Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port Monmouth, NJ

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Showers have been a bit more widespread than expected this evening from the NYC metro into NE NJ, LoHud, and Southern CT.
Have updated the forecast to account for the latest radar trends. The showers will only bring light amounts where they occur. Additional showers are possible overnight, especially NW of the NYC metro. Otherwise, marine layer with abundant cloud coverage persists over most of the area. Some patchy fog is also possible tonight, with temps gradually falling to the lower 60s throughout.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
The high will weaken further on Tue, with the flow becoming SE in the afternoon. Additional shortwave energy approaches aloft.
With plenty of moisture still around this will allow for shower activity, especially north and west of NYC. Temp s should be a little milder than recent days, reaching the mid 70s in NE NJ and the lower 70s most elsewhere.

As the warm front begins to approach, chances for showers and possibly a tstm (via elevated instability) should continue Tue night. Fog also more likely as SE flow turns S ahead of the front. Low temps will be in the lower/mid 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Key points:

* Very warm and humid Thursday with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and night.

* Potential for high heat and humidity late in the weekend into early next week.

Global models are in good agreement and forecast largely followed NBM during this period.

Amplifying upper trough across the Midwest and Mid Mississippi Valley on Wednesday will send a warm front north of the area early in the day. However, the warm sector looks to be active with a chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, especially in the afternoon and evening. PW values will increase to around 2 inches, which is close to a daily max for KOKX upper air soundings. Thus, any convection will likely be efficient at producing heavy rainfall. However, storm motion will be about 30 kt with the boundary to the north. Thus, no training issues at this time and large scale lift is rather weak. Instability is marginal to moderate, highest across the interior. Any flooding issues will likely be of the minor nuisance variety.

Thursday gets quite a bit more interesting with the cold front moving into the area during the afternoon and evening hours.
Moderate to high instability and a strengthening vertical wind profile suggest the potential for strong to severe bowing line segments. SPC Day 4 and CSU-MLP have the area in greater than 15% for severe weather with the main threat being damaging winds. Limiting factors could be too much dry air in the low- levels, lowering MLCAPE values. However, it is a bit early to be too specific with details, but nevertheless something to keep a watch on. In addition, temperatures will be about 10 degrees above normal with dew points well into the 60s to around 70. NBM box and whisker plots show deterministic NBM at or below the 25th percentile. Thus, there is the potential for higher temps.
Deterministic NBM similar to long rage GFS and ECMWF MOS values.

Temperatures fall off some Friday into Saturday but still several degrees above normal. Also have to watch out for some ridge rollers Saturday night into Sunday as heights build and a warm front over the Great Lakes potentially trigger MCS development. What is more certain, heights build Sunday into Monday, as a high amplitude ridge takes takes control east of the Mississippi River Valley. This lines up with start of the summer and will easily be the warmest airmass of the season.
Heat indices will be on the rise Sunday into Monday, with 95 to 100 plus from NYC and points north and west. Guidance points to even warmer conditions on Tuesday. Thus, there is the potential for heat headlines. NBM box and whisker plots once again showing NBM deterministic values at or below the 25ht percentile.
Values closer to the 50th support ambient temperatures around 100 in some locations. Dew points at this time are forecast to be in the upper 60s to around 70.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure off the New England gradually weakens and shift east during Tuesday as a stationary front remains well to the south. The front will begin lifting north as a warm front late Tuesday night.

IFR to LIFR prevails through the overnight and into Tuesday morning, and possibly into the afternoon, as any gradual improvement to MVFR will likely be during Tuesday afternoon. The improvement will be brief, and conditions are expected to lower once again to IFR and LIFR Tuesday evening.

Scattered light showers continue across northeastern New Jersey, into the NYC metro, Lower Hudson Valley, and Southern CT, and will become more scattered to isolated, and possibly end through the overnight. The chances for additional showers increases Tuesday evening, mainly north and west of the NYC metro.

Winds will generally be E to NE 10kt or less through the overnight and into Tuesday morning. Winds then become ESE-SE late Tuesday morning into the afternoon, and remain under 10kt.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments expected for flight categories through Tuesday evening.

Timing of LIFR may be off by several hours overnight and could linger a few hours longer than indicated Tuesday morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Late Tuesday night: IFR-LIFR. Showers with an isolated thunderstorm possible.

Wednesday: Chance of IFR early, otherwise VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms late with MVFR.

Thursday: VFR. Showers and thunderstorms with MVFR possible in the afternoon and evening.

Friday and Saturday: VFR. Slight chance Friday and Saturday evening NW of NYC metro.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Seas and wind gusts in E flow are likely just shy of SCA criteria attm on the outermost coastal ocean waters W of Fire Island Inlet. With a downward trend expected tonight and minimal/occasional coverage of 5-ft seas at most, elected not to issue SCA.

Ocean seas E of Moriches Inlet may briefly reach SCA levels Thu evening as SW winds ahead of a cold front increase.

HYDROLOGY
Some downpours possible with heavier showers and possible tstms late Tue night, mainly well inland NW of NYC.

Locally heavy downpours are also possible with any thunderstorms Wednesday and again Thursday afternoon into the evening.
However, the risk of flooding will be mitigated by the speed of any cells and lack of overall cell training.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Rip current risk remains at moderate for today. The Tuesday forecast will be updated within the hour. Check for update shortly.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.