Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Madaket, MA

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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 4:17PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 12:52 AM EST (05:52 UTC) Moonrise 5:05PMMoonset 7:07AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ273 Expires:201911010830;;184625 Fzus71 Kbox 010822 Mwsbox Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Boston/norton Ma 422 Am Edt Fri Nov 1 2019 Anz233>237-255-256-273-010830- /o.con.kbox.ma.w.0116.000000t0000z-191101t0830z/ 422 Am Edt Fri Nov 1 2019
.a special marine warning remains in effect until 430 am edt... For the following areas... Block island sound... Buzzards bay... Coastal waters extending out to 25 nm south of marthas vineyard and nantucket... Coastal waters from Montauk ny to marthas vineyard extending out to 20 nm south of block island... Narragansett bay... Ocean waters from Montauk ny to marthas vineyard from 25 to 40 nm offshore... Rhode island sound... Vineyard sound... At 420 am edt, showers were located along a line from fairhaven to southeast of block island. The showers were moving east-northeast at 50 kt. Hazard...wind gusts 34 knots or greater. Source...radar indicated. Impact...small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves. Locations impacted include... The coastal waters southeast of block island, buoy 44097 southeast of block island, menemsha bight, sakonnet point light, mount hope bay, gay head light, rocky point, quonset point, greenwich bay, melville, popasquash point, vineyard sound, plum beach light, buzzards bay, dutch harbor light, west island in buzzards bay, castle hill light, cuttyhunk island, narragansett bay and round hill point. Lat...lon 4076 7161 4111 7148 4166 7145 4176 7127 4174 7117 4184 7112 4181 7106 4163 7119 4148 7117 4164 7107 4153 7103 4156 7096 4169 7092 4164 7089 4166 7079 4175 7076 4178 7061 4110 7085 4063 7151 time...mot...loc 0820z 223deg 70kt 4208 7085 4160 7089 4103 7110 hail...0.00in wind...>34kts
ANZ200 1004 Pm Est Tue Dec 10 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A strong cold front approaches from the west and crosses the waters overnight. High pres will build into the region from the west later Wed into Thu. The high will move off the coast on Fri as low pres approaches from the southwest Fri night into Sat. High pressure builds over the waters by Monday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madaket, MA
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location: 40.5, -70.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 110331 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1031 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS.

A strong cold front crosses the region this evening, followed by colder temperatures with showers changing to a period of accumulating snow later tonight into Wednesday morning, especially south of the Massachusetts Turnpike where a significant impact may occur during the morning commute. Large high pressure will bring cold and dry conditions Thursday and Friday. Developing low pressure across the southeast U.S. will shift up the coast with the potential for periods of heavy rain Friday night into Saturday, possibly beginning as a period of light snow across interior Massachusetts. Drier and cooler weather returns Sunday into Monday. Another storm may impact the region next Tuesday with snow or rain.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/.

1030 PM Update .

Forecast remains on track with rain beginning to transition to snow across the higher terrain of MA. This process will occur in the next few hours across most of interior MA/CT, reaching eastern MA/RI by 3 or 4 AM, and the Cape by 7 AM.

We still think this looks like a general 1 to 4 inches of snow across much of the region. Greatest risk for the higher amounts will probably be across portions of the northeast CT and Worcester Hills, as well as areas in the Foxboro/Sharon areas. The reasoning is better forcing aligning with a bit of elevation. May also see those higher amounts near the south coast, where potential for better banding/snowgrowth may occur. May see lower end totals, perhaps just a coating to 1 inch over portions of the CT River Valley especially in western MA where they are further removed from the forcing.

Still looks like a narrow window, where very strong jet dynamics result in impressive 600-700 mb FGEN and snowgrowth. The limiting factor will be the shorter duration as drier air advecting into the region given WNW just off the deck.

Regardless of exact accumulations, main concern is briefly moderate to heavy snow impacting the Wed AM commute in the Hartford, to Providence, to Worcester and Boston metro areas. Greatest concern will be across RI/SE MA where snow will persist into the late morning hours.

SHORT TERM /2 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/. 7 PM Tuesday Update:

Incoming 18z guidance (NAM/GFS) and the RAP have come in a bit wetter QPF-wise and shifted ever-so-slightly NW than earlier iterations, especially in that 06-12z timeframe on I-95 SW of Boston on to Providence into south-central RI, on into the Cape. Some of which is almost double from its prior run. A good fraction of this ends up being rain as this is the window in which rain changes over, but I did opt to raise liquid- equivalent QPF by about a tenth of an inch or so across SE Mass/RI and a few hundredths higher N/W of I-95. That brings about an increase in snow accumulations by an inch to inch and half into SE Mass and on through RI, and less than a half-inch increase further NW of I-95/Mass Pike. These changes didn't necessitate any changes to headlines.

