Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Carteret, NJ

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
Low pressure off the Delmarva will meander near the coast into early this evening, then begin to track slowly eastward. The low continues to produce gusty northeast winds. There are no wind headlines as frequent gusts and sustained winds remain below advisory levels. Winds will be gradually diminishing beginning early this evening. Rainfall will be relatively light, with occasional moderate rain as bands of rain rotate across the region. The low was also still producing coastal flooding: see the TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section for details.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
During Tuesday morning the upper energy with the southern low will allow for the southern low to then become the primary low and the low will track eastward through the day while becoming a broad low. There will be chances of light precipitation through the day, tapering later in the day and into the evening as the upper low moves east. Meanwhile the northern branch will also be active with an upper trough moving into eastern Canada during Tuesday and Tuesday night, then remaining into Wednesday.
An associated low will drag a cold front through the region during Wednesday, and with no moisture the front comes through dry.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Key Messages:

* Dry conditions will prevail through Sunday. It will remain breezy through Friday due to the pressure gradient between high pressure to the west and low pressure meandering out over the open Atlantic.

* Below normal temperatures will prevail through Friday with highs only in the upper 50s/lower 60s. Nighttime temperatures could fall into the 30s inland and 40s elsewhere.

* Milder weather returns this weekend as a warm front passes to the north and the high builds over and east of the area this weekend. Temperatures should reach the lower 70s by Sunday.

* A cold front will bring showers Sunday night into Monday.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A coastal storm continues to impact the terminals through tonight. The low pushes away from the area tomorrow.

Cigs continue to be right around 1kft resulting in IFR/MVFR conditions this evening. Cigs are expected to lower a bit with IFR tonight. Rain becomes more showery in nature tonight with clearing expected Tuesday morning, though there may be a few isolated showers around into early afternoon. MVFR should prevail by mid-morning and hold much of the day. Categories improve to VFR tomorrow evening with a rising ceiling.

NNE wind gusts will range from 25-35 kt into early evening, especially at NYC terminals, Long Island, and coastal Connecticut terminals. Strongest gusts expected KISP and KGON.
Winds begin decreasing tonight with peak gusts 20-25 kt at coastal terminals toward daybreak Tuesday. North winds then hold steady through the day tomorrow with a gradually diminishing wind into the evening. Gusts are expected to end by Tuesday evening around 23Z-1Z.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for ceilings and visibilities. Wind gusts could end up slightly lower than forecast.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Wednesday and Thursday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt.

Friday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt.

Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Replaced the gale warning with SCA for NY Harbor until 2 AM and for the western Sound until 8 AM as winds diminish, though there could still be an occasional gusts up to 35 kt early this evening. With stronger winds continuing elsewhere the Gale Warning remains in effect for all other waters until at least 2 AM, for all the ocean waters through at least 8 AM, and for the ocean E of Fire Island Inlet until 12 PM Tue.

Once the gale conditions end SCA gusts will remain on most of the non ocean waters through Tue, and possibly into Tue evening.
Then with low pressure passing east on Wed gusts increase to small craft levels once again. On the ocean waters SCA conditions continue through Wednesday.

SCA cond expected on all waters except NY Harbor from Wed night into Thu night, with N-NW winds gusting to 25-30 kt (highest on the ocean) and ocean seas 5-8 ft. Minimal SCA cond Fri morning on the ocean (seas 4-6 ft and gusts still up to 25 kt) should continue into Fri morning, with a chance that 5-ft seas could could linger into the afternoon.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Water levels continue to recede. Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for SW Suffolk, where tidal piling on the western Great South Bay should result in brief minor flooding with the high tide late tonight, then more widespread minor and locally moderate flooding with the high tide late Tue afternoon.

Water levels could also briefly touch minor flood thresholds in spots late Tue afternoon in S Nassau, also along tidal waterways of NE NJ and Staten Island. High surf up to 7 ft could still produce minor beach erosion on the oceanfront into Tue morning. Statements issued for these hazards.

As winds and seas both subside, tidal piling will diminish, ending the coastal flood threat thereafter for most places.
Couldn't rule out some brief/spotty flooding on the Great South Bay with the late day Wed high tide cycle.

Forecast is from bias-corrected 12Z PETSS ensemble 50% exceedance based on its performance during the last high tide cycle.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ080.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-332-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for ANZ335.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ338.
Gale Warning until noon EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353.
Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ355.