Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Park, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 7:47PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 1:14 PM EDT (17:14 UTC) Moonrise 10:31PMMoonset 10:46AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 1204 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
This afternoon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Wed night..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..W winds around 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1204 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will build over the region today. A warm front will move north of the area on Wednesday followed by a cold front passage late Thursday into Friday. Canadian high pressure to builds in for the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Park, NY
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location: 40.63, -73.67     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 201608
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1208 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will build over the region today. A warm front will
move north of the area on Wednesday followed by a cold front
passage late Thursday into Friday. Canadian high pressure to
build in for the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Just minor update to temperatures and dew points to reflect
current observation trends this afternoon. Otherwise, high
pressure will briefly build to the north across the region
today. While temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s to
around 90, northerly flow will keep dewpoints a few degrees
lower therefore, heat index values will be close to the actual
air temperature.

There is a low risk of rip current development at ocean beaches
today.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Wednesday night
A warm front will approach from the south overnight into Wednesday
morning ushering in a very humid airmass. Dewpoints will once again
rise into the lower 70s with southerly flow. A weak shortwave will
interact with the warm front as it lifts north, which could spark a
few morning showers and thunderstorms. Given the moist airmass, any
shower will be capable of heavy downpours.

The best chance for thunderstorms will be Wednesday afternoon as an
upper trough over the great lakes pushes a cold front towards the
region. Upper level jet support combined with mid level shortwave
energy will initiate convective development during the afternoon.

Forecast soundings showing >2000 j kg of CAPE into the afternoon
along with increasing shear with the incoming trough. With a
favorable storm environment, the storm prediction center is
maintaining a marginal risk over the region with the exception
of northern orange and putnam counties which has been upgraded
to a slight risk. Southwesterly flow will advect in precipitable
water of near 2 inches, therefore heavy downpours are likely in
any storm.

Temperatures will rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s. The
combination of heat and rising dewpoints will result in heat
indices between 95 and 99 for most locations with the exception
of eastern long island and southeastern coastal connecticut.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at ocean
beaches for Wednesday.

Long term Thursday through Monday
A cold front will slowly approach the area Wed night, and not
pass until some time Thu night or early fri. This will produce
somewhat swampy weather, with periods of showers and
thunderstorms, until the front passes offshore. Probabilities
for rain are therefore in the forecast Wed night through thu
night. Some minimal chances have been included for Fri with the
frontal timing uncertain this far out. The 00z GFS and ECMWF are
both mainly dry for the day however. A shot of much cooler air
settles in for the weekend. A backdoor cold front on Sat could
produce a sprinkle, but the probability was too low to include
in the forecast. Some marine stratus may attempt to build in by
late Sun or Mon as the flow veers to the east.

The nbm was used for temperatures for all but Sat night. With good
model agreement on the position of the canadian high, low
temperatures were adjusted significantly downward from the guidance
sat night.

Aviation 16z Tuesday through Saturday
High pressure will build in today before another frontal system
approaches tonight into Wednesday.

Vfr conditions are expected through much of the TAF period. Only
exceptions would be brief reductions to MVFR or possibly lower
in any showers thunderstorms or within any fog low stratus.

There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this
evening with higher chances overnight into early Wednesday.

With the uncertainty in timing and location for showers and
thunderstorms, these were mentioned mostly as vicinity.

Winds remain light under 10 kts through the TAF period,
initially more northerly before sea breeze circulations develop
in the afternoon with a switch to more s-se flow. Timing of
wind shifts for terminals may vary 1-2 hours from forecast.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 13 mi75 min NE 5.1 G 6 79°F 75°F1019.9 hPa (+0.0)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 18 mi45 min SE 3.9 G 5.8 77°F 75°F1019.1 hPa69°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 19 mi75 min 85°F 76°F1019.2 hPa (+0.0)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 21 mi75 min S 11 G 12 78°F 1019.2 hPa (+0.0)
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 21 mi75 min SE 6 G 7 80°F 77°F1019.7 hPa (+0.0)
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 25 mi81 min 84°F 78°F1019.3 hPa
MHRN6 26 mi75 min NNE 1.9 G 4.1
44069 31 mi75 min S 3.9 G 5.8 79°F 81°F66°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 37 mi85 min NE 5.8 G 7.8 76°F 76°F2 ft1019.3 hPa (+0.3)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi81 min Calm G 6 84°F 77°F1018.8 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY6 mi84 minS 710.00 miPartly Cloudy85°F68°F57%1019.5 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY15 mi82 minVar 410.00 miFair83°F60°F46%1019.5 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY15 mi84 minENE 710.00 miA Few Clouds84°F62°F48%1019.1 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY19 mi84 minVar 410.00 miFair85°F64°F51%1019.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJFK

Wind History from JFK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S10S13S17
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S10SW7W6W11W7SW6SW6W6W5W3N3NE4NE5NE8NE11NE9E4S7S10
1 day agoS7S10S13S15S16S11S7NW9N6E5CalmNE3SW3SE5W8SW5SW5SW4SW6S7SW10S7S8S11
2 days agoS7S7SE10SE9SE8SE8SE4E4CalmSE5SE4SE4S3S3SE5SE6S7CalmSE4S8S6SW6S8S8

Tide / Current Tables for East Rockaway, Long Island, New York
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East Rockaway
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:00 AM EDT     4.00 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:19 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:27 PM EDT     3.89 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:40 PM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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43.83.22.31.40.70.40.41.12.133.63.93.83.42.71.91.20.90.81.21.92.83.4

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:12 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:50 AM EDT     -0.61 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:17 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:10 AM EDT     0.86 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 10:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:21 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:10 PM EDT     -0.63 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:38 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:36 PM EDT     0.89 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-0.2-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.4-0.10.20.30.50.80.70.1-0.2-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.20.10.20.40.80.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.