GFS continues to advertise an axis of mid-level frontogenetic forcing that shifts SE into the early Wed AM period. If that transpires, that FGen could organize some narrow snowbands into the I-95 corridor S of Boston, with moderate/heavy snow in them at times.

Will defer any further adjustments until the 00z guidance comes in.

Prior discussion follows .

* Accumulating snow expected late tonight into Wed AM, with highest amounts south of the Pike

* Significant impact to Wed AM Rush hour possible, especially across parts of NE CT, Rhode Island and Southeast MA

Classic anafrontal wave develops later tonight as robust mid level shortwave digs into the Great Lakes with SW flow aloft across SNE. This will allow deeper moisture axis to set up across the region with impressive jet dynamics as right entrance region of 170-180kt upper jet moves across the region. Initially, around and just after midnight, ptype will be rain in the coastal plain with snow further in the interior. However, rain will flip to snow from I-95 corridor to the south coast from 06-09z and 09-12z for the Cape/Islands where a period of sleet is possible during the transition.

Good synoptic scale forcing with some enhanced mesoscale forcing as band of mid level frontogenesis develops. Pinpointing the location of this banding potential is a challenge but latest guidance suggests it will be mostly south of the Mass Pike. Also, low level NW flow will attempt to bring in some low level dry air, especially to the north of where any mesoscale snow band sets up which may result in a sharp cutoff to the north. But there is also some concern that the drier air will limit duration of heavier snow. So the question is can robust synoptic and mesoscale forcing make up for possible decreasing moisture. We think there will be a brief window for a brief period of moderate to heavy snow late tonight to about mid morning, especially across RI and SE MA to Cape Cod. Timing is not great and this would have a significant impact on the morning commute.

Snowfall accum forecast is quite challenging for several reasons. First, initial QPF as the rain changes to snow may be wasted on melting, the exact location of a mesoscale snow band is uncertain, and low level drier air may impact snowfall intensity. The previous forecast accums still look reasonable and will not make significant changes. Looking at 2 to 4 inches from near the Mass Pike to the south coast, and 1 to 2 inches to the north. But this will depend on where any banding sets up and this could shift north or south of current forecast. The worst case scenario would be a 4-6 inch snowfall which is a low probability occurrence. No changes to winter weather advisories. While some areas in the advisory may not reach criteria, we felt the impact of snow during the morning commute warrants the advisory. Snow will be exiting the region from west to east during the morning followed by increasing sunshine in the afternoon. Highs will be in the 30s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Highlights . * Dry conditions and colder than normal temperatures on Wednesday night and Thursday

* Temperatures moderate on Friday as next weather system brings the potential for heavy rain & localized flooding late Friday into Saturday. Flooding risks may be exacerbated by snowmelt.

* Leftover rain/snow showers linger into early Sunday. Drying out and seasonably cold on Monday before next system arrives on Tuesday. Details .

Wednesday night and Thursday .

As the arctic short wave departs, a large 1040mb high pressure will shift east across the Ohio valley into our region. With strong cold air advection and a fresh snowpack, overnight temperatures on Wednesday will fall into the teens in interior MA and CT and low 20s elsewhere away from the coast. The pressure gradient would keep northwest winds blowing at 10 to 15 kts, which would mean wind chills in the single digits in the interior and teens elsewhere.

On Thursday, despite mostly sunny skies, most locations will see sub- freezing highs due to continued cold air advection. The albedo effect from the snowpack and low sun angle will also help offset radiational heating. Factoring in the northwest winds at 5 to 10 kts, it will feel like in the 20s area wide during the day on Thursday.

By Thursday evening, the center of the high pressure moves offshore into the Canadian Maritimes. Winds become light and variable before switching to the south and southeast after midnight. Clouds will start to increase ahead of the next system.

Friday through Saturday night .

***Heavy Rain and Flood Potential***

A potent low pressure system will move north on Friday. A southeasterly flow should see high temperatures moderate to the mid 30s in the interior and mid 40s near the coast. Shower chances increase during the day ahead of the main system. Enough shallow cold air should linger in interior MA and CT for the precipitation to start off as snow or mixed precipitation. Surface maps also have signatures of cold air drainage from the northeast so there may be a few hours of light snow or mixed precipitation. But as warmer air lifts north, any precipitation should change over to plain rain showers by Friday afternoon.

