Saturday, November28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Long Beach, NY

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 4:30PM Saturday November 28, 2020 10:51 PM EST (03:51 UTC) Moonrise 4:42PMMoonset 6:04AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 935 Pm Est Sat Nov 28 2020
.gale watch in effect from Monday morning through late Monday night...
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..W winds around 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon..SE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 6 to 9 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely in the morning, then rain in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 9 to 13 ft, subsiding to 8 to 11 ft after midnight. Rain likely in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Chance of showers.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft, subsiding to 6 to 9 ft after midnight.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Wed night..W winds around 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Thu..W winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ300 935 Pm Est Sat Nov 28 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure slides south of the area through Sunday. Deepening low pressure brings unsettled weather Monday into Tuesday. The low lifts up into southeast canada on Wednesday with high pressure returning for the end of the week. Another strong low pressure may impact the area next Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Long Beach, NY
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location: 40.59, -73.66     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 290235 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 935 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure slides south of the area through Sunday. Deepening low pressure brings unsettled weather Monday into Tuesday. The low lifts up into southeast Canada on Wednesday with high pressure returning for the end of the week. Another strong low pressure may impact the area next Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/. The forecast is mostly on track with minor edits made to some of the hourly weather elements.

High pressure builds in from the southwest. A clear sky and relaxing wind will provide for a fairly decent radiational cooling night, especially in areas where the wind can become calm for any period of time. This will more likely occur away from the coastline.

Lows tonight will be generally in the 30s with lowest values to the north and northwest and warmest temperatures around the NYC metro where temps may not get out of the low 40s. Any spots where the wind can become calm can drop into the upper 20s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. High pressure slides to our south through the day providing for clear skies and dry conditions with light W to SE winds. High temperatures will be slightly above average by about 5 degrees, generally in the middle 50s.

By Sunday night, high pressure shifts offshore allowing for the winds to become more southerly. This will begin to advect moisture into the region overnight as skies become progressively cloudier ahead of an approaching low pressure. Some scattered showers may develop after Midnight and before 6 AM Monday ahead of the primary area of precipitation associated with the deepening low. Lows on Sunday night will be slightly above average, generally in the low to middle 40s with come areas to the north dropping into the upper 30s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. A deepening low pressure tracking from the Middle Atlantic into Upstate NY will bring impactful weather to the region Monday into Monday night. There is also growing potential that unsettled conditions continue across the region on Tuesday as a secondary low develops near or just west of the region.

The greatest impacts are likely to occur Monday into Monday evening. The models continue to come into better agreement, although there is still many variables that forecaster confidence remains low. Large scale forcing along with a subtropical moisture feed will bring overspread rain across the region from SW to NE Monday morning. The rain will become moderate to heavy Monday afternoon into early Monday evening. Overrunning rain ahead of the systems warm front is likely in the afternoon. As the triple point nears, the precipitation may become more convective. Have added slight chance of thunder as soundings are indicating enough elevated instability that a few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out. The middle level dry slot is then progged to quickly overspread from west to east, possibly starting as early as sundown across western zones, then spreading east during the remainder of the evening. This has been consistently shown on all model guidance, just the timing has fluctuated a bit. Even with a few hours timing difference, the most widespread rain should taper off from west to east in the evening, with the most significant coverage in the evening across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut. The deep moisture plume and large scale forcing shifts well offshore Monday night. Forecast rainfall amounts range from 1.5 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. Minor flooding is the main threat with this rainfall.

Strong, possibly damaging winds are still possible Monday afternoon and evening. However, forecast confidence in seeing winds exceeding high wind criteria is low at this time. A strong low level jet is still progged by the NAM with winds 65-75 kt between 925 mb and 850 mb. The core of these winds mainly moves over Long Island and southeast Connecticut. The GFS has also come into a bit better agreement with the LLJ. The strongest surface winds still look to occur over Long Island and southeast Connecticut. The latest thinking is for sustained winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts 45 to 55 mph over these areas Monday afternoon and early evening. Winds will be weaker across the northwest interior being further from the low level jet and warmest air. In the NYC metro, sustained winds 20-25 mph with gusts 30 to 40 mph are forecast. Any deeper convection may be able to bring some higher winds down to the surface, but it should be noted there is an inversion indicated in model soundings below the strongest low level winds. This inversion could prevent these higher winds from mixing down. A wind advisory will likely be needed for Long Island and southeast Connecticut in subsequent forecasts. The timing of the strongest winds looks to be about 19z to about 22z as the low level jet quickly shifts to our east. Winds Monday night into Tuesday morning look much lower except for the Forks and far southeast Connecticut where gusts up to 35 mph may be possible into early Tuesday morning due to a stronger pressure gradient.

The low is associated with a southern stream wave that lifts north ahead of a deepening northern stream shortwave that eventually becomes an anomalous longwave upper trough. The northern stream shortwave is now becoming better sampled by the RAOB network in North America. The trends in the models have slowed its timing a bit, with amplification occurring Monday night. Potent vorticity maxima are progged to round the base of the trough with height falls occurring over the area by Tuesday morning. A stronger jet streak develops across the southeast coast Tuesday morning, with the northeast in the region of stronger divergence aloft and in the left exit of the jet. A secondary low may develop near or over the area Tuesday morning and then eventually get captured by the longwave trough Tuesday night. Several members of the GEFS and the CMC now show this scenario, with the ECMWF beginning to trend this way. What this means in terms of sensible weather is still a bit uncertain due to the deepest moisture plume getting pushed east Monday night. The height falls and cold pocket aloft along with the secondary low should be enough to develop showers on Tuesday. The main uncertainty is with coverage and have held PoPs at chance for now. If the system can pull back some deeper moisture, then coverage of precipitation will be more widespread especially for eastern parts of the area. Breezy conditions will likely continue regardless, especially in the afternoon and evening Tuesday as the low lifts northward.

