Monday, November30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hewlett, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 4:30PM Monday November 30, 2020 12:30 PM EST (17:30 UTC) Moonrise 5:48PMMoonset 8:05AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 541 Am Est Mon Nov 30 2020
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
Today..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt late this morning and afternoon. Seas around 3 ft, building to 8 to 11 ft. Chance of showers early this morning. Showers late this morning, then rain and slight chance of tstms this afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, becoming sw around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 9 to 13 ft, subsiding to 8 to 11 ft after midnight. Showers likely in the evening.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Chance of showers in the morning.
Tue night..W winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Wed night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers. Winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 541 Am Est Mon Nov 30 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A deepening area of low pressure will approach from the southwest today before passing west of the waters this evening. The low will meander across upstate new york on Tuesday before gradually lifting north into southeast canada on Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure builds across the middle atlantic on Thursday. The next frontal system may impact the region Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hewlett, NY
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location: 40.64, -73.7     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 301647 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1147 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

SYNOPSIS. A deepening area of low pressure will approach from the southwest today before passing west of the area this evening. The low will meander across upstate New York on Tuesday before gradually lifting north into southeast Canada on Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure builds across the Middle Atlantic on Thursday. The next frontal system may impact the region Friday with potential for another wave of low pressure this weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. A large area of low pressure entering western PA this morning will deepen as it lifts north today, eventually passing west of the region this evening.

The primary threat with this system continues to be the potential for strong gusty winds. Have upgraded to high wind warning for Suffolk County, and expanded winds advisory for all of CT, NYC and coastal NJ, based on strong low level jet crossing the area between 18-00Z, with 50-70 kt winds at 925 mb.

Always a question of how much of the higher winds will be able to mix down to the surface, with model soundings indicating that the lowest 2000 ft of the atmosphere remains inverted through early afternoon. With upstream obs showing peak gusts of 35 to 40 kt into southern and central NJ this morning, and SE llj strengthening into the region this aft, felt prudent to expand wind advisory for coastal plain for 50 mph gusts likely. With core of jet strengthens as it moves over Suffolk County late this afternoon with potential for 60 mph gusts likely this afternoon.

In terms of precipitation, overrunning moderate to locally heavy rain will continue across the area into early afternoon, with warm front approaching mid afternoon and lifting north into early this evening. Potential for convection (currently across DelMarVa) to develop mid afternoon with warm frontal approach and continue into this evening with warm frontal passage/pre- frontal trough. Best points of focus for convection appear to be with the warm front mid to late afternoon, and then potentially with a broken line approaching along the pre-frontal trough this evening. High shear, strong veering wind profile, and marginal elevated instability will pose a localized threat for strong to damaging winds with any stronger convection, and even a brief tornado. SPC continues to include the entire area in a Marginal Risk of severe weather.

Peak rainfall rates have generally been 1/4: to 1/2" per hour, which should mitigate any hydrologic issues to minor urban and poor drainage.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. Rain and wind both come to an end quickly this evening as the low level jet moves east and a dry slot develops across the region. After late day highs in the 60s, overnight lows will range from the mid 40s well north and west of NYC to the low to mid 50s across far eastern Connecticut and Long Island. These temperatures are around 15 degrees above normal for the last day of November.

Both the surface and upper lows will meander over upstate New York on Tuesday. In addition to plenty of cloud cover, the combination of falling heights and the main lobe of vorticity crossing the area should be enough to spark scattered showers. While the better rain chances are likely across the interior, can't rule out a shower anywhere, and continued with chance PoPs.

Temperatures on Tuesday will remain nearly steady during the day, rising only a few degrees after daybreak.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. The energy aloft moves east of the area Tuesday evening as the upper low shifts farther north. The surface low follow as it becomes vertically stacked with the upper low. The system will only slowly lift across southeast Canada on Wednesday, leaving cyclonic flow aloft. Dry conditions are forecast on Wednesday, but there should be at least a scattered stratocu deck which could become broken at times. The upper cyclone lifts further north and east Wednesday night into Thursday with height rises occurring aloft and high pressure building across the Middle Atlantic.

Forecast confidence is very low Friday into next weekend. The deterministic and ensemble runs are showing little run-to-run consistency. The main feature that is another upper low and packet of vorticity energy that dives out of Central Canada on Tuesday. This system should eventually move around the base of the overall mean trough Wednesday into Thursday. The challenge then becomes how much energy interacts with the remaining upper cyclone remaining over southeast Canada at the end of the week. The 12z 11/28 runs had another rapidly deepening low pressure that tracks inland, similar to the one that will occur early this week. The 12z 11/29 runs are much different with the GFS and CMC showing more of a frontal system passage Friday or early next weekend. The ECMWF on the other hand still indicates potential for a more significant low pressure over the Middle Atlantic. The ensembles of the EPS and GEFS show a wide range of solutions as well, and suspect this will continue for a few days as the models resolve the overall anomalous large scale pattern of North America. Something to watch for now and will leave a low chance PoP in the forecast Friday into the weekend.

Temperatures will be warmest on Tuesday, especially in the morning before cooler air filters in as the upper low settles over the northeast. Wednesday looks like the coldest day with temperatures in the 40s, then temperatures should get a few degrees above normal for the end of the week

AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Deepening low pres will reach wrn PA by 18Z and Lake Ontario by 00Z. The low will then meander near the lake til at least 18Z Tue.

