Friday, July10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fire Island, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:30AMSunset 8:27PM Friday July 10, 2020 1:45 AM EDT (05:45 UTC) Moonrise 11:59PMMoonset 10:52AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 125 Am Edt Fri Jul 10 2020
.tropical storm warning in effect...
Overnight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers late.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of tstms. Showers.
Fri night..Tropical storm conditions expected. S winds 30 to 40 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely in the morning, then chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the evening.
Sun..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms early in the evening. Chance of showers in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the evening.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 125 Am Edt Fri Jul 10 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak high pressure will gradually shift farther east going into tonight, giving way to approaching tropical storm fay for Friday. This tropical storm will move northward along the coast from mid- atlantic and eventually make landfall near the new york city area Friday night. The tropical storm moves north of the region Friday night into Saturday and this will be followed by a series of weak fronts moving into Wednesday. Please refer to the national hurricane center for the latest track and details in regards to tropical storm fay.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fire Island, NY
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location: 40.61, -73.23     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 100532 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 132 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. Weak high pressure will gradually shift farther east going into tonight, giving way to approaching Tropical Storm Fay for Friday. This tropical storm will move northward along the coast and make landfall near the New York City area Friday night. The tropical storm eventually moves north of the region Saturday and this will be followed by a series of weak fronts moving into Wednesday. High pressure builds in for late week into the next weekend. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest track and details in regards to Tropical Storm Fay.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. Tropical Storm Fay continues to move northward along the southern Delmarva tonight. While high clouds have begun to overspread the area, any rain remains well south of the region. Reduced PoPs through the overnight period, with just a few showers possible towards daybreak along the coast. Otherwise the forecast remains on track. Lows were from a consensus of all data, just in the upper 60s to lower 70s, staying mild with light onshore flow and increasing clouds.

A moderate risk of rip current development will continue for the ocean beaches via long period S swell.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/. Tropical Storm Fay will move north towards the region Friday and eventually across near the NYC region Friday night before weakening as it moves farther inland. Again, please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest track and details in regards to Tropical Storm Fay.

There is a tropical storm warning in effect for all of the coastal zones of Northeast NJ, NYC, Southern Westchester NY, Long Island and Coastal Connecticut as well as the adjacent waters. There is a flash flood watch Friday morning through Friday evening for the entire region. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the region under a marginal risk for severe weather for Friday into Friday night for damaging winds and tornadoes with some thunderstorms that form.

The area can expect increasing and gusty east to southeast flow highest along the coast, widespread rain showers with potential for torrential downpours especially in any embedded thunderstorms, as well as high surf with a high risk of rip currents Friday into Friday night.

The period of highest winds looks to be late Friday afternoon into Friday night. Tropical storm force winds of up to around 40 mph with gusts in the 50 to 55 mph range will be the upper limits of the tropical storm winds.

Models show some weak instability but very high layer precipitable water values of around 2 to 2.3 inches. Forecast model soundings show tall and thin CAPE from low to upper levels. There will be flash flood potential with more factors showing a favorable environment for heavy rainfall. With low to upper level flow showing the flow to be nearly parallel, training of showers and thunderstorms can be expected where multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms will move across.

With the low level flow, that will become more east to southeast and then more southerly with greater height. The shear magnitude is forecast to be around 30 to 40 kt with a large veering profile 0-6km. This can compensate for the weak instability and quickly evolve thunderstorms into stronger and potentially more severe thunderstorms. The low level shear is sufficient for few possible tornadoes as low level helicity increases.

The heavy rain threat, gusty winds, and thunderstorm chances lower late Friday night into early Saturday as Tropical Storm Fay moves north of the region and weakens.

Max temperatures are much cooler on Friday with the easterly flow and rain. Min temperatures Friday night will not lower much. Used raw consensus for max and min temperatures. There will be a small diurnal temperature range. Highs are forecast in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the lower 70s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. Tropical Storm Fay moves farther to the north of the region Saturday morning. Otherwise mean trough axis will continue to work towards the coast on Saturday, and remain fairly stationary just east of the region through early next week as it is reinforced by a series of shortwaves rotating through Great Lakes into New England. Decent agreement that by mid week this trough axis finally lifts ne of the area, with heat ridging building into the area for late week into the weekend.

This setup will have a deep S/SW flow across the region Saturday through Tuesday, with a series of weak troughs moving through the region. This will spell a very warm and humid pattern with potential for scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorm activity as shortwave energy rotates through with the surface troughs. Timing/location/coverage/intensity of threat will be determined by timing of shortwaves, which will have to be refined at shorter lead time.

General agreement with the mean trough axis lifting northeast of the region Wed, with building heights. If this plays out, deep WSW flow will advect in the building heat across the central US, with the hottest airmass of the season for late week into the weekend. With the region lying on northern periphery of this ridge and active westerlies across US/Canada border, and potentially moderate to high instability to work with, an occasional MCS or organized convective threat rolling through the area is not out of the question during this period.

High surf of 6 to 8 ft and dangerous rip currents are expected on Saturday. The high rip current risk will likely continue into early next week.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Potential high impact event for the NYC terminals on Friday as Tropical Storm Fay tracks across or near the region. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest forecast track information.

