Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fire Island, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A frontal wave passes to the south today and will bring cloudy and wet conditions to the area. Showers are already ongoing and coverage is expected to increase heading into the morning hours. Moisture increases as the frontal boundary slowly drifts closer to the area, with pwat values expected to reach just below 2 inches. This moisture combined with lift provided by the right rear quadrant of an upper level jet and some subtle disturbances moving through a mostly zonal 500mb flow will continue to result in showers. No thunderstorms are expected given only limited and shallow MUCAPE.
However, a rumble of thunder can not be completely ruled out.
Although thunder is not expected, there could be some low topped convective activity that can produce heavy downpours given the anomalously high moisture. At this time no hydrologic impacts are expected. The steadier and heavier rain will likely be in the morning hours. In the afternoon, coverage and intensity are expected to decrease. Totals are about half an inch for NYC, northeast NJ and Long Island with 0.25 to 0.50 inches for the Lower Hudson Valley and southern CT. Locally higher amounts up to an inch are possible.

The frontal wave will pull the boundary farther offshore tonight and high pressure will start nosing in from the northeast. As drier air filters in, PoPs decrease, but still remain slight chance/chance through the night.

NBM was followed for temperatures giving highs in the 60s and lows in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
High pressure continues to build in from the northeast on Sunday.
PoPs continue to decrease with a dry day expected for the most part, especially for eastern Long Island and eastern CT. Confidence in also increasing in some breaks of sun for these eastern areas and have lowered sky cover just a bit. Given this, also upped temperatures a few degrees in these areas. Otherwise NBM was followed for temps through this time period.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A nearly stationary front remains south of the region Tuesday as another wave of low pressure moves along the boundary with a chance of showers by late day. With the approach of a trough and surface low moving through the upper Midwest and into southern Canada Tuesday night into Wednesday, the front is expected to beginning moving to the north as a warm front, and likely pass to the north during Wednesday. A cold front approaching during Thursday and passes through the area Thursday night. While there will be slight to chance probabilities of rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday night, the best chances for rainfall will be with the cold front approaching during the day Thursday, and currently forecast to pass through the region Thursday night. Precipitable water values increase to around 1.75 inches, and there will be surface based and elevated CAPE in place. With a warm and unstable airmass ahead of the front, there is the potential for thunderstorms, some of which may produce briefly heavy rainfall.
At this time the storms will be moving rather quickly, and training is not expected, so hydrologic impacts are not expected. An amplifying ridge across the central United States Thursday night approaches for Friday and into the beginning of next weekend. With no targets of opportunity have used the deterministic NBM through the extended period.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A stationary front remains south of the area, across the Mid Atlantic region and well south of Long Island as a weak low moves along the boundary through today. The front may move farther to the south, with low pressure exiting, this evening into tonight. High pressure builds into the region from the northeast late tonight.

Low to moderate confidence forecast with the timing of flight category changes into this morning, and for timing of showers.

VFR through most of the overnight with a chance of showers, and MVFR conditions late, and toward sunrise. Showers and IFR conditions become more likely early this morning. There is a chance that northern terminals remain MVFR. Showers are expected to become much more widely scattered by 20Z so there may be some improvements back up to MVFR briefly into the late afternoon with IFR becoming possible again after 00Z Sunday, especially near the coast.

E winds less than 10kt become more NE this morning, and increase to 10-14kt. NE winds continue into this evening around 10kt.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely through this morning for timing of changing flight categories.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Late tonight: Lowering chances of showers. MVFR to IFR likely.

Sunday - Monday: Slight chance of showers, mainly from the New York City terminals and west, with MVFR to IFR possible at times.
Otherwise VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, slight chance of showers late day into the night, with a chance of MVFR to IFR.

Wednesday: Mostly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms with a period of sub-VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
An easterly wind will bring waves to 5 ft on the ocean waters.
Stuck closer to WaveWatch as NWPS seemed a bit low given a sustained wind at 15-20 kt for several hours. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for tonight. Otherwise, sub SCA conditions expected through Monday night.

Winds and seas remain below SCA levels across the forecast waters Tuesday through Thursday. With the approach of a cold front Thursday, passing through the waters Thursday night, southwest to west winds will be increasing. By later Thursday night wind gusts on the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet may approach SCA levels, and ocean seas may build to near 5 feet.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected Tuesday through the end of the week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Sticking with moderate risk of rip currents for ocean beaches today.
Some uncertainty in exact strength and direction of winds which in turn will affect wave heights and direction. If winds end up more northerly than forecast, the rip current activity will likely be lower and the risk may be updated during the day.

Winds will be more easterly on Sunday an around 10 kt. An E wave component around 4 ft at 6s will result in a low risk of rip current activity.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.