Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Freeport, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A closed upper level low over the Ohio and TN valleys and Western Appalachians will slowly draw closer throughout the course of tonight. At the same time a high pressure ridge off the New England coast which has been holding will edge further off shore. This gradually paves the way for increased forcing to slowly work in from the WSW. An onshore E flow will continue through tonight. Look for PoPs to increase slowly from WSW to ENE, more so towards and after 06z. Increased convergence towards the frontal boundary nearby will result in an overall increase in shower coverage. Especially for western portions of the area where likely PoPs give way to categorically PoPs. Further east PoPs increase to chance closer 09z.
A mild night with cloud cover and an onshore flow results in above average temperatures with lows in the middle and upper 50s, to around 60 in the metro.

During Wednesday look for the steadiest rain to arrive for most of the area during the morning and a portion of the afternoon. What drives the vertical motion leading to more enhanced shower / rain activity will be increased warm advection at 850 mb. Further east and northeast more widespread and consistent rain will arrive into the afternoon and into Wednesday evening. There do remain some timing difference among the various HRRR members and high res guidance. BUFKIT soundings are not very suggestive of thunder for the most part early on, with only the slightest hint of elevated instability. Showalter indices approach zero late in the day and perhaps this is the greatest chance at seeing some quasi-embedded convective elements in the precip shield. Thus, carried only slight chance thunder mainly for the southern 2/3rds of the area into Wednesday and Wednesday night.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
During Wednesday night the more widespread rain / shower activity should decrease in coverage for the most part. But with the upper level portion of the disturbance moving slowly and any vorticity becoming concentric with PVA decreasing look for shower activity coverage overall to decrease, especially later at night. The surface low should continue to slowly weaken in response to the upper level trough deamplifying. With cloud cover and a moist SE to E low level flow continuing temperatures will remain elevated with lows once again in the upper half of the 50s to around 60.

On Thursday clouds linger with the remnants of the sfc low remaining to the immediate south. With the lack of a true forcing mechanism look for just a chance of scattered to isolated shower activity.
Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm or two. The day however does not appear to be a washout with an overall decrease in shower activity from the previous 24 hours. Temperatures with the onshore flow continuing will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s, near normal for this time of year.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Key Points:

*An unsettled weather regime likely continues through the upcoming weekend, potentially next Monday.

*It will not be a washout Friday and Saturday despite chances for showers (possibly a thunderstorm each afternoon and evening).

*Diurnally driven isolated to scattered showers remain possible Sunday and Monday afternoon.

*Temperatures will mainly run above normal through early next week.

A blocky synoptic pattern will continue through early next week.
The upper trough/upper low that impacts the area midweek will continue to weaken as it slides across the northeast Thursday night.
Another upper low and associated trough over the Northern Plains will then gradually slide eastward towards the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday and then move across New England late this weekend.
Surface low pressure over the Northern Plains on Friday will send a warm front across the area. Shortwave energy associated with the front is weak and dampened out by ridging over the eastern seaboard.
Have largely capped PoPs off at chance with potential of showers mainly Friday afternoon and evening. Some CAPE may be available for a slight chance of thunder. Low pressure weakens as it moves towards the region this weekend due to the system becoming vertically stacked. The associated cold front will likely move across the region late Saturday into Saturday night. This will bring additional chances for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms as probabilities for SBCAPE to exceed 500 J/kg are higher in the NBM.
The highest probabilities for precip and thunder currently exist north and west of the NYC metro.

The lingering upper low and surface system should push offshore Sunday into early next week. Cyclonic flow and potential of a lingering cold pool aloft may support diurnally driven isolated to scattered showers Sunday and Monday afternoons. The upper low and trough may linger offshore next Tuesday with ridging building just to our west. Given a consensus of building heights aloft, have kept the forecast dry for next Tuesday and went slightly lower than the NBM PoPs.

Temperatures will be in the upper 70s to around 80 away from the immediate coast, with low to middle 70s along the coast, Friday and Saturday. Westerly flow on Sunday should allow the entire area to reach the middle and upper 70s. Temperatures trend a bit cooler early next week, but still may remain above normal, especially on Monday.

AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A weak frontal boundary remains nearly stationary into tonight near the NYC metro terminals. Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure approaches from the south.

VFR or MVFR to start. Rain showers continue to overspread the area especially across the NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals this afternoon into start of this evening with MVFR chances increasing, Conditions deteriorate to IFR tonight for these areas. To the east, it should take a bit longer for rain to move in and see conditions fall to MVFR. By tonight however, IFR or lower is expected around or after midnight and continue into much if not all of Wednesday.

Winds through the TAF period are around 10 kts or less through tonight, then 10-15kt on Wednesday. Wind direction will generally be from the E to ESE.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

MVFR and IFR timing could be a few hours off from TAF.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Wednesday and Wednesday night: Low stratus/fog with IFR conditions at times. Periods of rain. Slight chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. E-SE winds G20kt possible on Wednesday afternoon into early evening.

Thursday: MVFR possible with a chance of showers.

Friday and Saturday: Mainly VFR, chance of MVFR and showers.
Slight chance of thunderstorms afternoon into early evening.

Sunday...Mainly VFR. Chance of an MVFR shower.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub advisory conditions continue through tonight. However, ocean seas begin to build during Wednesday with small craft conditions developing from west to east across the ocean waters along with gusts for portions of the ocean gusting to 25 kt. Ocean seas will range primarily from 5 to 6 feet with small craft seas likely lingering through the day Thursday.

Conditions will be below SCA levels by Thursday night, and remain so into the upcoming weekend with a relatively weak pressure gradient over the waters.

HYDROLOGY
There are no concerns at this time regarding hydrologic impacts from rainfall tonight through Thursday with around 1 inch of rainfall expected across western and southwestern portions of the area. Lower rainfall totals are expected across the remainder of the area.

There are also no hydrologic concerns Thursday night through early next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ353-355.