Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Stockville, NE

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 9:04PM Thursday July 29, 2021 10:56 AM CDT (15:56 UTC) Moonrise 11:21PMMoonset 11:27AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stockville, NE
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location: 40.6, -100.37     debug


Area Discussion for - North Platte, NE
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FXUS63 KLBF 291121 AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 621 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

SHORT TERM. (Today through Friday) Issued at 414 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

Forecast concerns focus on high heat across portions of the area. Then, attention turns to incoming disturbance expected to bring a period of rain and thunderstorms to the area including the threat for isolated strong to briefly severe thunderstorms.

Morning radar and satellite analysis depicts a surface cool front bisecting much of Nebraska. This boundary will continue to drive south as low-level flow continues to push it through the area. We've seen a few echoes develop along and immediately behind the initial wind shift line with more sustained convection occurring well east of the area. Though an isolated shower or weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled out through sunrise, believe this threat is too low to warrant maintaining PoPs. As sunrise approaches and kinematics diminish, expect this frontal boundary to stall generally around or just north of the I-80 corridor. This will lead to a divide across the local area will near-seasonable temperatures to the north and continued heat and humidity to the south. The hottest temperatures will once again reach the upper 90s to near 100 degrees and combined with afternoon dew points in the 60s, heat index values approaching Advisory levels will again be something to watch. Moisture pooling along the boundary may enhance a small area of moisture quality and lead to a brief period of heat indices approaching or touching 100 degF, however, this is likely to be confined to perhaps an hour or two in the early afternoon and with the potential for convection and cloud cover, confidence was too low in seeing anything prolonged enough to warrant any headlines. Nevertheless, high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s are nothing to scoff at and those with plans that include prolonged exposure to the heat should exercise caution and take appropriate measures to keep themselves safe in the elements. For areas north of the boundary, cooler easterly flow from an approaching Canadian high pressure system should keep temperatures much cooler than what was seen Wednesday, even though high temperatures are still forecast to be in the upper 80s to low 90s which is near to slightly above normal for late July.

Regarding the thunderstorm potential . the aforementioned surface boundary will stall near the I-80 corridor. Forecast soundings indicate deep mixing . up to around h6 . across southwest Nebraska with drier air arriving from the north of the Highway 20 corridor. This places much of our central zones, stretching from the eastern Panhandle through the Sandhills into portions of central Nebraska in low-level easterly flow and thus a narrow corridor of higher humidity with the greatest moisture quality being north of the boundary. Though flow aloft is rather weak, the orientation of near easterly surface winds around 10 to 15 knots and westerly flow aloft (around 10 to 15 knots in the h5-h4 layer) will be sufficient enough to lead to deep layer shear of around 20 to potentially 30 knots. NWP guidance is in good agreement in developing 2000-3000 j/kg MLCAPE along a narrow corridor following the Platte River valley. While this is more than adequate, some limiting factors involve a modest warm nose near h5 which limit more favorable lapse rates from developing. This may inhibit updrafts slightly but should one develop and sustain itself, isolated hail up to 1" will be possible. Damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph would also be possible with inverted-v forecast soundings and DCAPE values exceeding 1000 j/kg. Lift will be rather weak with only a weak perturbation at h5 expected to approach the area and mid-level heights nearly stagnant . therefore thinking coverage will be limited to isolated and perhaps widely scattered with decreasing potential heading into the evening hours. Ideas generally line up with the latest SPC Day 1 Marginal risk for the Panhandle stretching east to Highway 83.

PoPs will decrease through the evening hours for areas south of Highway 2, but will increase for areas north as the mid-level ridge begins to flatten with the approach of a modest shortwave at h5. Both the NAM and GFS indicate strong potential vorticity advection grazing the northern zones of the local area. This will lead to lee- cyclogenesis across northeast Colorado with an inverted surface trough beginning across the Nebraska Panhandle, tracking south through the area through the day Friday. Precipitation chances will be greatest to the north, closer to the PV anomaly with gradual southward expansion more closely tied to the developing low-level fgen. SPC has opted to remove the Day 2 Marginal Risk from the local area and agree with this as the greatest corridor of instability looks to remain across Eastern Nebraska. Given high precipitable water values exceeding 1.75" in spots, believe locally heavy rain primarily across north central Nebraska will be possible and this lines up well with the WPC Day 2 ERO Marginal Risk. With strong forcing from the mid-level disturbance, widespread rain exceed 0.5" appears likely with a few locations potentially topping 1.5" through late Friday night. Daytime highs on Friday will range from the upper 70s for areas expected to see more widespread rain and thunderstorms to upper 90s once again for much of southwest Nebraska where heat index values will again climb into the upper 90s to near 100 degF.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 414 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

Beginning 00z Saturday. Deeper troughing across the Northeast CONUS will begin to retrograde slightly with a few impulses dropping through the meridional flow aloft. This disturbances look to remain well east of the area, however, with surface high pressure building into the Great Lakes by late Sunday. This will largely shunt the greatest moisture south and west of the local area, limiting precipitation chances over the weekend and bringing in cooler than normal temperatures for Saturday and Sunday. Precipitation chances will be limited to the Panhandle region into far Southwest Nebraska within upslope regimes. How far east this activity can make it remains in question but will leave inherited PoPs from the model blend as is for now which keeps things generally limited to 25% or less for any one particular location. As the surface high pressure slowly shifts south and east early next week, low-level south to southwesterly flow will redevelop locally which will help temperatures moderate heading into the middle of next week while reintroducing moisture advection and thus more widespread PoPs for Tuesday and Wednesday when highs also return to the mid to upper 80s. A few more disturbances looks to track through the Plains for the latter half of next week which will keep the forecast from being dry. Though ensemble output varies a bit on temperatures, both the GEFS and EPS advertise a return to above normal temperatures around the first weekend of August, to what degree remains more uncertain.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 609 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

A band of low clouds along a frontal boundary draped across Nebraska will bring tempo MVFR or lower conditions to KVTN before pushing off to the south and dissipating early this morning. Otherwise, expect generally VFR conditions through the valid period. Expect scattered thunderstorms to develop near the front this afternoon so will use VCTS for a few hours at KLBF. Expect additional storms developing over the Dakotas Thursday night may brush KVTN so will use VCTS there toward the end of the valid period.

May see some low end wind gusts but overall winds are not expected to significantly impact aircraft operations through tonight. However, winds may be notably higher near thunderstorms.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SHORT TERM . NMJ LONG TERM . NMJ AVIATION . mbS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
McCook, McCook Municipal Airport, NE28 mi64 minNNW 510.00 miFair86°F66°F51%1016.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMCK

Wind History from MCK (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE8SE11SE11
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2 days agoE6SE8S10SE8SE7S6
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