Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bellmore, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A warm front struggles north of the region today into this evening. Diurnal heating should allow for fog to gradually improve this morning into early afternoon along the coastal plain. Stratus/dense fog bank across the ocean east of the central and southern NJ may work back along immediate southern and eastern coastal areas late this afternoon into evening.
Plenty of stratus today, which will limit mixing and heating, keeping mainly in the 70s, except lower 80s west of Hudson.

Areas west of the Hudson River, away from marine influence, will see marginal surface based instability develop this afternoon with potential for a few breaks of sun. Combined with weak upper energy approaching from the SW this aft/eve and marginal deep layer shear, isolated to scattered thunderstorms development is possible btwn 3 and 10pm. The organized severe thunderstorm threat is very marginal (less than 5% prob for LoHud and NE NJ). Any showers and thunderstorms that develop have the potential of producing heavy rainfall, as the storm will be relatively slow moving (east at 20-25 mph) there is potential for local nuisance and urban flooding, mainly across northeastern New Jersey, the lower Hudson Valley, and into New York City. Isolated to widely scattered storm coverage should limit flash flood threat to very marginal (less than 5% prob for NYC and points N&W). Thunderstorm potential and intensity decreases working eastward late this aft/eve through NYC/SW CT into LI/E CT with greater maritime influence, but still potential for isolated elevated thunder this evening.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/
Once the upper disturbance moves through the region this evening, dry weather is expected into Thursday morning. With the area in a warm and humid airmass air temperatures are expected to range in the mid 80s along the coast to the lower 90s inland, and with dew points rising into the upper 60s and lower 70s heat indices will peak in the mid 90s to near 100. The area will become increasing unstable during the afternoon into the evening, and with the approach of a cold front and shortwave showers and thunderstorms become likely. Some of the thunderstorms could become severe with damaging wind gusts the primary threat, small hail is also possible, and an isolated tornado and/or waterspout cannot be ruled out. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the area in a slight risk, with the remainder in the marginal risk for severe weather.
While heavy rainfall is also possible the storms will be moving fairly quickly, and training is not expected. With the passage of the cold front Thursday night the showers and thunderstorms will end. High pressure then builds toward the region for Friday, with slightly cooler temperatures.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Bit of a pattern change as we head into this weekend and early next week. Heights aloft start rising Friday night as a broad upper level ridge builds in over the eastern half of the country. At the surface, high pressure generally dominates. This pattern will lead to hot and humid conditions, with potential for heat headlines.

Highest confidence in high heat is Monday and Tuesday once the upper level ridge establishes itself more. Away from the coast expecting mid to upper 90s each day with upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints resulting in max heat indices 100-105. While Sunday will still be hot, there is some uncertainty given some guidance now hinting at energy rounding the base of the ridge and bringing clouds and showers. This will have a big impact on temperatures and will have to monitor this trend. For now stuck with NBM for PoPs for this which has only slight chance late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Warm front will weaken as it moves through the region this afternoon into evening.

For NYC terminals, KHPN, and KSWF, forecast has MVFR to VFR into early evening, until around 00-01Z Thursday. However, within this timeframe is when showers redevelop and move in along with some embedded thunderstorms. Thunderstorms have timing of 21Z Wednesday to 01Z Thursday. These could temporarily lower conditions back down to MVFR to IFR for a short time. MVFR to LIFR clouds and fog redevelop tonight and last into Thursday morning. VFR forecast to return by late Thursday morning and into Thursday afternoon.

For KBDR, KISP and KGON, initial conditions vary from VFR to LIFR. For these terminals, showers are still forecast mainly in that 21Z to 03Z time window, but thunderstorms are a lower chance. Left PROB30s for thunder for KISP and KGON (00-03Z Thursday) and left out of KGON. For tonight, fog and low stratus are likely with LIFR forecast into Thursday morning.
Some improvement is expected late Thursday morning into afternoon to MVFR but not for KGON which remains LIFR to potentially IFR.

Winds will be generally southerly at or less than 10 kt through much of the TAF period. Winds become more SW 10-15 kt for Thursday afternoon. Some terminals will have more variable wind direction during times when wind speeds are at or less than 5 kts.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

KLGA Sound breeze with NE winds near 5-7 kts possible at times before 22Z this evening.

Amendments likely. Categories may vary between MVFR and LIFR at times tonight into Thursday morning.

Shower and thunderstorm timing could vary by 1-2 hours compared to TAF.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday: Lower clouds and fog scatter out with VFR by early afternoon for most terminals. KGON may take until late afternoon.
Showers/tstms with MVFR to IFR then possible in the late afternoon/early evening, some with locally strong winds from the NYC metros north/west. Otherwise winds are SW near 10-15 kt with gusts near 20 kt afternoon into evening before diminishing late at night.

Friday through Monday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Widespread dense fog across all but NY harbor. SOme improvement likely late this morning into afternoon, before likely return late this afternoon/eve for ocean waters, and likely southern and eastern bays of LI and central and eastern LI Sound.

Winds and seas remain below advisory levels today into Thursday afternoon, then with an increasing southwest flow ahead of a cold front Thursday gusts may be near 25 kt on the ocean waters, and possibly into the south shore bays, late in the day and Thursday evening. In addition, ocean seas build to 5 feet.
Behind the cold front gusts will fall below 25 kt, however ocean seas will remain elevated through Thursday night, and possibly into early Friday morning.

Winds and waves are expected to stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria this weekend through early next week.

HYDROLOGY
One quarter to three quarters of an inch rain, with locally higher amounts, is possible across the lower Hudson Valley, northeastern New Jersey, and New York City into this evening, and local nuisance and urban flooding will be possible. The probability for flash flooding is very marginal.

Locally heavy downpours are possible with any showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into the evening. However, the risk of flooding will be mitigated by the speed of any cells and lack of overall cell training.

There are no hydrologic concerns this weekend through early next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
The risk for the development of rip currents at the ocean beaches is moderate today and Thursday. Increasing SW flow late Thursday afternoon may result in an elevated risk for rip currents later in the day.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-340-345.
Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353.
Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ355.