Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Keansburg borough, NJ

KEY MESSAGES
1) A strong cold front will move across the area Saturday morning, bringing cold temperatures, strong winds, and some light snow.

2) Temperatures moderate next week, noticeably so by Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
A quick moving low pressure system and associated cold front approaches tonight and moves across there region on Saturday. As the front approaches tonight precipitation will overspread the region, with snow becoming likely across the entire area towards midnight and continuing into early Saturday morning. Snowfall amounts are expected to remain light, with a widespread half to one and a half inches expected. The only exception will be across the far eastern portions of Long Island and Eastern CT, where amounts could be slightly higher, closer to 2-3 inches.
Some of the forecast models are showing the potential for some snow bands to develop mainly east of the region, however its possible that some of those bands could impact the far eastern portion of the area. This will continue to be monitored for the potential for some short fused winter weather advisories if snowfall amounts need to be increased for these areas.

The snow will taper off from west to east during the daytime on Saturday, and may not end until late in the day across the far eastern sections of the forecast area.

As the front moves across the region on Saturday, a tight pressure gradient develops over the area which will produce increasing northwest flow. The cold air advection will increase and the wind chill will become a significant factor. Stayed close to the current wind forecast which was closer to the MOS guidance with the NBM guidance being significantly too low with wind speeds and gusts.
Expect sustained winds speeds near 25 to 30 mph with gusts reaching near 45 to 50 mph for much of the region. As a result, A wind Advisory remain in effect from 9 AM Saturday until midnight Saturday night.

The combination of the strong gusty winds and cold temperatures will result in dangerously cold wind chills Saturday night. The coldest night of the weekend will be Saturday night as temperatures fall into the single digits area wide, with temperatures below 0 in some areas north of NYC. These cold temperatures with the winds will result in widespread wind chills between -15 to -20 degrees which will continue into early Sunday morning.

Another round of cold weather headlines may be needed Sunday night into Monday morning, however it wont be as cold as Saturday night. A lot of this will depends on how quickly winds diminish Sunday and Sunday night. For now looking at wind chill values from about 0 closer to the city to -10 to -15 in the usual colder spots in the CWA


KEY MESSAGE 2
The arctic air mass from the weekend will begin to moderate some beginning on Monday, and then lifts out completely during the day Tuesday. After temperatures recover some Monday afternoon with widespread 20s, temperatures will get to around freezing region wide by Tuesday afternoon. Despite temperatures warming, temperatures will continue to average below normal region wide throughout the week.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Low pressure and an associated Arctic cold front will approach tonight, and pass through Saturday morning.

VFR conditions before 00Z, then periods of light snow developing this evening with MVFR vsby at first, then lowering to IFR later this evening and overnight. VFR conditions are expected to return for the NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals following the cold frontal passage. A heavy snow shower or snow squall is possible with the Arctic cold front but confidence is too low at this time to include in TAFs. The eastern terminals will likely see periods of light snow to continue into early afternoon. Snow could briefly be moderate .

Light N-NE winds become variable or SSW this afternoon/evening.
Following the cold frontal passage Saturday morning, NW winds increase to 15-25kt with G30-40kt. A few higher gusts up to 50 kt possible. The eastern terminals will be slower to ramp up.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of snow and MVFR/IFR conditions will continue to be fined tuned.

Snow squalls are possible with the arctic cold front.

A few gusts up to 50 kt possible Saturday afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Saturday Afternoon/Night: VFR returns to the eastern terminals by late afternoon/early evening as snow comes to an end.

Total accumulations just shy of an inch for the NYC metros/KSWF, 1 inch KHPN/KBDR, 1-2 inches for KISP/KGON.
Potential for KGON to see higher amounts.

NW winds 20-30 kt with gusts 35-45 kt, highest into early evening.
Winds gradually diminish thereafter.

Sunday: VFR. NW winds 15-20 kt with gusts 20-30 kt, diminishing to 10-15 gusts around 15-20 kt at night.

Monday and Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower with a chance of snow inland and rain or snow at the coast.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Conditions remain below small craft advisory thresholds on all waters through tonight. The calm conditions rapidly change on Saturday as an Arctic front moves across the waters, with winds increasing to gale force.

The gales last through Saturday night and potentially into Sunday as well, especially on the ocean. Ocean seas build up to near 8-10 ft Saturday into Saturday night and even the Long Island Sound builds to near 6 ft for a significant portion of the Sound for this same timeframe.

In addition, with this increasing fetch and increasingly colder temperatures, more freezing spray is expected Saturday into Saturday night. Portions of the ocean and Long Island Sound are expected to develop moderate to heavy freezing spray. In collaboration with surrounding offices, decided to hoist a heavy freezing spray warning for the ocean and Long Island Sound for 1 PM Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. This may need to be extended into Sunday with subsequent forecasts.

Small craft conditions may linger out on the eastern ocean waters Monday into Monday evening, otherwise sub advisory conditions return. Sub advisory conditions should prevail through mid week.

CLIMATE
Record Low Maximum Temperatures for Sun Feb 8:

KEWR: 18/1985 KBDR: 18/1994 KNYC: 8/1895 KLGA: 21/1985 KJFK: 22/1967 KISP: 20/1985

Record Low Temperatures for Mon Feb 9:

KEWR: -14/1934 KBDR: 5/1963 KNYC: -15/1934 KLGA: 7/1979 KJFK: 8/1979 KISP: 5/1967

The record lows for Central Park and Newark above represent the all time record lows for those sites. Temperatures are not expected to fall to those levels.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Wind Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to midnight EST Saturday night for CTZ005>012.
Extreme Cold Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for CTZ005-006-009-010.
Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for CTZ007-008-011-012.
NY...Wind Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to midnight EST Saturday night for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
Extreme Cold Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ078-080-177-179.
Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ079-081.
Extreme Cold Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ067.
Extreme Cold Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ068>075-176-178.
NJ...Wind Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to midnight EST Saturday night for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
Extreme Cold Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for NJZ002.
Extreme Cold Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-350-353-355.