Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Keansburg, NJ

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Main area of low pressure off the coast of Maine within a broader low over the northeast. A weak trough is currently moving across the area along with some middle level vorticity energy. This will continue to produce some pockets of light rain or sprinkles into the early afternoon, mainly the western half of the area. Once the trough pushes north and east, some improvement is expected with cloud cover, especially closer to the coast mid to late afternoon.

Several areas of vorticity within the upper trough will continue rotating through this afternoon and evening, which may help generate some isolated to scattered showers. Soundings indicate some weak instability between 5-10kft. With a freezing levels around 5-6 kft, this instability may be enough to develop some low topped convection in the afternoon. Depth of instability is thin so any lightning would be isolated at worst, but there could be brief very small hail if convection were to develop.
The HRRR has been hinting that this low topped convection could develop where clouds start thinning out across NJ and then shift towards the NYC metro and Long Island this evening.

Showers should wane tonight as the BL cools, instability lessens, and the jet streak exits. Skies may even become mostly clear overnight. A W flow however should keep the low levels mixed sufficiently to prevent significant radiational cooling.
If any areas do decouple, lows could be 5-10 degrees colder in those spots than currently forecast.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
Instability recharges on Sat with a slight warming trend across the cwa. All areas progged to reach the 60s. Cold aloft with h85 blw 0C. With cyclonic flow aloft, feel the NAM is too dry, and the NBM pops which are basically dry across the cwa too low. As a result, went at least slight chance all areas during the day on Sat. Coverage isold-sct, with a few low topped tstms again possible. It will already be breezy with well mixed flow. Time heights show unidirectional winds thru h2. Some enhanced gusts possible with any convection with dcape around 200.

Any pcpn should again dissipate Sat ngt, and likely quickly.
Went with the NBM for temps which produces lows about 5 degrees blw normal.

A drier fcst for Sun, but again cannot rule out a few aftn shwrs. Did not stray from the NBM however at this stage, so most of the cwa except for the nwrn corner has a dry fcst. Enough sun and mixing expected to keep the warming trend going. Cool again at night with lows in the 40s to around 50. Wouldn't be surprised if the guidance trends a little lower based on the current idea of better radiational cooling.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Good model agreement in mean troughing to start the week as Canadian Maritimes closed upper low gradually opens up and slides out to sea, followed by weak ridging albeit interrupted by a northern stream shortwave rotating through the area on Wed. Model spread increases in terms of upper level flow for mid-late week, based on interaction of a northern plains cutoff upper low and northern stream jet over Canada.

At the surface, weak high pressure builds into the region Mon and Tue, with dry conditions and temps near seasonable. Potential for a southern low to approach the region for midweek, but latest medium range model trend has been for a slower approach for late week, but will ultimately be predicated on earlier mention interaction of a northern plains cutoff upper low and northern stream jet over Canada.
Temps will also depend on mid to late week low pressure, generally running near to slight above seasonable if the low remains suppressed, otherwise a few degrees below normal if the low pressure system ends up affecting the region.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Unusually strong late May coastal low pressure slowly tracks up the New England coast today, while another weak low over the eastern Great Lakes tracks east across New England, before both lift northeast tonight.

MVFR cigs improve to VFR from SW to NE this afternoon with the potential for isolated to scattered showers through this evening. VFR conditions expected tonight and into Saturday.

W winds increasing to 10-14kt gusting to 15-20kt this afternoon, particularly western terminals. Gusts subside this evening, but winds likely remain in the 7 to 10 kt range overnight then gusts picks up again Saturday around 20-25kt.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

VFR conds for eve push, outside of iso/sct shra. Very low and sparse potential for a tsra btwn 22 and 02z.

Occasional westerly gusts of 15 to 20 kt for this aft/eve push.

VFR with winds increasing to 10 to 15 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt for Sat Am push.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Saturday: VFR. W winds 15G20-25kt.

Sunday: MVFR. NW winds 10-15g20kt.

Monday: VFR. NW winds 10-15kt.

Tuesday & Wednesday: VFR. Low probability of MVFR in shra.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Have adjusted the start time to 8pm for the SCA on the ocean west of Fire Island Inlet as seas have been around 3 ft with winds well below 25 kt. The rest of the SCA remains in effect through tonight. Ocean seas should build close to 5 ft tonight.
Winds may be close to sca lvls all waters on Sat. On the ocean, seas will likely be around 5 ft, so the SCA may need to be extended through Saturday evening. Lighter winds and subsiding seas expected Sun. Generally sub SCA conditions Mon thru Wed with weak pressure regime.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected through the middle of next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Localized minor coastal flooding possible with this evening high tide cycle for southern portions of Nassau County and SW CT as water levels approach minor flood thresholds, but confidence is too low for a statement at this time.

Farther down the road, there is potential for localized minor coastal flooding Sun into early next week with approach of the new moon, causing areas to need as little as 1/4 ft of tidal departure for minor coastal flooding.

The OKX surf zone forecast season begins today with a high rip current risk for all the ocean beaches. Various contributing factors include a 4-ft/9-sec E swell and an opposing WSW 10-15 flow in the afternoon leading to chaotic conditions. Surf temps have cooled off to the lower/mid 50s, which should keep most people out of the water anyway.

The rip current risk for Saturday should be moderate as onshore seas gradually subside.

Outlook for the rest of the Memorial Day weekend: Rip risk likely reduces to low for Sunday, and a low risk for Memorial Day, as onshore swells continue to subside.

CLIMATE
The following are the daily record low temperatures for today, May 23rd:

NYC: 43/1963 JFK: 44/1963 LGA: 45/1963 EWR: 43/1931 BDR: 42/1963 ISP: 42/2006

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ355.