Conditions will deteriorate today as rain overspreads the region from the sw and winds increase. Winds are expected to ramp up aft 15Z, peak in the 18-00Z time frame, then diminish gradually overnight. There could be some peak gusts around 50kt, particularly east of the NYC arpts. IFR and lower can be expected in hvy rain today, before improving to VFR tngt.

LLWS with winds 70+ kt at 2000 ft by this aftn.

There is a low chance for embedded tstms this aftn and early eve with the heaviest rain. The prob is too low to include in the TAFs however.

Mainly VFR expected on Tue attm. There is a chance that cigs drop to MVFR in any shwrs.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

The EWR, JFK and LGA haze forecast for today is MODERATE (YELLOW). Amendments can be expected today for changing vis and cigs. Peak gusts may be higher by 5-10kt than those in the TAFs, especially JFK and LGA.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

Tuesday. MVFR possible with sct showers. S-SW winds G15-20kt inland and 20-25kt NYC metros/coast. Wednesday. VFR. W/SW winds G20kt. Thursday. VFR. Friday. Mainly VFR. MVFR possible with any scattered showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. A Gale Warning remains in effect on all waters into this evening as an approaching area of low pressure will result in gusts to 40-45 kt on the ocean and 35-40 kt elsewhere. In addition, seas will build to 10-14 ft on the ocean this afternoon, and 3-6 ft across the central and eastern Long Island Sound. While winds will fall below gale force tonight, a relatively strong pressure gradient will remain in place Tuesday and Tuesday night, resulting in SCA conditions.

Winds will subside on the non-ocean waters on Wednesday, although SCA winds will likely continue on the ocean. In addition, seas will remain elevated Wednesday into Wednesday night before gradually falling below 5 ft during the day on Thursday. Sub-SCA conditions then return for the end of the week.

HYDROLOGY. 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected across the area today, with locally higher amounts possible. Localized minor urban flooding is possible during this afternoon during the periods of heaviest rainfall.

No hydrologic impacts are forecast at this time from Tuesday through next weekend.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Beach erosion with localized dune erosion is likely along the oceanfront this afternoon through Tuesday due to large breaking waves.

The strongest winds and highest surge today will occur generally closest to low tide. Best potential of coincidence of residual surge and high tide and wave action to result in localized minor coastal impacts appears to be across SE CT. The south shore bays of W LI may see some localized issues as well due to southerly gale winds and tidal piling. A statements may have to be issued this afternoon.

The southerly flow weakens considerably tonight. There may still be some tidal piling into Tuesday morning, and the guidance does indicate some minor flooding is possible. After Tuesday morning high tide, no coastal flooding is anticipated through the middle of the week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>012. NY . High Wind Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ078>081. Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ071>075-176- 178. Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ177-179. NJ . Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NJZ006-104-106- 108. MARINE . Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ330-335-338-340-345- 350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . FEB/DS NEAR TERM . FEB/NV SHORT TERM . FEB LONG TERM . DS AVIATION . MARINE . FEB/DS HYDROLOGY . FEB/DS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 12 mi42 min S 17 G 32 59°F 1001.5 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 17 mi30 min SE 25 G 45 58°F 58°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 17 mi42 min 59°F 54°F1000.9 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 19 mi30 min SE 29 G 41 55°F1000.1 hPa (-7.3)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 19 mi42 min SE 38 G 45 59°F 1000.1 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 20 mi42 min SSE 31 G 40 59°F 1001.1 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 24 mi42 min 59°F 53°F999.7 hPa
MHRN6 24 mi42 min SE 27 G 40
44069 33 mi45 min SE 18 G 23 55°F 55°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 39 mi30 min SSE 33 G 43 56°F1001.6 hPa (-6.6)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi42 min ESE 15 G 23 57°F 52°F1004.2 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY4 mi39 minSE 23 G 332.00 miRain Fog/Mist and Windy59°F59°F100%1001.7 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY14 mi39 minSE 25 G 412.50 miRain and Windy61°F55°F84%1000.6 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY17 mi37 minSE 22 G 312.50 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy59°F55°F90%1002.9 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY17 mi39 minVar 6 G 251.00 miRain Fog/Mist59°F57°F93%1000.5 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ24 mi39 minSSE 19 G 341.75 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy60°F57°F90%999.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJFK

Wind History from JFK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9SW10S9S6S4S6S7SW9SW12SW7SW4S5S5S8SE6SE7E9E11E12E14
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1 day agoW9W12NW15NW12N13N7NW14NW9NW13NW11NW6NW8NW6W4W4SW6SW8W8W6W8SW9SW8SW5SW4
2 days agoSW9SW11SW9S7SW6W7W10W9NW6NW8NW6NW7NW5N3N3CalmW3SW4CalmCalmSW4SW6SW10W9

Tide / Current Tables for Woodmere, Brosewere Bay, Long Island, New York
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Woodmere
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:07 AM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:32 AM EST     Full Moon
Mon -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:05 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:01 AM EST     4.42 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:55 PM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 04:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:29 PM EST     3.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.300.31.22.43.44.14.44.23.52.51.60.80.2-00.41.32.33.13.63.63.12.3

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:23 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:32 AM EST     Full Moon
Mon -- 05:32 AM EST     0.92 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:06 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:16 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:42 AM EST     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:26 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 04:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:55 PM EST     0.97 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:43 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.4-0.10.10.40.80.90.40.1-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.5-0.10.10.30.710.70.2-0.1-0.3-0.5

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.