Thursday, June4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Long Beach, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 8:23PM Thursday June 4, 2020 10:09 PM EDT (02:09 UTC) Moonrise 7:16PMMoonset 4:36AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 836 Pm Edt Thu Jun 4 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday afternoon through Friday evening...
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers early this evening. Chance of tstms. Showers likely after midnight.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Sun..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Sun night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 836 Pm Edt Thu Jun 4 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front slowly approaches on Fri, passing on Sat. The front moves southeast of long island Saturday night. High pressure will then build in for the remainder of the weekend and into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Long Beach, NY
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location: 40.59, -73.66     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 050125 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 925 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. A convective complex tracks across Pennsylvania and impacts the area late tonight. A cold front will slowly approach from the west on Friday. A cold front moves across Saturday and southeast of the region Saturday night. High pressure will begin building into the region on Sunday and more so for early to mid next week. High pressure breaks down towards the end of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. Slight adjustments were made to temperatures, dewpoints, cloud coverage and POPs for showers. POPs go to likely overnight for showers but kept thunderstorms to chance along the southern coasts including NYC and Long Island but slight chance to the north. Models are showing negative Showalter Indices to the south and they become less negative farther north so there is forecast to be some elevated instability to work with.

The models have been pretty good with picking up the developing mcs over OH. This sys is progged to track ewd tngt and impact the area between about 4Z and 10Z. Although the models do provide some confidence, the mcs has a long way to go which could impact timing and placement. Strong cold pool development could result in a sewd trend in the sys. The NAM has additional initiation due to the increasing lljet over srn/cntrl NJ tngt which would cut off the inflow and significantly weaken the tstms impacting the cwa.

Further complicating the picture, there were shwrs developing across nern PA this aftn. These will get here much earlier than 3z if they hold together. While the NAM does have some hint of this activity, the HRRR has nothing on it right now. Because of these many uncertainties, pops based on the 12z HREF have been capped at high chance. Sct pops for shwrs were also manually added for the next few hours for wrn portions of the area.

SBCAPE is progged to be minimal, so if there is a svr risk it is most likely w of the Hudson before it becomes elevated attm.

The NBM was used for temps.

There is a high rip current risk through this evening at the ocean beaches from Smith Point NY to Montauk Point NY. This is due to 5 ft S-SE long period swells. There is a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches west of Smith Point NY through this evening where swells will be 3 to 4 ft.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Friday is another complicated fcst. Any mcs activity should be gone by 12Z. Higher humidity will be left in place, resulting in increasing instability with a weakening cap. With active zonal flow aloft, initiation will be possible at any time from late mrng on. This may help to limit svr chances by working over the atmosphere or keeping down the heat. It is notable that the MAV and MET are as much as 10 degrees cooler than the NBM across wrn areas. Although the fcst goes with the NBM attm due to expected breaks in the clouds during at least the first part of the day, temps in the MAV/MET range would limit tstm intensity.

Winds in the llvls are backed a bit per the 12Z NAM, so this may need to be watched for wrn areas, particularly if they back closer to sly as opposed to swly and CAPE is allowed to build. A lot of variables and a lot of uncertainty right now. Pops were 12Z HREF and capped at chance.

A prefrontal trof associated with the approaching cold front may pass Fri ngt, sweeping any convection out to sea overnight. Pops transition to the NBM Fri ngt, with the NBM used for temps.

There currently is a high rip current risk at the ocean beaches Friday due to 5 ft S-SE long period swells. However, there is a chance the swells are a bit less which would lead to a moderate rip current risk.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Strong shortwave moves across Saturday into Saturday night that will accompany a cold front passage at the surface. The forcing combined with increasing instability will allow for a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Moisture looks to be a limiting factor with several models showing a mainly dry passage. However, weighed the wetter model solutions of GFS more heavily considering the factors for lift that will be met.

The shortwave axis pushes through the region Saturday night and will be southeast of the region Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms taper off during the evening Saturday. On the backside of the trough though, a vort max will be moving across Sunday into Sunday night.

At the surface, the cold front will move southeast of the region Saturday night and farther offshore Sunday. A weak upper level disturbance may present some possible showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday night for interior and eastern areas.

Otherwise, steady height rises with strong upper level ridging moving in for early to mid next week with accompanying high pressure building in at the surface. A long stretch of dry weather is anticipated lasting into middle of next week. Ridge breaks down by next Wednesday night into Thursday which is when the next chance for rain showers will be as weak low pressure approaches.

With temperatures and humidity, warm and humid Saturday (forecast highs in upper 70s to mid 60s, forecast dewpoints well in the 60s), cooler and less humid Sunday and Monday ( forecast highs in the 70s, forecast dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s). Temperatures and humidity trend a littler higher for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week with forecast highs more in the upper 70s to low 80s range.

AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. A weak wave and warm front approach and lift through the area overnight.

MVFR with isolated IFR possible in showers and isolated thunderstorms. Shower activity should pass east by the morning push, but MVFR/IFR cigs likely for the morning push. Improvement to VFR likely late morning into early afternoon, with a likely return of MVFR/IFR late Friday into Friday evening. Additional shower and thunderstorm activity likely to move through the terminals Friday afternoon through the evening.

Light onshore flow tonight into morning push, giving way to S winds of 5-10 kt on Friday.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. Fri Night. Showers and thunderstorms possible with IFR. Sat. Becoming VFR am. W/SW gusts 15-20 kt, becoming NW gusts 20-25 kt in the evening. Chance of shower and thunderstorm in the evening. Sun. VFR. NW gusts 15-20 kt. Mon-Tue. VFR.

MARINE. Seas on the ocean will continue to subside tngt. 44025 is down to 4 ft, the the sca has been canceled for the cntrl ocean. Seas come back up on the ocean Fri however, so the sca on the ern ocean was extended, and an advy issued for the remaining ocean zones. Seas may remain at sca lvls Fri ngt.

Sub-SCA conditions are forecast this weekend through early next week across all waters.

HYDROLOGY. Minor hydrologic impacts cannot be ruled out on Fri where heavier tstms develop.

Other than some brief heavy downpours with any stronger showers and thunderstorms on Saturday with possible minor flooding, no other hydrologic problems anticipated during the long term.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Widespread minor coastal flooding is expected with tonight's high tide cycles as we approach a full moon, particularly the South Shore Bays and shorelines along Southern Westchester NY and Southern Fairfield CT. Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect for southern Queens/Nassau and coastal Fairfield and Westchester Counties. A statement remains in effect for locations along the NY Harbor and northwest Long Island along the Western Sound. The forecast surge tonight is around 0.5 ft for most locations.

While astronomical tides will still be running high Friday night with the full moon, forecast surge is a few tenths of a foot less, making the total water levels just touch or slightly exceed minor coastal flood benchmarks for the South Shore Bays and the Southern Fairfield CT shorelines with other locations falling short of minor coastal flood benchmarks.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

KOKX WSR-88D radar will be down until approximately June 15 for the pedestal refurbishment.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for CTZ009. NY . Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for NYZ071. High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM EDT Friday through Friday evening for NYZ075-080-178-179. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NYZ178- 179. High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for NYZ081. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ353- 355. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350.

SYNOPSIS . JM NEAR TERM . JM SHORT TERM . LONG TERM . JM AVIATION . NV MARINE . JM HYDROLOGY . JM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 15 mi29 min S 16 G 19 65°F 1012.1 hPa63°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 16 mi51 min SSW 12 G 14 71°F 1012.1 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 20 mi51 min 76°F 61°F1011.5 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 20 mi51 min SSW 11 G 12 74°F 69°F1012.2 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 21 mi39 min N 1.9 G 1.9 68°F 32°F64°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 22 mi51 min S 14 G 16 70°F 1011.1 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 26 mi84 min S 5.8 G 7.8 71°F 1 ft62°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 26 mi51 min 80°F 65°F1011.3 hPa
MHRN6 27 mi51 min S 11 G 15
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 35 mi29 min SSW 12 G 14 62°F 1012.9 hPa60°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 48 mi51 min SSW 5.1 G 8 71°F 62°F1011.8 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY8 mi18 minS 1610.00 miOvercast70°F63°F79%1012.5 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY16 mi16 minSW 810.00 miFair71°F62°F73%1012.6 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY18 mi18 minS 710.00 miOvercast75°F61°F62%1011.7 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY21 mi78 minno data10.00 miFair76°F63°F64%1011.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJFK

Wind History from JFK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3S4SW6SW5W4SW6NW3SW3SW3W3SW5SW6W6S9S11S9S10S12S15S12S13S15S18S16
1 day agoS5SW7S8SW7SW9SW8SW9SW8SW14SW10SW10S11S10S9SW6W18
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Tide / Current Tables for Long Beach, Long Island, New York
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Long Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:23 AM EDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:33 AM EDT     4.32 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:30 PM EDT     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:00 PM EDT     5.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.4-0.3-0.20.51.62.73.74.24.23.62.51.40.4-0.2-0.20.51.634.255.453.92.6

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:56 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:03 AM EDT     1.13 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:14 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:21 AM EDT     -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:30 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:28 PM EDT     1.09 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:30 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:44 PM EDT     -0.85 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.300.30.81.10.90.40.1-0.2-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.4-0.10.10.5110.50.1-0.1-0.5-0.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.