Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Atlantic Beach, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Forecast remains on track into the afternoon with only minor adjustments to account for observations. High pressure continues to hold through the early afternoon, especially further east.
Low levels continues to indicate drier air winning out through the next several hours. Showers have tried to make their way into the western portion of the area but despite seemingly decent radar returns, much of this rain is falling out of a mid- level deck and has struggled to reach the ground. Only a few stations have reported light showers / sprinkles.

High pressure remains to the east of the area this afternoon with a broad low pressure system approaching from the southwest through the day. This low will slowly move over the area through the middle of the week.

Clouds are continuing to gradually build into the area from the southwest along with a broken shield of light rain showers.
These rain showers should gradually approach NE NJ and the NYC, but models have largely backed off on the intensity and eastward progression as the rain pushes into the high pressure positioned off to the east. As a result, much of the CWA is expected to be dry for much of the day, perhaps with the exception of NE NJ and the NYC metro. High temperatures today will be in the upper 60s to the middle 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The low continues to make its slow progression into the area tonight with additional showers moving in from the southwest. As the BL saturates and the high pressure to the east gives way a bit, showers should be able to make some eastward movement by tonight with much of the area seeing at least some light rain, though it may not be until after midnight or toward daybreak for central and eastern areas.

By Wednesday, the southeasterly flow increases as the low comes closer to the area. As the upper trough works its way overhead, the development of some subtle elevated instability may allow for the development of more convective-type showers and some embedded thunderstorms. This may allow for briefly moderate to heavier rain, though it's expected to be embedded in a more widespread light rain. Highs Wednesday will be in the middle 60s, given the ongoing precipitation.

On and off showers with perhaps some thunderstorms continue Wednesday night and into early Thursday as the low continues to move overhead. By Thursday, much of the precipitation should move northeast of the area but with the upper trough overhead, additional scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms will be possible through the afternoon. The area should begin to dry out a bit by Thursday night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A warm front associated with a cutoff low over the western Great Lakes region lifts north Friday into Friday night with with ridging aloft mitigating shower chances. A cold front follows for Saturday into Saturday night with additional showers and maybe a thunderstorm.

Uncertainty then increases for Sunday and Monday, stemming from global model disagreement on the placement of the cut off/upper low.
There's general agreement that it remains to our north, but still cannot rule out a diurnally-driven shower both days as a surface trough and cyclonic flow aloft are potentially in the area.

Above normal temperatures are expected for Friday and especially Saturday with the area warm sectored. Temperatures will be in the 70s to around 80 away from the coast, with low to middle 70s along the coast. After Saturday, the area will be in a cooling trend, with slightly cooler readings for Sunday compared to Saturday, and temperatures close to normal for Monday.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A weak frontal boundary remains nearly stationary into tonight near the NYC metro terminals. Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure approaches from the south.

VFR to start, rain showers continue to overspread the area especially across the NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals this afternoon into start of this evening with MVFR chances also increasing, though MVFR conditions are possible with any showers in the afternoon. Conditions deteriorate to IFR tonight for these areas. To the east, expecting mainly dry conditions and VFR conditions to prevail through much of this afternoon, with MVFR or lower expected this evening. IFR or lower is then expected around or after midnight and continue into much if not all of Wednesday.

Winds through the TAF period are around 10 kts or less through tonight, then 10-15kt on Wednesday. Wind direction will generally be from the E to ESE.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

MVFR and IFR timing could be a few hours off from TAF.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Wednesday and Wednesday night: Low stratus/fog with IFR conditions at times. Periods of rain. Slight chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. E-SE winds G20kt possible on Wednesday afternoon into early evening.

Thursday: MVFR possible with a chance of showers.

Friday and Saturday: Mainly VFR, chance of MVFR and showers.
Slight chance of thunderstorms afternoon into early evening.

Sunday...Mainly VFR. Chance of an MVFR shower.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters through tonight.
Onshore flow will help build seas to 5-6 ft on the ocean waters during Wednesday along with gusts around 25 kt. Winds weaken Wednesday night, however a residual swell should keep seas at advisory levels through the night and into a portion of Thursday. Sub-advisory conditions then follow for Thursday night through Sunday with winds remaining at around 10kt or less.

HYDROLOGY
Rainfall through Wednesday night is expected to average around a half of an inch across the area, but locally upwards of an inch is possible. No hydrologic impacts are expected with this event, and no impacts are expected thereafter through Monday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.