Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hideout, UT

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Monday)...Mid level water vapor loop shows the Great Basin positioned between a strong ridge extending from Mexico into the Four Corners region and a near-stationary trough in the PacNW. A modest amount of moisture can be seen advecting through overhead within the corresponding deep southwesterly flow, which is resulting in a bit of mid to high level cloud cover. With subsidence associated with the ridge and PWATs only generally around 50-80% of normal, area radars remain quiet and no development of precipitation is anticipated through the remainder of the day. With H7 temps roughly 13C to 18C, afternoon temps are running mild though, with high marks in the 80s expected across southwest Wyoming, 90s for most lower elevation Utah valleys, and low 100s for Lower Washington County and lower Zion NP.

For Sunday, synoptic features change minimally, as does the forecast evolution. Overnight temperatures remain quite mild, and with H7 temps nudging upwards, Sunday afternoon highs see a corresponding bump upward. Current guidance suggests around a 40% chance of hitting or exceeding 100F at KSLC for the first time this year, which if it happens would be slightly ahead of the climatological normal of July 4th. All that said, it'll be hot more or less everywhere. If spending time outdoors, and especially if recreating, try and wear light colored clothing, find ways to stay cool, and have more than ample hydration. With little available moisture as well as continued subsidence, precip chances remain close to zero.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Monday), Issued 319 AM MDT...
Southwest Wyoming and Utah will be in enhanced southwest flow Monday between a powerful ridge of high pressure near the border of southern Arizona and New Mexico and northern Mexico and a longwave trough tracking inland from the Pacific. There will be several days of enhanced southwest flow prior to Monday, but Monday afternoon will likely be the peak as the pressure gradient strengthens with the closer proximity to the trough. Relative humidity will continue to be very low throughout, with the whole region ranging from the single digits to low teens. This will bring increased fire danger. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for several zones throughout southern Utah, where winds will be strongest and relative humidity will be lowest.

A dry cold front associated with the longwave trough will slide in from the northwest Monday into Tuesday. Measurable precipitation is unlikely, but it will bring some relief to the much warmer than normal temperatures. After low to mid 90s for most valleys, with 100s for lower Washington County, Lake Powell, and the San Rafael Swell Monday, temperatures will cool around 5-10F for southwest Wyoming and northern Utah and around 3-6F elsewhere in Utah. Breezy northwest winds will come with the front, but speeds and gusts will be lighter than the southwest winds the day before.

The track of the longwave trough will result in the ridge to the southeast retrograding to off the coast of southern California and Baja California. It will quickly establish a similar position to earlier in the week. It will track eastward through Wednesday, where temperatures will increase throughout southwest Wyoming and Utah to similar values as Monday. Winds will be lighter, but relative humidity will drop into the single digits and teens again.

The synoptic set up will stay consistent Thursday and Friday with high pressure to the southeast. Temperatures will increase to the mid to upper 90s for most valleys, including the urban corridor, with 100s for much of southern and parts of eastern Utah. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement on another longwave trough tracking into the eastern Pacific Thursday or Friday, which would further enhance southwest flow.

AVIATION
KSLC...Light southeast winds will last through much of the morning. Gusts will increase to around 20 knots by 15Z. Winds will lighten and transition to northwest around 21Z with scattered clouds building in.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Light winds, generally from southeast to southwest, will prevail through much of the morning.
Winds from the same directions will increase by 15Z. Gusts will be strongest in southwest Wyoming and southwest Utah, where 20-30 knot gusts will continue through around 03Z. Scattered clouds will build in around 21Z.

FIRE WEATHER
The forecast area will remain positioned between a near stationary trough in the PacNW and strong ridging extending into the Four Corners region into early next week. This will support increasingly hot and dry conditions through Monday, along with modestly gusty afternoon winds. Given poor overnight recovery and winds peaking Monday ahead of a weak and largely dry disturbance, pattern remains favorable for areas of critical fire weather conditions where fuels are sufficiently dry. Following the weak disturbance, temperatures cool slightly and humidities rise slightly. Forecast continues to suggest this is short lived however, with support for a quick return to hot, dry, and modestly breezy conditions with poor overnight humidity recovery by Thursday.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for UTZ489-494>498.

WY...None.