Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Island Park, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Dangerous rip currents expected Thursday into early Thursday evening.

2) Breezy conditions with the potential for severe thunderstorms tomorrow.

3) Rain, potentially heavy early next week with thunderstorms possible Monday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Southerly flow to near 25-30 kt will create rough surf and dangerous rip currents along the ocean beaches Thursday into early Thursday evening. Breaking waves near 4 to 7 ft are likely. High rip current risk remains in effect.


KEY MESSAGE 2
A strong low pressure system passing over the Great Lakes tomorrow morning will bring impacts to the area. A warm front pushes north into the early morning hours which may be accompanied by scattered light showers or spotty drizzle, mainly for the northern tier. As we become warm sectored, a southerly flow increases over the area quite substantially resulting in sustained winds 15-20mph with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph. A few gusts may approach 40 mph, especially in any areas that are able to scatter out a morning overcast cloud deck.

By late morning, western areas may be able to break out into some sunshine which will assist in raising temperatures, increasing wind via BL mixing, and increase instability. The cold front then pushes in from the west into the early afternoon. The dynamics of this system are more robust that usual with 0-6 km shear on the order of 50-70kt. The biggest question will be on the development of sufficient instability for the front to interact with and develop thunderstorms. The thinking now is that by early afternoon, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop west of the area and moves fairly quickly east such that the primary threat for strong to severe thunderstorms remains from 12-5pm. The primary threat for any thunderstorm would be damaging wind gusts.

As any thunderstorm shifts east, interactions with the marine BL near the coast should allow for the weakening of any storms given the lack of instability. If a storm remains persistent enough as it travels east, it may be local strong enough to bring strong wind gusts through the low level inversion, though this remains a decreasing threat for areas further east.

The storm threat quickly ends by evening with winds falling off toward sunset as well as the winds shift to a more WSW with the frontal passage.


KEY MESSAGE 3
Low pressure is expected to approach from the south towards early next week. Onshore flow will make for relatively cooler temperatures across the region. Shower chances start late Sunday night, become most likely Monday and taper off early Tuesday. Rain could potentially be heavy at times with slight chance of thunderstorms Monday. PWATS could approach near 1.75 inches for Monday across the coastal areas.

Subsequent forecasts will likely have timing changes as there is uncertainty with model placement of precipitation and low pressure.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A warm front approaches the terminals, lifting to the north tonight into Thursday morning. A cold front moves through Thursday afternoon.

Mainly VFR. Isolated to widely scattered showers around this afternoon from NYC terminals on NW. Brief MVFR possible. An isolated thunderstorm also cannot be entirely ruled out, but confidence remains too low to include in the TAF.

Additional showers around Thu AM as the warm front moves through, and this could lead to MVFR/IFR conditions with low cigs, mainly after 9Z. Increasing chances for TSRA early Thu PM ahead of the trailing cold front, and introduced a PROB30 to highlight this potential thru 20Z Thu.

S-SE flow today 10-15 kt, with a few gusts up to 20 kt, strongest at coastal terminals. Winds settle to 10 kt or less tonight. S/SSW then increases through Thursday morning, with gusts 25-30 kt developing after 12Z. Isolated gusts to 35 kt Thu PM.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Isolated thunderstorm can't be ruled out this afternoon, but confidence too low to include in the TAF at this time.

Occasional gusts up to 20 kt possible thru early this evening.

Uncertainty with flight categories Thursday morning. Conditions could remain VFR.

Timing of TSRA Thu PM could be off by +/- 2 hours.

Isolated gusts 35 to 40 kt possible Thu PM.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday PM: Showers and thunderstorms possible thru late afternoon, MVFR/IFR possible. S/SW winds 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt, strongest near the coast. Winds begin to lighten in the evening.

Friday: VFR. W wind gusts 20 kt.

Saturday: VFR. WNW-NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Sunday-Monday: MVFR or lower at times with rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub-SCA conditions through tonight. Winds and seas both increase to above SCA thresholds late tonight into Thursday morning. A southerly flow will fairly quickly develop by 6AM with gusts increasing to a peak around 30-35 kt through the day on all waters with seas increasing to 6-8 feet on the ocean. While 35+ kt gusts will be possible, they should be infrequent enough to prevent the issuance of gales. Thunderstorms will also be possible early Thursday afternoon which could bring 35kt gusts or higher.

Winds shift to more W by THursday evening and fall below SCA thresholds on all waters. Residual high waves on the ocean will allow the SCA to continue there through at least the night and possibly into the day on Friday, especially for eastern zones. Sub- SCA conditions look likely on all waters by Friday night lingering through the weekend.

Low pressure may impact the waters on Monday, with SCA conditions possible.

Rip Currents:

Today, the rip current risk is moderate due to SE flow increasing to around 10kt and waves around 2 ft.

For Thursday, the rip current risk is high with strong S winds and waves around 4-6 ft.

For Friday, the rip current risk is moderate to high with lingering swell and gusty W winds.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.