Monday, July6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Atlantic Beach, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:29AMSunset 8:30PM Monday July 6, 2020 6:39 PM EDT (22:39 UTC) Moonrise 10:00PMMoonset 6:43AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 314 Pm Edt Mon Jul 6 2020
Tonight..SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms this evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this evening.
Tue..SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers. Chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..SE winds around 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 314 Pm Edt Mon Jul 6 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A back door cold front moves across from the east tonight. This front will lift back into the waters on Tuesday, and pass north by Wednesday morning. Weak high pressure will then briefly build in through Thursday. Low pressure will then approach from the south on Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atlantic Beach, NY
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location: 40.59, -73.73     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 061943 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 343 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

SYNOPSIS. A back door cold front passes from the northeast this evening. The front will return northward as a warm front on Tuesday, and pass north by Wednesday morning. Weak high pressure will then briefly build in through Thursday. Low pressure will then approach from the south Friday into Saturday, followed by a series of weak fronts moving through the area late this weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. Tstms will continue to develop over the region over the next few hours. The greatest risk for svr is across NJ (where there is a watch) then into NYC, wrn LI and the Lower Hudson Valley. CIN is gone is most of these areas, and wrn portions of NJ zones have CAPE abv 2000. Some approaching weak upr lvl support as well as sfc boundaries across the region should help both organization and initiation. There is a flood threat with slow moving storms, especially across NJ zones.

Instability weakens by late this eve due to the cooling from tstms as well as the passage of the back door front. There could be some residual shwrs, particular invof the front which will not make very far from the wrn portion of the CWA. The NBM was used for overnight lows.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. The front returns nwd on Tue as a warm front. Considerable cloudiness is possible due to convective debris and the return of the front. Some shwrs are possible, especially wrn areas where there is the best convergence and some increasing instability. Embedded tstms chances across these wrn areas in the the aftn and eve. Shwrs and possible tstms Tue night. Although sfc based CAPE is low, some elevated activity ahead of the warm front possible which is why chances for tstms were included across nrn zones.

High temps were a blend between the CONSALL and NBM. Tricky fcst due to the cloud cover and chances for rain. Breaks could result in a quick warmup late in the day across swrn zones. The blended fcst is between the cooler NAM and the warmer MAV. Tue ngt temps were the NBM.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The region will lie on the northern edge of broad CONUS ridging through the week. This will be a dirty ridge though, with a weak closed low over the Mississippi River Valley early in the week slowly shearing/lifting toward the area to end the week. Thereafter, models with better agreement of amplifying northern stream troughing approaching/entering the area this weekend, and likely remaining over the area through at least early next week. Before then, a midweek northern stream shortwave moving through S Canada may buckle the ridge enough to provide a trigger for afternoon diurnal convection, particularly Wed.

The warm front is expected to be north of the area by early Wednesday morning, with some indication of an earlier mentioned very weak shortwave/buckling of trough moving through aloft. This may present a trigger for late afternoon/early eve isolated to scattered convection Wed, although the focus is a bit more vague at this point and (higher terrain, perhaps sea breeze boundary). This warm frontal passage and SW flow will have widespread high temps climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s, with widespread heat indices in mid to upper 90s degrees as dewpoints climb into the lower 70s.

Heights continue to build on Thursday, but progress of the earlier mentioned shearing southern closed low will have to be monitored as it potentially starts lifting towards the Mid-Atlantic. Quite a bit of model spread on the evolution of this feature and its associated surface wave/low. At this time this feature appears to be far enough SW/S of the region on Thursday, for another hot and humid day. Although a backing wind flow may keep coastal areas a bit cooler than Wed. Only a conditional potential for some isolated convection off terrain and seabreeze boundaries in a likely unstable, but capped and weakly shear environment. If flow remains from the S/SW widespread temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s likely for Thursday with heat indices of 95-100 possible.

Forecast details become less certain Friday into the weekend, dependent on the evolution of the southern low as it lifts/shears up the coast, but confidence is increasing in a northern stream trough amplifying down through the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and then to the East Coast during this time.

Considerable model spread exists on the southern low tracking up the coast as early as Friday or as late as Saturday Night, as well as whether it track up the coastal plain or offshore, as well as degree of intensification, and whether it acquires any tropical characteristics. NHC is monitoring the southern system for potential tropical or subtropical development this week, giving it a 30% chance over the next 5 days as it potentially emerges off the Carolina coast. Main threat with this low at this point would be a swath of heavy rainfall along its path as it taps into Gulf and subtropical Atlantic moisture, but low confidence on any details.

