Tuesday, October19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Stockville, NE

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:58AMSunset 6:57PM Tuesday October 19, 2021 4:40 PM CDT (21:40 UTC) Moonrise 5:50PMMoonset 5:50AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stockville, NE
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location: 40.6, -100.37     debug


Area Discussion for - North Platte, NE
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FXUS63 KLBF 192055 AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 355 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

H5 analysis from earlier this morning had closed low pressure over far northwestern Colorado with a trough extending south of this feature, along the border of New Mexico and Arizona. Downstream of this feature, a ridge of high pressure extended north from the lower Ohio Valley, north into the northern Great Lakes. West of the NW Colorado low, a low amplitude ridge of high pressure extended form the central California coast, north into south central Oregon. West of this ridge, a vigorous trough of low pressure was present on satellite imagery this morning in the Gulf of Alaska. At the surface, low pressure was located over Imperial Nebraska with a surface trough extending south along the Colorado/Kansas border. A cold front extended north northeast of the low into the central and eastern Nebraska Sandhills. Temperatures varied widely this afternoon across the area as 2 PM CT temperatures ranged from 43 at Gordon to 69 at Broken Bow.

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

The main forecast challenge in the near term is precipitation chances and snow potential in the northwest tonight into mid morning Wednesday. For tonight: First off, the latest NAM12 and GFS solns, supported by the 12z HRRR, track the H5 low slightly further south with this forecast cycle. No surprise, better isentropic lift carries over into the overnight hours across the far northwestern forecast area, coinciding with temperatures cool enough to support snow. That being said, decided to increase snow accumulations across Sheridan into northwestern Cherry county. The inherited forecast had 1-2 inches and doubled this amount to 2 to 4 inches. I did go ahead and include some higher amounts in the Pine Ridge, if any convective enhanced snow comes to fruition. This is hinted at in forecast cross sections from this morning, which indicate a small area of upright lift with negative EPV noted. Went ahead and hoisted a winter weather advisory for tonight for Sheridan and western Cherry county. In the warm sector this evening, there will be some threat for isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the eastern portion of the forecast area. An area of meager low level moisture, has pushed north into south central and central Nebraska this afternoon with surface dew points in the upper 40s to around 50 at the KS/NE border. This has resulted in SB CAPES around 200J/KG per the latest SPC mesoanalysis. As the front pushes east this evening, some storms may fire along the front as it pushes into more favorable moisture. This activity will lift quickly northeast this evening. Deep layer shear is favorable for a strong storm or two, which may reach low end severe limits. Precipitation will linger some into the mid morning hours in the far northeast and northern forecast area as the H5 low lifts into northeastern Nebraska by midday. In its wake, northwesterly winds and very cool air on the western periphery of the system, will push south into the Sandhills and sw Nebraska Wednesday. Guidance highs have trended cooler this morning and trended the forecast downward accordingly for highs tomorrow with readings in the 40s to lower 50s south of the Interstate. High pressure will build overhead Wednesday night, resulting in the coldest temps so far this fall season. By sunrise Thursday, readings will be in the mid to upper 20s.

LONG TERM. (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

A benign weather pattern will settle into the area Thursday. Ridging will dominate the weather pattern across the west late in the week, transitioning east onto the plains for Saturday. A fast moving, northern stream shortwave, will track from the northern Rockies into the Dakotas Saturday night into Sunday. This may lead to a small chance for showers for the latter half of the weekend. Behind the exiting system, ridging will settle in across the central CONUS for early next week. Seasonal to above normal temperatures are expected in the long term forecast period with highs mainly in the 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

VFR conditions will continue this afternoon but change to MVFR to IFR overnight as a cold front moves through the area, starting with the northwest and moving east. Gusty winds will develop out of the north to northwest overnight and continue into tomorrow morning for much of the area. Rain is likely across northern Nebraska late tonight into tomorrow morning. Some rain may turn to snow or a wintry mix in areas of the northern Panhandle late tonight and into tomorrow morning.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening to 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Wednesday for NEZ004-094.



SYNOPSIS . Buttler SHORT TERM . Buttler LONG TERM . Buttler AVIATION . Meltzer


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
McCook, McCook Municipal Airport, NE28 mi47 minS 13 G 1910.00 miFair80°F37°F21%1002.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMCK

Wind History from MCK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS11
G20
S12SE7E8E8SE65SE8S6SE3SE5SE6E5E6E6E5E4E6SE7S7S7S6S8S13
G19
1 day agoS14S11SE6SE7SE7--S6S7S12
G18
SE33S3SE3S5E4E4SE5SE8S11S11
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G20
2 days agoNW7NW5W400SW50W6--W5W3SW30W3W3W5SW4SW4----S11
G16
S15S13S13
G23

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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