Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Samak, UT

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Monday)...High pressure is centered over northwestern Mexico this morning, putting Utah and southwest Wyoming under a hot and dry southwest flow aloft. Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday, with highs 5-10F above seasonal normals, with the greatest departure from climo over northern portions of the forecast area. A trough over the Pacific will steadily make its way toward the coast over the weekend.
Because of this, highs will rise a few degrees on Sunday with warm advection and increasing west to southwest flow as the trough gets closer.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Monday)...Southwest Wyoming and Utah will be in enhanced southwest flow Monday between a powerful ridge of high pressure near the border of southern Arizona and New Mexico and northern Mexico and a longwave trough tracking inland from the Pacific. There will be several days of enhanced southwest flow prior to Monday, but Monday afternoon will likely be the peak as the pressure gradient strengthens with the closer proximity to the trough. Relative humidity will continue to be very low throughout, with the whole region ranging from the single digits to low teens.
This will bring increased fire danger. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for several zones throughout southern Utah, where winds will be strongest and relative humidity will be lowest.

A dry cold front associated with the longwave trough will slide in from the northwest Monday into Tuesday. Measurable precipitation is unlikely, but it will bring some relief to the much warmer than normal temperatures. After low to mid 90s for most valleys, with 100s for lower Washington County, Lake Powell, and the San Rafael Swell Monday, temperatures will cool around 5-10F for southwest Wyoming and northern Utah and around 3-6F elsewhere in Utah. Breezy northwest winds will come with the front, but speeds and gusts will be lighter than the southwest winds the day before.

The track of the longwave trough will result in the ridge to the southeast retrograding to off the coast of southern California and Baja California. It will quickly establish a similar position to earlier in the week. It will track eastward through Wednesday, where temperatures will increase throughout southwest Wyoming and Utah to similar values as Monday. Winds will be lighter, but relative humidity will drop into the single digits and teens again.

The synoptic set up will stay consistent Thursday and Friday with high pressure to the southeast. Temperatures will increase to the mid to upper 90s for most valleys, including the urban corridor, with 100s for much of southern and parts of eastern Utah. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement on another longwave trough tracking into the eastern Pacific Thursday or Friday, which would further enhance southwest flow.

AVIATION
KSLC...Light southeast winds will last through much of the morning. Gusts will increase to around 20 knots by 15Z. Winds will lighten and transition to northwest around 21Z with scattered clouds building in.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Light winds, generally from southeast to southwest, will prevail through much of the morning.
Winds from the same directions will increase by 15Z. Gusts will be strongest in southwest Wyoming and southwest Utah, where 20-30 knot gusts will continue through around 03Z. Scattered clouds will build in around 21Z.

FIRE WEATHER
A trough in the Pacific will continue east over the weekend before moving onshore Monday. This will keep conditions hot and dry over Utah, with winds becoming increasingly breezy as the trough gets closer. This will result in near critical to critical fire weather conditions over southern Utah given the gusty winds, low relative humidities, and poor overnight recoveries. The trough will pass across the area Tuesday, bringing a slight increase in relative humidities, a slight decrease in temperatures, and lighter winds into Wednesday. However, high pressure is expected to rebuild thereafter, with winds increasing late in the week as another trough approaches.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for UTZ489-494>498.

WY...None.