Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Eustis, NE

DISCUSSION
Issued at 420 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Sensible weather is on repeat through mid week as warm/hot temperatures, strong Srly winds, and low humidity (by mid-May standards) is expected again for both Tuesday and Wednesday.
Should finally get at least SOME moisture advection into the area by Wednesday afternoon/evening ahead of a cold front, but it will be far from "humid" with dew points still generally near or below 60F. Expect highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon, and overnight lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Changes arrive Wednesday eve/night with the arrival of a cold front associated with a potent upper level disturbance tracking across the Dakotas. As mentioned above, moisture return will be limited and a bit too late for widespread rain/storm chances, but probably just enough for some iso-scat convection over the N half of the area where forcing along the front will be strongest. Latest SPC Day 3 update has introduced some Slight (level 2 of 5) chances for severe thunderstorms for areas along/N of Hwy 92, and pulled the Marginal (level 1 of 5)
further S to around I-80. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main concern, with the tornado threat remaining pretty low given dry profiles/high LCLs. If some lower 60s Tds can indeed become established by 00Z Thu, then could envision some sig hail threat given 30-40kt of bulk shear and very steep lapse rates. Some models have been trending a bit stronger/further S with the upper trough, which would favor slightly slower ejection (more time for moisture advection) and more favorable overlap of shear and instability over our forecast area. Will need to watch these trends as Wed eve could indeed turn into our highest severe weather chance of the season thus far. (yes, low bar!)

Trough wraps up to our N/NE on Thu, which will lead to strong cold air advection and gusty NW winds of at least 35-45 MPH.
Latest blend calls for highs in the lower 70s to lower 80s, (solid 10+ deg colder) but this could be optimistic depending on where the low wraps up and cloud cover.

Later portions of the forecast appear to favor another warming trend late week into next weekend as upper flow turns zonal behind the departing Wed/Thu trough. Models suggest a return to SWrly flow at some point next weekend into the following week, but timing on that is uncertain. Moisture will be limited initially, due to Thursday's strong cold front...but this front should stall out over the S Plains, then try to return northward to some degree late weekend or early next week (days 6-8). But again, confidence on timing and details is very low attm.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 550 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Another high confidence (near 100%) VFR TAF period for GRI and EAR. Skies remain mostly clear through Tuesday.

SSE winds decrease this evening, but gusty south winds increase again on Tuesday. Despite the decrease winds, we should keep enough surface wind to avoid a significant LLWS concern tonight into Tuesday morning. Gusts in the 25-30kt range become likely Tuesday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 420 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Expect the hot and dry weather pattern to continue through mid- week, with fire weather conditions expected across portions of the region each day through Thursday.

The current Red Flag Warning appears to be in good shape and covering the areas with worst combination of strong winds (gusts 25-30 MPH) and low RH (near or below 20%). Expect slow, but steady, improvement towards sunset and don't see any reason why the headline end time will need to be extended.

Expect another hot and windy day on Tuesday, but with some minor differences. Wind gusts may actually trend a bit higher - more solidly 25-35 MPH, but the continued Srly flow should finally advect in at least marginally higher low level moisture. As such, latest forecast blend calls for min RHs a bit higher than today - generally in the low to mid 20s. Wednesday appears similar to today (Monday) on temperatures and wind gusts, but even higher RHs of 25-35% are expected for vast majority of the forecast area. Perhaps areas W of Hwy 283 could dip into the lower 20s. Unless RHs trend substantially lower, don't see the need for Red Flag Warnings either day since we have at least SOME greenup and both of these days appear marginal for RFWs.

For Thursday, strong NW wind gusts of 35-45 MPH (locally higher possible) are expected behind a cold front. Cooler temperatures will filter in, but the front will also clear out what little low level moisture arrives ahead of it...so appears a zone of near- critical to critical fire weather conditions could develop within a zone from around I-80 to the state line. Lowest RHs may actually reside over north central KS, but fuels there are not considered conducive to extreme fire growth.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041- 046>048-060>062-072>074-082>084.
KS...None.