Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Island Park, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Freeze warning remains in effect for into early this morning for most areas outside of NYC and immediate eastern/western suburbs.

2) A frontal system brings light rain late tonight into Wednesday, with milder weather returning mid to late week.

3) Conditions look potentially unsettled over the weekend, but there is still a fair amount of uncertainty.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
A cold airmass was across the region with high pressure overhead early this Tuesday morning, with temperatures below freezing inland, and temperatures expected to fall to below freezing through the overnight across much of the remainder of the region. The Freeze Warning remains in effect until 900 AM EDT.
A couple of record lows are possible this morning, see Climate section for the record lows.


KEY MESSAGE 2
A weak frontal system tracking east of the Great Lakes today, and then across the region tonight into Wednesday will bring a warm front through the region late tonight into Wednesday, and be accompanied with showers. The system is a little slower and today will be dry. With weak forcing along the warm front showers will become late tonight into Wednesday morning, and CAMs and NAM are showing widespread precipitation, so increased probabilities to likely. Warm advection and the frontal passage ill bring milder air into the area with temperatures nearing normal levels tonight into Wednesday. Thursday is likely the mildest day of the week with highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s from NYC north/west, and lower/mid 60s east as weak upper ridging builds behind the low.


KEY MESSAGE 3
Not much change for the weekend from the earlier forecast.
Upper air pattern heading into the weekend will a feature a weakening upper ridge just west of the area, sandwiched between an upper low over the Northern Plains and another east of New England and the Canadian Maritimes. At the same time, a surface high builds over the area on Friday, following what appears to be a back door cold front. A warm front associated with the western system then moves nearby on Saturday. This results in a strengthening boundary in close proximity to the area. This will be a key player in determining the coverage and extent of rain this weekend.

The 00z operational global models still indicate that the surface ridge could be strong enough to keep eastern areas, in particular eastern Long Island and southeast CT on the drier side, with higher probabilities of rain back toward NYC and northern NJ. The latest ECMWF has trended just a bit drier for the area, but still one of the wetter solutions. Either way, it looks like there will be a tight gradient somewhere close to the area, going from rain to no rain. Also, there is decent agreement in a persistent easterly flow which will keep high temperatures in the 50s both days, especially for eastern and coastal areas. Using the NBM, this results in cloudy conditions with a chance of rain everywhere Saturday and likely Pops for NYC north and west, but decreasing on Sunday as a frontal wave and boundary get suppressed to the south by strengthening high pressure.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure shifts offshore this morning with a frontal system approaching the area late in the TAF period.

VFR through this evening. MVFR vsby possible with -SHRA as early as 06z tonight. Cigs drops to MVFR after 12z Wednesday for most with chances for -SHRA continuing through the end of the TAF period.

Winds light out of the N or VRB early this morning. A more southerly wind direction develops late this morning into the afternoon with wind speeds increasing to near 10 kts, continuing tonight. There will be a brief period of 20-25 kt gusts for some coastal terminals late tonight into early Wednesday morning.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Some uncertainty in wind direction through about 17z as high pressure moves overhead. Winds will be light during this period.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Wednesday: MVFR or lower with a chance of showers, improving later in the day and at night with VFR returning. Some southerly wind gusts near 15-20 kt early.

Thursday: VFR.

Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR or lower late at night with a chance of showers.

Saturday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
With the approach of a frontal system late tonight into Wednesday southerly gusts will be marginally at SCA levels across the western ocean waters, west of Moriches Inlet, and Long Island south shore bays by late tonight through Wednesday and a Small Craft Advisory has been issued. East of Moriches Inlet and the Long Island eastern bays and eastern Long Island Sound may see gusts approaching 25 kt by mid to late Wednesday afternoon, and a SCA may be needed there. Mixing may be be limited tonight into Wednesday with warmer air moving into the region along with showers. After the passage of the frontal system winds and seas will be below SCA levels on the waters Wednesday night through Saturday night.

CLIMATE
Daily record low temperatures for Tue Apr 21:

KEWR: 31/1981 KBDR: 29/1956 KNYC: 26/1875 KLGA: 33/1956 KJFK: 34/1956 KISP: 30/1965

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ005>012.
NY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ067>071- 078>081.
NJ...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ002-004- 103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ345-353.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ355.