VFR through early tonight. IFR conditions will overspread the area from east to west, with some gradual improvement to MVFR after 12Z.

Rain will be heavy at times with a chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours on Friday.

E winds less than 10 kt overnight will then gradually strengthen through the day as the storm works northward along the Mid Atlantic coast. There is the potential for tropical storm force winds at the coastal terminals during the evening hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. Friday Night. MVFR or lower conds. Rain, possibly heavy at times with chance TSRA. Tropical storm force winds possible in the evening at the coastal terminals. Saturday. MVFR or lower cond likely in SHRA/TSRA, especially in the afternoon. Sunday and Monday. Continued chance mainly afternoon SHRA/TSRA, with MVFR or lower cond possible. Tuesday. VFR.

MARINE. The pressure gradient will remain relatively weak through tonight. Conditions on the forecast waters will remain below SCA thresholds.

Conditions will become more rough with the passage of Tropical Storm Fay on Friday into Friday night. Tropical storm force conditions can be expected. Max winds will increase to around 35 kt with gusts up to around 45-50 kt across the waters. Like mentioned in the short term section, winds and thunderstorms trend lower late Friday night into early Saturday as the tropical storm moves north of the region and weakens.

Sub SCA wind gusts expected this weekend into early next week. Rough ocean seas of 6 to 9 ft in a southerly swell on Saturday morning will subside to 4 to 7 ft by late Saturday, but likely remain through early next week.

HYDROLOGY. There is a chance for flash flooding with showers and embedded thunderstorms associated with Tropical Storm Fay Friday into Friday night. Around 1 to 3 inches of rain is forecast Friday into early Saturday with locally higher amounts possible in any heavier rain bands. Smaller streams and rivers and urban, low lying poor drainage areas will be the more vulnerable locations for flooding.

Otherwise, no significant widespread rain expected thereafter through the rest of the forecast period.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Potential for beach flooding and beach erosion, particularly during the times of high tide Friday afternoon into Saturday afternoon. Localized dune erosion is possible, but threat for washovers is low.

In terms of coastal flooding, there is a low potential for minor coastal flood impacts from combined surge and wave set-up. This will ultimately be dependent on track and intensity of the approaching low. Generally around 2ft of surge is needed to reach minor flood thresholds, which is currently not shown in any extratropical guidance, but a potential SE jet of 20-30kt and long period se swells could result in some localized minor flood impacts for vulnerable coastal locales of LI, Jamaica Bay and lower NY/NJ harbor for the Fri Night high tidal cycle.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Tropical Storm Warning for CTZ009>012. Flash Flood Watch from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for CTZ005>012. NY . Tropical Storm Warning for NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179. Flash Flood Watch from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM EDT this morning through Saturday evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179. High Surf Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ075-080-081-178-179. NJ . Tropical Storm Warning for NJZ006-106-108. Flash Flood Watch from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE . Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . JM NEAR TERM . FEB/JM SHORT TERM . JM LONG TERM . NV AVIATION . DW MARINE . JM/NV HYDROLOGY . JM/NV TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 25 mi155 min SE 9.7 G 12 78°F1014.8 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 30 mi45 min E 7.8 G 7.8 75°F 1 ft73°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 30 mi145 min ESE 9.7 G 12 78°F1014.6 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 32 mi45 min ENE 3.9 G 5.8 74°F 74°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 32 mi51 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 75°F 1016.6 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 39 mi51 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 75°F 73°F1015.6 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 42 mi51 min 77°F 75°F1015.9 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 42 mi51 min E 5.1 G 7 76°F 76°F1016 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 44 mi51 min ESE 6 G 8 77°F 1015.7 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 49 mi51 min 77°F 77°F1015.8 hPa
MHRN6 49 mi51 min E 6 G 7

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY13 mi52 minESE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F73°F85%1015.8 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY15 mi49 minE 510.00 miOvercast75°F75°F100%1015.9 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY24 mi49 minVar 39.00 miOvercast76°F72°F88%1016.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFRG

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW6SW5CalmS4SW3S5SW7S7S7S8S9S9S9S10S11S11S11S8SE6SE3SE5SE4E5
1 day agoS8S10S8S6S7S6S8SW9SW9SW14SW11S14SW13SW12SW9SW10SW9SW8SW11S8S7SW8SW8SW8
2 days agoE7SE8E5SE4E5E6SE7E8SE10E8SE10SE9SE10SE11SE11SE9SE7E8E6E4E3S7S7S9

Tide / Current Tables for Fire Island Coast Guard Station, Long Island, New York
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Fire Island Coast Guard Station
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:09 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 12:27 PM EDT     1.82 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:23 PM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.91.510.60.30.10.20.50.91.31.61.81.81.61.20.90.60.40.50.71.11.41.7

Tide / Current Tables for Point o' Woods, Long Island, New York
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Point o' Woods
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:35 AM EDT     0.75 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:59 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:14 PM EDT     0.67 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:13 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.70.70.70.70.50.30.20.100.10.20.40.50.60.70.60.50.40.30.20.20.20.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.