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FXUS63 KGID 040917 AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Hastings NE 317 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

DISCUSSION
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Key Messages:

* Above to well-above temperatures likely (>80% chance) through the upcoming work week.

* Near critical fire weather is possible (30-50% chance) for portions of north central Kansas this afternoon, then perhaps extreme western portions of the forecast area Thursday afternoon

* Outside of some sprinkles today, dry conditions are forecast until the next trough and cool down (though only to near-normal levels) arrives late Friday and into the weekend.

Forecast Details: The day is off to a quiet and seasonably cold start as the potent shortwave trough that affected the area yesterday continues to move E/SE through the Lower MO Valley. The wave is nearing the base of a broad upper trough axis that extends from the Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley...which leaves the Central Plains in fast NW upper flow. Latest WV imagery clearly shows another shortwave trough moving SE out of Canada into E MT, and this will be the main weather feature of note for the local forecast today.

The core of the upper vort lobe will take a more N/NE track compared to the last couple over the weekend, which should keep the best chcs for accumulating pcpn out of the area. Nonetheless, extensive area of cooling cloud tops over N WY, S of the main vort lobe, suggests there will still be a considerable amount of mid to upper level moisture and forcing for this wave to work with.
Forecast soundings generally bear this out...with at least a narrow corridor of saturation above 8K ft and strong omega - likely driven by ascent associated with left exit region of 125+ kt upper jet streak and strong mid level warm air advection.
Forecast soundings also show fairly dry air in lowest 5K ft, and what lift there is is pretty brief, so feel a band of sprinkles and/or very lgt rain and mostly trace amounts is most probable.
Expect another breezy day today with aftn gusts of 25-30 MPH (locally 35 MPH in the Ord, NE area)...and the combination of Wrly, downslope component and warmer sfc temps in the lower 60s could yield at least a few hrs of near critical fire weather 18-21Z, mainly over Rooks and Osborne Counties. Highs elsewhere should range from upper 40s near Columbus to mid to upper 50s.

Brief bout of cold air advection will lead to more 40s to near 50F for Tuesday, though it'll still be a decent day by early Dec.
standards given fairly lgt wind and partly cloudy skies. Upper ridge will amplify over the W CONUS on Tue, then shift E onto the Plains for Wed. This will advect unseasonably warm air out of the Desert SW and into the region through Thu, as evident by H85 temp anomalies climbing to above +2 standard deviations. Wed looks absolutely fantastic given plentiful sunshine, relatively lgt winds, and highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Thu is still the overall warmest day of the week (thanks to mild start in the low to mid 30s), with highs areawide in the 60s. Tend to prefer NBM 75th percentile guidance on obvious very warm days, and this suggests even some low 70s will be possible from around Arapahoe to Stockton. Only potential fly in the ointment for Thu is that the aftn hrs could turn a bit breezy for at least the N/W counties as the next cold front approaches. This could support some near critical fire weather for these area Thu aftn, but doesn't look like a "slam dunk" at this point.

Latest model guidance is in pretty good agreement that progressive upper flow will bring the next upper trough into the W CONUS midweek. It now appears that energy will tend to eject onto the Plains in two pieces - a northern wave Thu PM into Fri, and a southern wave over the weekend. The N wave looks to track through the Dakotas and be responsible for initial cold front that will drop temps into 50s for Fri, then 40s for Sat and Sun - which is actually still near to above normal. With this particular wave tracking so far to the N and the low level flow being mostly Wrly, it doesn't appear this system/front will have much moisture to work with. The second, southern wave will be the one to watch for possible pcpn as it digs into OK/TX Panhandle region on Sat, then eventually intensifies/phases in some form or fashion as it ejects E on Sun. Latest trends in deterministic solutions are for the phasing/intensifying to be too late and/or too far SE/E to bring appreciable moisture to the forecast area...with perhaps just some very lgt QPF along and behind a secondary cold front.
Ensemble trends generally support this trend as well, so while pcpn chcs continue in this latest forecast package, didn't see a compelling reason to incr above the 20% chances the blend gave. In fact, most recent 00Z EPS probs for >0.1" of QPF are about 10-20%, or less, and keep the higher probs over CO in upslope flow, and over the MS Valley region. Lack of snow and zonal upper flow should keep temps fairly seasonable into early next week.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1147 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

Significant weather: Gusty SW to W winds Mon afternoon, low level wind shear (LLWS) Mon night.

VFR with W to SW winds 6-10kt through dawn. Expect both incr mid to high clds and SW to W winds by late morning and into the afternoon as an upper disturbance tracks NE of the terminals.
Can't rule out some sprinkles, but don't think these will be prevalent enough to warrant inclusion at this time. CIGs should remain VFR. Gusts around 25kt possible through the aftn. Clds will decr Mon eve, but strong NW winds around 45kt continuing just above the surface could lead to some LLWS at both terminals after 02-03Z. Confidence: Medium to high.



GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

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