NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Temperatures were lowered a few degrees using MOS guidance to account for cooler than forecasted temperatures tonight.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

The center of high pressure is in the process of shifting offshore, where it will remain anchored for several days. Aloft, heights slightly rise tonight.

With the high shifting offshore, the synoptic flow has become S-SE. With tonight being the first night of onshore flow, do not expect widespread fog development. However, thinking patchy fog is at least possible in most locations outside of NYC. The best chances will be in river valleys.

Some low clouds have begun to creep northward from the Jersey shore as well into NYC. Otherwise, clear skies and light winds will lead to good radiational cooling conditions. With the gradual moistening of the area, temps should not be quite as cool as recent nights, but should still bottom out in the upper 40s in the coldest spots, in the 50s most elsewhere, and lower 60s invof NYC.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
High pressure will remain centered offshore. The flow aloft is mostly zonal Thursday and Thursday night, with a weak mid level shortwave trough passing through Friday afternoon/evening.

This pattern leads to quiet weather. A slight warming trend will continue through Friday, with highs Friday in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows Friday night in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
The multiple nights of onshore flow will likely lead to more widespread fog and/or low stratus development Thu night and Fri night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Warm and dry conditions continue into early next week with high pressure remaining over the Northeast. The high is expected to weaken Monday night into Tuesday as low pressure potentially develops off the Southeast coast and tracks north. Will go ahead and introduce some chance PoP Tuesday night into Wednesday for this threat.

Saturday appears to be the warmest day in the long term with highs mostly in the lower/mid 80s. The remainder of the long term will see highs from the mid 70s to lower 80s.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure remains centered to our east.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. The exception is outside of NYC terminals with the potential for fog overnight/early this morning which would reduce visibilities to MVFR to IFR.

Light and variable winds becoming SE-S under 10kt later this morning into early afternoon, returning to light and variable this evening.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Brief MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys possible before daybreak, but an overall low chance.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday afternoon-Monday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR or lower fog/clouds for the non-city terminals each late night/early morning.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Quiet on the waters with high pressure in control. A longer period E swell will get no higher than 2 ft at 8-9s through the end of the week.

Conditions should remain below SCA levels through the weekend, however seas are forecast to build to 5 ft on Mon as swells increase from a low pressure system well to the south.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic concerns through the middle of next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
There is a moderate rip current risk at the NYC beaches Thursday and Friday, with a low risk of rips at the Nassau and Suffolk beaches. There is a chance that some moderate rips will be possible on Friday across the eastern beaches.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.