The system becomes vertically stacked Tuesday night into Wednesday and lifts into southeast Canada. Colder and breezy conditions are indicated for Wednesday as the region remains under cyclonic flow aloft. High pressure builds for the end of the week. However, the synoptic pattern remains highly anomalous and amplified. Models continue to show potential for another low pressure to develop across the southeast at the end of the week, possibly deepening rapidly as it lifts across the northeast next Saturday. Confidence is low at this time, but will continue to monitor model trends over the coming days.

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. High pressure remains in control.

VFR. NW winds around 10 kt bcmg lighter overnight and backing W by late. Winds back farther to SW Sunday afternoon, mainly under 10 kt.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

***HIGH IMPACT EVENT LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING***

Sunday night. VFR. Winds 5-10kts W/SW. Monday. MVFR to IFR in rain by afternoon, possibly heavy at times. SE-S winds 20-30kt G35-45kt by afternoon/evening, with LLWS up to 50kt and chance of thunder. Tuesday. MVFR cond with sct showers. S-SW winds G15-20kt inland and 20-25kt NYC metros/coast. Wednesday. VFR. W/SW winds G20kt. Thursday. VFR. W/WSW winds 5-10 kts.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Sub SCA conditions through Sunday as high pressure overhead allows for clear conditions and light W/SW winds.

A gale watch has been issued for all waters Monday through the first half of Monday night. Winds increase Monday morning and should reach gale force on all waters. There is a low chance of a storm force gust, mainly on the ocean waters. However, a low level inversion will likely prevent any of the significantly higher winds aloft from mixing down. Will not mention the storm force gust potential in the HWO at this time due to it being a very low probability. Seas on the ocean build Monday morning, becoming 10 to 14 ft by Monday night. Seas on central and eastern Long Island Sound could also build to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon and evening. Winds will weaken from west to east Monday night, and could even fall below SCA levels briefly. SCA winds then return on Tuesday on all waters and may remain on the ocean on Wednesday and Thursday. Ocean seas will remain high Tuesday into Wednesday, subsiding close to 5 ft on Thursday.

HYDROLOGY. 1.5 to 2 inches of rainfall is forecast Monday into Monday night. Locally higher amounts cannot be ruled out. The heaviest rain is likely to occur Monday afternoon and early evening. This rain may produce minor urban flooding where the heaviest rain occurs.

Showers are possible on Tuesday with no hydrologic impacts expected at this time.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Minor to locally moderate beach erosion along with overwash appears likely along the oceanfront Monday afternoon through Tuesday.

Tide levels on Monday will respond quickly to strong onshore flow and freshwater input due to heavy rain. Fortunately, the highest surge is still forecast to occur either mid cycle or during the lower of the two daily high tides (evening high tide). Isolated minor coastal flooding impacts are expected with the high tides Monday evening along south facing coastlines of NY Harbor, the south shore of western Long Island, and western Long Island Sound.

Continued onshore flow into Tuesday could present a more widespread minor flood threat with the Tuesday morning high tide cycle due to tidal piling.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Gale Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night for ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . DS/MW NEAR TERM . JC/MW SHORT TERM . MW LONG TERM . DS AVIATION . JC MARINE . DS/MW HYDROLOGY . DS/MW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 15 mi32 min NW 16 G 19 55°F1018.7 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 16 mi52 min N 11 G 14 46°F 1019.6 hPa (+1.3)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 20 mi52 min 46°F 1019.3 hPa (+1.5)
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 20 mi52 min NNW 14 G 16 47°F 1019.7 hPa (+1.4)
44022 - Execution Rocks 21 mi37 min WNW 7.8 G 9.7 46°F 35°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 22 mi52 min NW 12 G 18 47°F 1019 hPa (+1.4)
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 26 mi52 min 47°F 1018.8 hPa (+1.4)
MHRN6 27 mi52 min NW 5.1 G 8
44069 31 mi52 min NW 7.8 G 9.7 46°F 36°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 35 mi32 min NNW 16 G 19 57°F1018.1 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 48 mi52 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 42°F 1018.1 hPa (+1.7)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY8 mi61 minNW 1110.00 miFair45°F33°F63%1019 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY16 mi59 minWNW 310.00 miFair43°F32°F65%1018.6 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY18 mi61 minNW 810.00 miFair48°F32°F54%1018.8 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY21 mi61 minWNW 610.00 miFair45°F30°F56%1018.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJFK

Wind History from JFK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6NW7NW5N3N3CalmW3SW4CalmCalmSW4SW6SW10W9W9W12NW15NW12N13N7NW14NW9NW13NW11
1 day agoW6SW6SW7W5W4SW4SW4CalmSW5W5W3SW5S6SW6SW9SW11SW9S7SW6W7W10W9NW6NW8
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Tide / Current Tables for Long Beach, Long Island, New York
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Long Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:01 AM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:04 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:35 AM EST     4.28 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:44 PM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:42 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:56 PM EST     3.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.31.1233.74.24.23.72.81.80.90.30.10.51.32.22.93.53.73.42.61.60.8

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:27 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:57 AM EST     0.90 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:04 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:10 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:15 AM EST     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 01:28 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:42 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:21 PM EST     0.97 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:40 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:40 PM EST     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.10.20.60.90.60.20-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.6-0.3-0.10.10.50.90.90.40.1-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.