By Friday night, the 500mb long wave trough starts digging out of the midwest into the southeast states. This will set up a strong southwest mid level wind flow allowing the deep layer moisture to work into the northeast late Friday into early Saturday morning, with PWATs up to 2-3 standard deviations above normal and pockets of 3-4 standard deviations along the coast. A model blend shows 2 to 2.5 inches of QPF across the area while WPC is less bullish, with 1 to 1.5 inches of QPF for Western MA and 1.5 to 2 inches of QPF elsewhere. Heavy rainfall rates on Saturday morning and afternoon could lead to localized flooding. High temperatures on Saturday look to be in the mid to upper 40s across Western MA/CT and mid 50s elsewhere.

An issue of concern is the flooding potential. According to co-op observers' reports this morning, we have about a 6-8 inch snow depth with just under 2 inches snow water equivalent in Northwest MA. That gives us about 30% snow density, which indicates a ripe snowpack. So the combination of snowmelt runoff and heavy rain may result in localized urban and poor drainage flooding. Will continue to monitor river levels for any rises.

Sunday through Tuesday .

Low pressure will shift northeast into Maine and the Maritimes by Sunday morning, though light rain may linger especially near and N of the Mass Pike. Another cold front may wrap around the departing low late Sunday or Sunday night. May see the rain mix with or change to snow, but looks like the best chance may occur across the east slopes of the Berkshires and possibly the northern Worcester hills during the afternoon before tapering off.

Another cold front will sweep across the region by Monday morning, bringing gusty northwest winds and colder air across the region. Expect highs on Monday to be in the 30s and 40s. Another low pressure system looks to impact the area by early Tuesday. With the cold air in place, it should start off as snow before changing to mixed precipitation or rain away from the interior. But since we are still a week away, confidence is extremely low in any specific solution.

AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday/ .

00Z TAF Update:

Tonight and Wednesday . Moderate confidence. Winds shift to the NW tonight behind a strong cold front. Cigs may temporarily lift to VFR in the evening across portions of the interior. Still looking at change from rain to a period of snow 00-06z interior and 06-10z along the coast. MVFR/IFR conditions, with a period of LIFR and brief moderate/heavy snow possible across RI and SE MA late tonight and Wed morning. Conditions quickly improve to VFR with clearing skies from NW to SE late morning into the afternoon.

KBOS Terminal . Moderate confidence in TAF. Rain changing to snow around 06z and ending 13-14z. Slushy 1-2 inches possible with an impact to the morning push.

KBDL Terminal . Moderate confidence in TAF. Rain changing to snow 04-06z ending 12-13z. 1-2 inches possible with an impact to the morning push.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Sunday/ .

Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Thursday Night: VFR.

Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance SHSN.

Friday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA.

Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.

Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE. Short Term /through Wednesday/ . High confidence.

Tonight . Winds shift to NW tonight with a period of G25 kt, especially over the eastern waters. Hazardous seas persist over outer waters. Vsbys reduced in showers and fog, changing to snow late tonight.

Wednesday . Diminishing NW winds and seas but seas remaining AOA 5 ft over the outer waters. Improving vsbys as rain/snow exit.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Sunday/ .

Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers.

Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Chance of rain showers. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for CTZ002>004. MA . Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for MAZ012- 013-015>022. RI . Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for RIZ001>007. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ235-237- 250-254>256.

SYNOPSIS . KJC/Chai NEAR TERM . Frank SHORT TERM . KJC LONG TERM . Chai AVIATION . KJC/Loconto/Chai MARINE . KJC/Loconto/Chai


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 42 mi53 min 53°F9 ft
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 61 mi53 min NNW 6 G 8 44°F 45°F1016.7 hPa (+3.2)
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 66 mi53 min NW 12 G 13 44°F 1018.2 hPa (+4.9)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 71 mi33 min 7.8 G 9.7 43°F1017.3 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Nantucket, Nantucket Memorial Airport, MA60 mi60 minNW 9 miOvercast45°F43°F93%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KACK

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Tide / Current Tables for No Man's Land, Massachusetts
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No Man's Land
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Wed -- 12:10 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:10 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:36 AM EST     3.43 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:00 PM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:14 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:57 PM EST     2.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-000.41.11.92.83.33.42.92.11.20.50.1-0.10.10.51.222.62.92.61.91.10.4

Tide / Current Tables for Nomans Land, Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.