Better agreement that mean troughing will be sliding towards the east coast through the weekend, with a series of surface troughs moving through the area. Depending on timing of the southern wave, very warm and humid conditions are likely for the weekend, with threat of afternoon convection both days. Each successive trough Sunday into early next week, appears to bring in slightly cooler and drier airmass, but low predictability at this point.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. A weak cold front slowly drops south, passing through the terminals today. The boundary then returns Tuesday as a warm front.

Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon could result in brief MVFR or lower conditions, primarily from the NYC metro terminals west. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected into this evening before MVFR conditions develop at all terminals overnight. The start time of MVFR conditions tonight could be off by 1-2 hours. MVFR conditions are then expected to continue into Tuesday morning before gradually improving to VFR by late morning/early afternoon.

SE to ESE winds will continue this afternoon at around 10 kt, with a period of sustained winds 10-15 kt possible late this afternoon, primarily at coastal terminals. Winds then gradually diminish this evening before falling to around 5 kt overnight. ESE winds will then increase to 5-10 kt Tuesday morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. Tuesday afternoon-Thursday. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly from the NYC metros north/west. Friday-Saturday. MVFR or lower conditions possible in rain. Chance Chance E-SE gusts 20-25kt.

MARINE. Sub-SCA conditions expected through mid week though waves over the ocean remain between 3-4 feet. SCA seas are likely Friday into the weekend with a persistent S/SW flow and strengthening wind fields owing to a possible coastal low nearing the region.

HYDROLOGY. There is a localized flash flood threat this aftn and eve, mainly from wrn LI to the lower Hudson Valley and points w. Any strong tstms that develop could be slow moving and produce areas of flooding.

A localized urban and poor drainage flooding threat exists with any isolated thunderstorm activity Wed and Thu, as it will be slow moving and able to tap into a very moist environment.

There is potential for more widespread downpour/thunderstorm activity and resultant urban and poor drainage flooding threat during the Friday/Saturday period, but low confidence on details at this timeframe. More details as the week progresses.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The combination of a SE swell and high astronomical tides (full moon) will have water levels approach minor flood thresholds once again tonight, but they are expected to remain just below minor flood benchmarks.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 15 mi51 min SSW 8.9 G 12 73°F 1018.7 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 15 mi39 min NNW 5.8 G 7.8 1017.8 hPa (+2.1)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 17 mi51 min 74°F 74°F1017.6 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 17 mi51 min W 1.9 G 5.1 75°F 77°F1018.9 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 18 mi51 min S 8 G 8.9 74°F 1017.6 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 20 mi54 min S 7.8 G 9.7 71°F 71°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 22 mi51 min 73°F 76°F1017.8 hPa
MHRN6 23 mi51 min E 8.9 G 9.9
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 27 mi54 min SSE 12 G 25 71°F 1 ft70°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 38 mi39 min NNW 3.9 G 7.8 71°F 1018.6 hPa65°F

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY6 mi48 minSSW 310.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain72°F64°F79%1018.6 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY15 mi48 minSSE 1110.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain77°F66°F71%1017.4 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY18 mi48 minVar 32.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist70°F68°F93%1017.6 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY20 mi46 minSE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F68°F77%1019.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJFK

Wind History from JFK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8SE5SE4E3SE4E3SW4W8CalmCalmSW7NE4CalmSW5CalmE5S8S7S9SE9SE13SE18W16S3
1 day agoS9S9S9S8S6S7SW8S7S7SW9S9S5SW8SW12SW12SW10SW7S7S7S10S12S9S11S11
2 days agoE15E10E5E7E6E10SE7E5NE7NE8NE8NE7NE7NE9NE10N8N9N11NE9NE7S12S9S8S8

Tide / Current Tables for East Rockaway Inlet, Long Island, New York
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East Rockaway Inlet
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Mon -- 03:23 AM EDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:24 AM EDT     4.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:25 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:40 PM EDT     5.14 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.61.40.3-0.3-0.20.51.62.83.74.24.13.52.51.60.70.20.212.13.34.455.14.5

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:04 AM EDT     -0.77 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:17 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:09 AM EDT     1.04 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:23 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:28 PM EDT     -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:45 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:34 PM EDT     1.02 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:48 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.8-0.6-0.3-0.10.20.710.80.40.1-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.10.10.40.910.60.2-0

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.