Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Samak, UT

DISCUSSION
A few things for the upcoming storm have increased toward high confidence. The first, it will get very cold behind this front across the entire region. The majority of the ensemble members have shifted toward a drier, quicker precipitation event for this cold front for the bulk of northern Utah. And finally, that given the strong cold air advection, a significant high wind event is increasing in probability for lower Washington County near Black Ridge Canyon and across the Beaver Dam Mountains.

A strong cold front will shift across the region Thursday morning into Thursday evening. This front will reach the Salt Lake City area around 8 to 10 AM, which is significantly earlier than yestesrday's runs. The bulk of the guidance has also shifted toward a short period of precipitation with the front. The 13Z NBM suggests a less than 20% chance of 1 inch of snow across the Wasatch Front valley floors, around 50% for the benches. This earlier time also significantly reduces the potential for impact with this snow, given full insolation and warm surfaces.

The northern mountains have also trended lower with snowfall potential, now with a less than 15% chance of seeing 9 inches or more in 24 hours.

The one area where snowfall may become more impactful is the I-15 corridor from near Scipio to Cedar City, particularly the higher summits. The combination of northerly flow and orographics will support a period of snow from late afternoon into the first half of the overnight period Thursday. There is a 60% chance snowfall totals will exceed 2 inches by 3 AM Friday, particularly between Kanosh and Beaver. Those with travel plans on I-15 during this time should be prepared for winter driving conditions.

No winter headlines are needed at this time. Will monitor the lake effect snow threat across Salt Lake and Tooele Counties Thursday night as the HRRR shows around a 20% chance of more than 2 inches of snow across Erda, Stansbury Park and the far western Salt Lake Valley.

With strong cold air advection, strong gap winds will occur near north-south canyons in lower Washington County after 9 PM Thursday through at least 6 AM Friday. There was a 90% chance of wind gusts in excess of 58 mph in the 12Z HRRR in this area, including Toquerville, La Verkin, Hurricane, Virgin, and the area near the Beaver Dam Mountains including Shivwits. Issued a High Wind Watch for this area...to ensure this signal remains as robust in the next set of model runs.

Very cold temperatures are a near certainty, with almost all areas above 3000 feet falling to below freezing overnight each night through at least Saturday. Freeze Warnings are in effect. Those who have turned their sprinkler systems on for the spring should consider draining and/or rewinterizing to prevent property damage.

AVIATION
KSLC...Gusty south to southwest winds will remain in place over the KSLC terminal through the evening hours, with around a 30% chance of a switch to west-northwest winds between 01 and 04Z this evening. South winds prevail overnight with increasing lower level clouds and a chance for light rain showers after 06Z. A cold front moves through the area tomorrow morning, bringing rain initially and a transition to snow late morning/ early afternoon that will bring MVFR to IFR conditions.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Breezy south to southwest winds prevail across Utah and southwest Wyoming through the remainder of the day today, with peak gusts between 20 and 30kts.
Low to mid-level cloud cover will increase across the area through the evening alongside increasing chances for rain showers across the northern terminals, especially after 03Z. Coverage of rain/snow will increase through the morning on Thursday as a cold front moves into the region.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...Freeze Warning from 8 PM Thursday to noon MDT Friday for UTZ102>106-114>116-118>122-129-130.

Freeze Warning from 8 PM Friday to noon MDT Saturday for UTZ102>106-114>116-118>122-129-130.

High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for UTZ123.

WY...None.