Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stockville, NE

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

A decaying MCV continues to move slowly east-southeast across southern Nebraska. At the surface, a warm front extends from central Nebraska through northeast Nebraska. This is a localized boundary tied to the decaying MCV. Watching a cumulus field along and near this boundary. Shear in this area is very weak but there is decent surface based CAPE which appears to be uncapped. Could see a few isolated thunderstorms develop along and near the boundary late this afternoon and evening. Expecting these to be pulsey in nature and likely not severe given the lack of shear.

The better chance for stronger with potentially a few severe storms will reside across the Panhandle into far southwestern Nebraska.
Here shear is better with southeast low-level upslope flow maintaining a theta-e axis up through the high plains. Appears thunderstorms developing across eastern/central Wyoming will grow upscale across the southern Nebraska Panhandle this evening before moving into southwest Nebraska late this evening. Subsidence and more stable air along and east of Highway 83 due to the earlier MCV, and most models have the storms falling apart as they reach this environment. So, in summary, it appears the greatest potential for any strong/severe storms will be limited to the southern Nebraska Panhandle into far southwest Nebraska tonight. There very well could be another MCV develop from the convection overnight and decay across southern Nebraska Sunday morning.

Upper level ridging will begin to build northward across the Arizona and New Mexico Sunday. Strong instability develops along and west of Highway 83 Sunday afternoon...as mid-level lapse rates steepen and mid 60s dew points are maintained amidst southeast low-level flow.
Mid-level flow increases a bit on the northern side of the upper ridging which aids in better overall shear. However, there is really no defined wave evident. Again, looks to be a scenario where afternoon convection develops across eastern Wyoming and grows upscale as it moves eastward into a supportive environment. The better shear could lead to a bit better organization of storms and track farther eastward toward central Nebraska by late evening.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

A shortwave will be rotating eastward across Wyoming on the northern fringe of the ridging Monday. As this wave moves into eastern Wyoming and Appears a more organized area of thunderstorms should develop across the high plains Monday afternoon moving eastward Monday night.

Another shortwave and potential convection is expected Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening. Thereafter, upper level ridging begins to build northward across the region with a reprieve from the daily storm Thursday into Friday.

The heat though will be on the increase as the upper level ridging takes hold. Highs by Friday are likely to be in the 90s with even a few lower 100s possible across southwest Nebraska.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

High clouds will gradually thin from the west this afternoon.
Thunderstorms are likely to move into western Nebraska this evening, then weaken as they move into southwest Nebraska after midnight. Seeing some signal for potential low clouds and MVFR/local IFR across portions of the southern Sandhills and southwest Nebraska Sunday morning. Confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF at this time due to the potential thunderstorm activity tonight.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.