Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Atlantic Beach, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Periods of showers will continue through early this morning, especially close to the coast. Isolated-scattered shower/storm possible PM, mainly NW of NYC metro.

2) There is a high rip current risk at ocean beaches through this evening.

3) Mainly dry Tuesday into Wednesday with the next chance of showers on Thursday, potentially continuing into the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
A weak wave of low pressure along a warm front just to the south will continue to bring periods of showers, mainly to the coast this morning. Have adjusted forecast rain amounts down and lowered precip probabilities. This is due to recent radar trends as well the last several runs of the HRRR and the new 06z NAM3km. Have also removed mention of thunder across Long Island.
Instability has remained minimal. While it may start increasing this morning, any lightning strikes should remain offshore if a thunderstorm were to develop. An isolated downpour cannot be ruled out near the coast, but otherwise the showers will be light to moderate.

The wave of low pressure begins to shift east this afternoon with the warm front remaining nearby. A trailing weak cold front/surface trough swings moves in from the NW this afternoon.
There should be enough lingering moisture and increased instability to support isolated-scattered showers and thunderstorms north and west of the NYC metro. Some of this activity could spill SE this evening, but dissipate shortly after sunset with loss of daytime heating. Mainly dry conditions should prevail east of the NYC metro this afternoon and evening.


KEY MESSAGE 2
High rip current risk for ocean beaches through this evening due to 3-5 ft waves and a S-SE swell. However, the risk may lower to moderate for Nassau and NYC beaches this afternoon as seas begin subsiding.

For Tuesday, the rip current risk is moderate although it could end up becoming low as S-SE swells subside and winds remain light.


KEY MESSAGE 3
High pressure will build over the area Monday night through the middle of the week. It should remain dry with seasonably warm temperatures for both Tuesday and Wednesday. The only exception is a low probability for a passing shower Tuesday afternoon across New London County Connecticut. Some weak lift and residual moisture may support an few brief showers Tuesday afternoon.

A broad upper trough will push towards the northeast Wednesday night into Thursday. Low pressure over southeast Canada will drag a cold front across the area on Thursday. The front will be entering the area late Wednesday night, but forcing is weak and moisture is limited. There is a signal in the last few runs of the modeling for a jet streak to pass to our north on Thursday with some shortwave energy rounding the base of the upper trough to our west. This could be enough to develop showers and possibly a thunderstorm on Thursday as the front slowly moves through the area. The NBM has maintained chance PoPs on Thursday and this seems reasonable as there is still a decent amount of ensemble spread. There is a plausible scenario where any showers on Thursday remain isolated as dynamics aloft remain weak.

The front is likely to stall to the south on Friday and may remain there into at least the first half of the upcoming weekend. Some of the uncertainty with shortwave energy on Thursday may persist Friday into the weekend as the the upper trough lingers over the east. A few waves of low pressure may develop on the front to the south in response to the troughing.
Chances for showers, possibly a thunderstorm, exist late Friday into the weekend. Friday through the weekend will not be a complete washout, but there may be a period where showers are more likely than others. This will become better resolved over the next few days.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A frontal system impacts the area terminals today.

Initially, IFR/MVFR conditions along with light rain or drizzle at most if not all the terminals. The light rain and drizzle should gradually taper off across NYC and points west this morning with the IFR/MVFR conditions continuing through at least 17-19z. For the NYC terminals and points west, an improvement back to VFR is expected during the early afternoon (17-19z or so), however further east, conditions improve to VFR late in the TAF period or remain MVFR through the remainder of the TAF period. Showers and/or drizzle may remain over the eastern terminals for much of the day.

A second round of showers will be possible this afternoon, with a low chance of an isolated thunderstorm. Best chances will be at KSWF, with lower confidence of occurrence closer to NYC.
Because of this, will only mention TSRA at KSWF with a PROB30 and leave out of the TAF at the NYC terminals.

Another chance of IFR/MVFR cigs will be possible tonight, with the better chances remaining east of NYC.

Winds start off from the south but will become light and variable as low pressure passes nearby. Once the low moves east, winds will become more westerly and northerly. Winds become light and variable once again tonight.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low confidence wind direction forecast today.

Timing of categorical changes could be a few hours off from TAF.

Timing of showers could be a few hours off from TAF.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm at night with MVFR possible.

Thursday: MVFR or lower at times. Chances of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday: Mainly VFR. A slight chance of showers with MVFR possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
SCA winds and seas will continue on the ocean waters into this afternoon. Winds will weaken through the morning, but lingering 5-6 ft seas are anticipated, especially east of Fire Island Inlet into the afternoon. Conditions will then remain below SCA levels this evening through Friday as a relatively weak pressure gradient remains in place.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350- 353.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ355.