Friday, October18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Park, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 6:11PM Friday October 18, 2019 8:26 PM EDT (00:26 UTC) Moonrise 9:24PMMoonset 11:40AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 744 Pm Edt Fri Oct 18 2019
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Chance of showers.
Tue night..S winds around 15 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Showers likely.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Chance of showers in the morning.
Wed night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ300 744 Pm Edt Fri Oct 18 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds across the area tonight into Saturday, then to the east Saturday night. Tropical storm nestor is then forecast to track well south of the region Sunday into Sunday night. Weak high pressure follows for Monday before a frontal system moves across the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. High pressure will then close out the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Park, NY
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location: 40.63, -73.67     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 190007
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
807 pm edt Fri oct 18 2019

Synopsis
High pressure builds across the area tonight into Saturday,
then offshore Saturday night. Tropical storm nestor is then
forecast to track well south of the region Sunday into Sunday
night. Weak high pressure follows for Monday before a frontal
system moves across the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. High
pressure will then close out the week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
With deep cyclonic flow continuing this evening, strato CU was
streaming into the zones, mainly across southern connecticut.

The flow will be weakening through 06z as a ridge builds to the
west. Gusty NW winds also remain with weakening cold advection.

Updated for sky conditions, and then temperatures, dew points,
and winds and gusts.

A progressive upper air pattern will feature a departing trough
along the east coast and a building ridge from the west.

Surface high pressure approaches tonight with diminishing
northerly winds. This combined with clear skies and dry air will
allow for good radiational cooling. A frost advisory remains up
for most of the lower hudson valley, interior southern ct, and
portions of interior NE nj. The western half of orange county ny
will be close to freezing, but there is less confidence for a
freeze warning versus a frost advisory at this time. Frost will
be more patchy across the pine barrens region of eastern long
island.

Lows will be in the 30s to around 40 outside of the nyc metro,
which will get down into the lower and mid 40s. These readings
are a few degrees below normal.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Sunday night
Both the upper ridge and surface high build across the area on
Saturday with light winds, clear skies, and highs around 60.

The latter of which is just a shade below normal.

Saturday night will feature another night of light winds. There
will an increase in high clouds late ahead of an upper trough
lifting NE across the mississippi valley. The latter of which
will steer tropical storm nestor off the carolina coast on
Sunday. Before then though, there could be another night of
frost across the interior and pine barrens region of eastern
long island.

For Sunday, nestor tracks well south and east of the region
with the forecast area on the northern fringe of the rain
shield. Rain chances are only 20 to 30 percent at this time,
highest across long island and the nyc metro. The cloud shield
is expected to encompass the entire area with temperatures a
shade cooler than on Saturday. Any rain should exit to the south
and east early Sunday evening.

Models are generally in good agreement with the track of the
low to the south. The 12z NAM though remains a northern outlier
at this time. For the latest official track and intensity
forecast, refer to the latest advisories from nhc.

Long term Monday through Friday
Weak high pressure at the surface will build in from
southeastern canada during this time frame, keeping the
forecast area dry Monday. With ridging aloft and increasing
heights, temperatures will be slightly warmer on Monday than
Sunday, just a couple of degrees above normal, in the lower to
middle 60s.

A weakening low pressure over the great lakes will send a warm
front north of the region Tuesday into early Tuesday night. The
associated cold front will quickly follow move Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. A weak area of low pressure may develop
along the front, which could help to enhance the precipitation
as the system becomes negatively tilted. However there are
timing differences in when this system becomes negatively
tilted, and thus uncertainty in where and when any heavier
precipitation falls.

High pressure builds in and dominates the weather pattern with
dry weather to close the week. Temperatures will be a slightly
above normal for Thursday and Friday as well.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
High pressure will build in from the west overnight, and settle
across the region Saturday.

Vfr. NW winds 10 to 15 kt will be diminishing through the
evening. Gusts up to 20 kt will be possible at the nyc metro
terminals until around 02z.

After 13z Saturday winds will gradually back to the west and
then southwest, remaining under 10 kt.

Outlook for 00z Sunday through Wednesday
Saturday through Monday MainlyVFR. Chance of MVFR or lower
midday Sunday into Monday coastal terminals.

Tuesday Chance of showers with MVFR or lower cond. Gusty
winds possible Tuesday evening and overnight.

Wednesday Vfr.

Marine
No changes at this time.

High pressure builds across the waters through Saturday and
then to the east Saturday night. Tropical storm nestor is
forecast to pass well south and east of the waters Sunday into
Sunday night. A strengthening NE flow ahead of the system could
potentially bring SCA conditions to the ocean waters Sunday
night.

Winds should remain below SCA criteria through Monday night.

However, there is a low chance of SCA seas lingering on the
ocean due to an easterly swell from nestor. Gusts of to 25 to
30 kt are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday as a complex
frontal system impacts the area. Winds diminish Wednesday.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the beginning of next
week. There is the potential for rainfall Tuesday into Tuesday
night. Exact rainfall amounts and potential impacts are
uncertain at this time.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off the
air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... Frost advisory from 3 am to 9 am edt Saturday for ctz005>008.

Ny... Frost advisory from 3 am to 9 am edt Saturday for nyz067>070.

Nj... Frost advisory from 3 am to 9 am edt Saturday for njz002-004-
103.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jp dw
near term... 19 dw
short term... Dw
long term... Jp
aviation... 19
marine... Jp 19 dw
hydrology... Jp dw
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 13 mi57 min N 12 G 19 52°F 61°F1015.3 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 18 mi57 min NW 16 G 21 53°F 32°F41°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 18 mi37 min NW 19 G 25 54°F 63°F3 ft1014.5 hPa42°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 19 mi57 min 52°F 63°F1014.8 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 21 mi57 min N 14 G 16 52°F 1014.6 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 21 mi57 min NNW 15 G 19 52°F 59°F1015.3 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 23 mi87 min NW 18 G 23 54°F 1 ft41°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 25 mi63 min 53°F 61°F1015 hPa
MHRN6 26 mi57 min NW 9.9 G 15
44069 31 mi57 min WNW 12 G 16 53°F 57°F43°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 37 mi37 min NW 21 G 25 55°F 62°F4 ft1013.5 hPa (+2.2)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi63 min NNW 6 G 8.9 51°F 61°F1012.9 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY6 mi36 minNW 1410.00 miMostly Cloudy52°F37°F59%1015.2 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY15 mi34 minNW 810.00 miOvercast52°F37°F59%1014.4 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY15 mi36 minNNW 1510.00 miPartly Cloudy52°F36°F55%1014.8 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY19 mi36 minN 010.00 miFair50°F36°F59%1015.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJFK

Wind History from JFK (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE19
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2 days agoS6SE4SE5S4SE6S6E4E5E5E8E8E9SE13SE13SE16
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Tide / Current Tables for East Rockaway, Long Island, New York
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East Rockaway
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:48 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:43 AM EDT     4.33 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 06:36 PM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.73.42.71.81.10.60.40.81.62.83.74.24.34.13.42.51.60.90.60.50.91.72.63.2

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:36 AM EDT     -0.62 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:02 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:04 AM EDT     0.86 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 12:11 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:59 PM EDT     -0.61 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 06:24 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:29 PM EDT     0.87 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0-0.3-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.4-00.20.30.60.90.60.1-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.20.20.30.50.80.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.