Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Carteret, NJ

KEY MESSAGES
1) The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend.

2) An area of low pressure develops off the East Coast this weekend and meanders offshore through much of next week. Coastal impacts are possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
The coldest air mass since late April settles in to start the weekend.

Behind the fropa that moved through early this morning, sprawling surface high pressure builds east from the Plains and ushers in a much cooler, drier regime. Before this though, a shield of light rain continues in some areas to start the day, mainly from NYC on east across Long Island and S CT. Additional QPF is light, well under a quarter inch. Any rain tapers by mid to late morning as the rain shifts south and east, and cloud cover gradually erodes through late day as much drier air advects in with the N/NW flow.

The tightened pressure gradient as the high builds will also lead to blustery NW winds today. H850 temps plummet from the the mid teens yesterday to around -3C later today as the cold pool moves overhead. Temperatures this afternoon struggle to get into the lower 50s along the coast, and upper 40s inland, with the gusty winds, 20-30 mph, adding to the chill.

Actual air temps then fall into the 30s tonight across much of the area, with lower 40s in the urban NYC metro. The coldest locales of S CT and the LoHud Valley fall to near or just below the freezing mark and the Freeze Watch was upgraded to Warning for these interior zones. The one limiting factor will be north winds which likely stay up enough to keep coastal locations from getting to freezing. Drier air should help mitigate widespread frost formation. Should winds drop off more than currently forecast, freezing temperatures could expand further south.

Today will be the cooler day of the weekend, with a slow rebound in temperatures then expected through early next week. Despite abundant sunshine and clear skies on Sunday with the surface high overhead, temperatures remain in the 50s in the afternoon, or about 10 degrees below climo for mid October. The air mass continues to moderate Monday, with 60s returning for all by Tuesday.


KEY MESSAGE 2
Into early next week, guidance indicates the mid level trough swinging east cuts off at the base, with surface low pressure spinning up off Cape Hatteras. Cut off from any meaningful steering flow, the low then appears likely to meander offshore through much of the upcoming week.

Global dynamical and AI driven guidance continues to exhibit considerable spread in the evolution and track of the low, with varying degrees of impacts locally. For now, the consensus keeps the system's center far enough to the south and east to limit its effects to just a prolonged period of NE winds that could result in minor coastal impacts. This is a low confidence forecast at this point however, particularly moving into mid next week and beyond, and this feature will need to be monitored.

AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure gradually builds towards the terminals through tonight.

Mainly VFR through the TAF period. Lingering light rain should begin tapering off from NW to SE through 12z.

NW winds and gusts will continue gradually increasing early this morning, becoming 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt through much of the day. Winds will become more N this evening as gusts start weakening. N winds 10 kt or less are expected late tonight, and some outlying terminals may become light and variable early Sunday morning.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Peak gusts could be a few kt higher at times this morning/early this afternoon.

End time of gusts this evening may be off by 1-3 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Sunday-Monday: VFR.

Monday Night-Tuesday: VFR. N-NE wind gusts 15-25 kt, strongest near the coast.

Wednesday: VFR. NE wind gusts 20-30 kt, strongest near the coast.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Small Craft Advisory is in effect on all coastal nearshore waters until 6pm this evening. Gusty NW flow 25-30 kt expected through this time, with ocean seas around 5 ft. Winds lighten this evening and seas also lower for a brief period tonight through Sunday. Gale Watch that as in effect for outer ocean waters tonight into Sunday AM has been cancelled as winds now look to remain lower in this period.

A prolonged period of unsettled conditions, particularly on the ocean waters, is then expected through much of the week as an area of low pressure meanders off the East Coast. Ocean seas above 10 ft develop Monday and potentially continue through at least Friday. A persistent NE flow is also in place, with gales possible on the ocean beginning Monday evening. SCA conditions likely spread to non ocean waters into midweek with the increased NE winds.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for CTZ005>008.
NY...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ067-068.
NJ...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.