am Edt Thu Sep 12 2019
.a strong Thunderstorm approaching the waters... The areas affected include... Block island sound... Coastal waters from Montauk ny to marthas vineyard extending out to 20 nm south of block island... Ocean waters from Montauk ny to marthas vineyard from 25 to 40 nm offshore... At 827 am edt, doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots. This Thunderstorm was located 13 nm south of block island, moving east at 20 knots. Locations impacted include... The coastal waters southeast of block island and buoy 44097 southeast of block island. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible and keep away from ungrounded metal objects. && lat...lon 4116 7161 4115 7160 4115 7156 4116 7154 4119 7134 4117 7133 4121 7121 4123 7100 4082 7101 4082 7166 4092 7173 4114 7174
ANZ200 716 Am Edt Tue Oct 22 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres over the maritimes moves farther offshore today. A cold front will then pass through tonight into Wed, bringing S winds along with a chance of rain. High pres and dry weather follow for the rest of this week. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madaket, MA
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location: 40.5, -70.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 221102
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
702 am edt Tue oct 22 2019

Synopsis
Weak high pressure will bring dry weather this morning. Spotty
light drizzle rain develops this afternoon, with more widespread
rain tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Behind this
front, dry conditions and seasonable temperatures follow
Wednesday afternoon into Friday. Another cold front may bring a
some showers late Friday into early Saturday. High pressure
builds in for most of next weekend before another chance of rain
next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
7 am update...

cirrus and some low clouds which developed over central eastern
ma and ri this morning have kept temperatures warmer than
expected. Temperatures hover in the 40s for much of southern new
england; 50s along the coast. Regional radar continues to show
light returns, but much if not all of this is falling as virga
given the very dry mid levels which will take some time to
saturate. The most likely location to see appreciable precip
first will be southeast ma by early afternoon where moist low
level flow undercuts the drier mid levels. Expecting at least a
little bit of sunshine to start the day, but it shouldn't last
long as clouds continue to thicken and lower.

Previous discussion...

22 00z guidance continued to advertise the idea of a very dry
layer between 5-10 kft. This dry air will need to be overcome
before rainfall can begin in earnest. This should take most of
the day. Right now, am focused on two areas most likely to see
rainfall during the afternoon. The first area will be towards
southeast ma where onshore flow should result in lower clouds
and some patchy drizzle. The other area will be along and west
of the ct river, which may be in range of an approaching mid
level shortwave and surface cold front.

Clouds will limit sunshine into this afternoon. Below normal
temperatures are expected.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
Tonight... Approaching mid level trough and upper jet combined
with deepening moisture plume will result in an area of
rain showers moving west to east ahead of a cold front. Most of
the best dynamics still appear to be focused to our north. Have
increased pops due to high confidence in measurable
precipitation, however, expecting rainfall total to be under an
inch through Wednesday morning region-wide. Lowest rainfall
totals towards the south coast.

Wednesday... High pressure builds in behind a cold front. Winds
turn west. Decreasing clouds and becoming drier. Near normal
temperatures.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
Highlights...

* dry and seasonable through Thursday
* light showers possible late Friday into Saturday
* dry latter half of the weekend before rain chances return next
week
Wednesday night through Thursday...

looking at the synoptic pattern for this period we see a broad
upper trough over the central eastern us centered around a
hudson bay low, while ridging over the eastern pacific moves
onshore along the west coast. By Wednesday night the latest lobe
of energy rotating around main low has moved out bringing
rising heights and building surface high pressure. This together
with a very dry post frontal airmass will bring clear skies and
dry weather well into Thursday. By Thursday afternoon wrap
around mid level moisture may introduce some scattered mid high
clouds but nothing significant. Most noticeable sensible weather
would be some breezy winds as model soundings indicate a well
mixed boundary layer tapping into the 25-30kt 850mb jet.

Friday and Saturday...

next chance of rain comes during this period, though still some
question to the timing and extent. Increasing moisture ahead of
an approaching shortwave trough will bring clouds on Friday,
preceding rain chances Friday evening and especially overnight.

Confidence remains on the low end given significant guidance
disagreement on the weekend pattern... GFS continuing to dig
deeper while the ec depicts a shallower, more transient wave.

For now going with a blend of guidance, favoring the quicker
solution; expecting to see showers move in around late Friday
and linger through early to mid day Saturday. Seasonable
temperatures Friday in the low 60s followed by a bit of a cool
down, in the 50s on Saturday. Behind the rain high pressure
builds in for cool, clear night Saturday. This may lead to some
frost Sunday morning with lows in the 30s.

Sunday and Monday...

increasing model spread, substantial by late weekend, leads to
decreased forecast confidence this late in the period. Seems to
be good consensus that Sunday stands a better chance of being
dry, while another frontal wave may bring rain back to the
forecast to start the week. For now introducing rain chances
during the overnight hours Sunday into early Monday.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ...

12z update...

today... High confidence in trends, moderate confidence in
timing. MainlyVFR to start except for some sites in eastern ma
and ri where fog and low clouds have developed. These should be
improving in the next two hours. CIGS trending to low- endVFR
to MVFR through the morning towards the south coast, with areas
of ifr this afternoon. Areas of drizzle and light rain
develop this afternoon. E winds becoming brisk around 10 to 15
kts, gusts up to 20 kts especially along the shore.

Tonight... High confidence. Widespread ifr lifr developing with
period of rain moving west to east. Winds becoming SE and
strengthening over the waters with 15 to 20 kts sustained,
gusts up to 25 kts right up to the immediate shore.

Wednesday... Mix of conditions ranging from ifr toVFR to start.

BecomingVFR by afternoon.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in TAF trends.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in TAF trends.

Outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ... Moderate confidence.

Wednesday night:VFR. Breezy.

Thursday through Thursday night:VFR.

Friday:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Friday night:VFR. Chance shra.

Saturday:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ...

persistent E NE winds up to 20 kt into this evening with some
25 kt gusts will result in building seas over the waters. S to
se winds develop tonight ahead of a cold front, then become W on
Wednesday. Vsbys reduced in rain and fog late today through
tonight. Small craft advisories expanded into CAPE cod bay and
nantucket sound for tonight, and also extended through
Wednesday across the outer coastal waters.

Outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ... Moderate confidence.

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Thursday through Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Slight chance of rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 4 am edt
Wednesday for anz231-232.

Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for anz235-237.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Wednesday for anz250-
254>256.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 6 pm edt
Wednesday for anz251.

Synopsis... Belk bw
near term... Belk bw
short term... Belk
long term... Bw
aviation... Belk bw
marine... Belk bw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 42 mi31 min 59°F6 ft
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 61 mi49 min NNE 8.9 G 12 57°F 56°F1019.6 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 66 mi61 min NE 15 G 17 56°F 1020.1 hPa (+0.3)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 71 mi61 min 56°F

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Nantucket, Nantucket Memorial Airport, MA60 mi68 minNE 910.00 miOvercast57°F52°F83%1019.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KACK

Wind History from ACK (wind in knots)
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W9W11W7W7CalmNW3NW3W3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE6S8

Tide / Current Tables for No Man's Land, Massachusetts
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No Man's Land
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Tue -- 12:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:38 AM EDT     2.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:24 AM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:08 PM EDT     3.06 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:39 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.62.12.52.62.21.71.10.70.50.50.71.11.62.22.83.12.92.41.71.10.60.40.40.6

Tide / Current Tables for Nomans Land, Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.