Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elizabeth, NJ

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
It will be the last nice weather day for awhile as a high pressure ridges down across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast into this afternoon. The pressure gradient finally relaxes as a result as the gusty breezes from the previous couple of days come to an end. More in the way of sunshine is anticipated during this morning in comparison to later in the day. Scattered to broken cloud cover should prevail going through the day. Temperatures overall should average a few degrees below normal, but all in all a fairly good spring day.

Clouds gradually increase through tonight. The latest NWP guidance is slower with the progression of mid level moisture into the region during tonight compared to previous NWP model iterations. There have been hints that the lower part of the column may moisten up enough where a few light showers / sprinkles may develop get closer to midnight. Some of the higher resolution model reflectivity progs have been suggestive of this. Have doubts as to whether the depth of the lower level moisture would be sufficient to produce droplets big enough to descend to the surface. Thus, have kept all of the evening dry, with PoPs increasing late at night and into Wed AM from WSW to ENE. Temperatures should fall close to the seasonal averages with night time lows mainly in the lower and middle 50s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A difficult forecast for Wednesday with respect to how far east any organized rain gets. The NWP guidance has timing differences with regard to the progression of the arrival of the leading edge of organized stratiform rain in advance of an old warm / occluded frontal boundary. The timing differences stem mainly from varying amounts of dry air in the mid levels that needs to be overcome.
Forecast soundings indicate a good deal of mid level dry air and the questions is how long will it take for the column to moisten sufficiently to develop the steadier rainfall. For now have taken more of a consensus / middle of the road approach and steadily raise PoPs through the day from SW to NE. With an onshore flow steadily increasing into the afternoon look for winds closer to the coast to gust during the afternoon and evening. With the onshore winds and clouds temperatures should average at least 10, maybe as much as 15 degrees below average with mainly upper 50s for daytime max temperatures.

For Wednesday night carry likely to categorical PoPs. A coastal low begins to develop into early Thursday morning. This should focus a surge of mid level warm advection into the region with a LLJ out of the east at around 30 kt. This will be the main forcing function of the steadier rainfall that arrives late Wed night / early Thu morning. This steadier rain will fall through at least the first half of the day, and perhaps carry into a portion of the afternoon.
With the clouds, rain, and wind temperatures will remain well below normal into Thursday. Max temperatures will in all likelihood not get out of the 50s region wide. Minimum temperatures Wed night will average close to the seasonal averages with a cool onshore wind. For rainfall totals and more detailed hydrology information see the Hydrology section.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
The forecast guidance remains rather consistent from previous forecasts as a developing coastal low Wednesday night tracks northeast of the region Thursday night through Friday night and remains over the Canadian Maritimes Saturday into Sunday. Shower chances taper off Thursday night as the low departs. However, chances of showers remain through Saturday as a closed upper low and trough remain over the northeast. The upper trough weakening Saturday night into Sunday as heights slowly rise. As a result the area will likely be dry. Additional energy tracks through the near zonal flow and into the region Monday into Monday night, and may brings a few showers to the area for Memorial Day. The NBM guidance was used through the extended period. And blended in the 90th percentile for winds and gusts Thursday night into Friday as the low departs to the northeast. Temperatures will be near or just below normal Thursday night through Sunday, and return to near normal levels for Memorial Day.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Weakening low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will track slowly southeast out into the western Atlantic, while weak high pressure builds in from the west through today. The high moves east while a frontal system approaches to the southwest tonight.

VFR until late tonight, with MVFR cigs developing east of the NYC terminals 04Z to 06Z.

N/NW wind around 10kt overnight and through most of today, weakening late day and becoming NE. The flow could weaken enough for seabreeze development, mainly at KJFK, and possibly KISP and KLGA. Therefore, lower confidence in wind direction at the coastal terminals this afternoon. Winds become easterly by ate Tuesday evening.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Chance of an afternoon seabreeze, mainly at KJFK, but low confidence at this time.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Late Tuesday Night: MVFR developing from east to west.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower with rain developing from west to east through the day. E wind gusts up to 20kt, increasing to 20-25kt at night.

Thursday: MVFR or lower with rain. E winds backing to the NE late in the day with gusts up to 30kt. Wind diminishing at night and becoming N.

Friday: MVFR or lower with a chance of showers.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR in showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub advisory conditions return to the ocean waters today into tonight with diminishing winds with a weak pressure gradient getting briefly established through the first half of Tuesday night. Towards Wednesday morning an easterly flow quickly ramps up, especially into the late day and evening as small craft conditions develop. Small craft conditions prevail Wednesday night across all waters as a coastal low begins to develop, with a period of gale force winds a possibility into the day Thursday out on the ocean on a stronger east to northeasterly fetch.

Small craft conditions will likely be on-going across the forecast waters Thursday evening, with gusts falling below 25kt by late Thursday night. However, ocean seas will remain elevated at SCA levels through most of Friday. Thereafter, winds and seas will remain below advisory levels Friday night through Sunday night.

HYDROLOGY
Average rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches is expected across the CWA for mid week (mainly Wednesday through Thursday), with additional quarter inch amounts across SE CT and lighter amounts elsewhere into Thursday night. At this time rainfall rates are not expected to exceed a half inch per hour with more of a stratiform rain with periods of mainly moderate intensity with colder rain processes. At this time more of a nuisance urban poor drainage type flooding remains a possibility late Wed night into Thursday. Some streams and rivers across mainly CT basins may rise some, but should not result in flooding as the rain should fall over a long enough duration. There are no hydrologic concerns Friday into the beginning of next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A strengthening/persistent E-NE flow Wednesday through Thursday may result in minor coastal flooding mid to late week. The latest information indicates that water levels should remain below minor coastal flood benchmarks during time of high tide late Wednesday and early Thursday. Based on the latest data the two high tides of most concern are the Thursday afternoon / evening and the late Friday afternoon / evening cycles. The second of these may result in only localized minor flooding in and around the tidal waterways of NE NJ and Staten Island, and along the south shore bays of Nassau County despite being higher astronomically. The first round should result in more widespread minor flooding due to a stronger and more onshore wind component, with departures 2.0 to 2.5 ft, as winds appear more likely to remain mainly NE through most of the day Thursday before backing to N Thursday into Thursday night.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.