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FXUS65 KBOU 282105 AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 205 PM MST Tue Nov 28 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- Pockets of elevated/locally critical fire weather conditions Wednesday in the eastern plains.

- Good chance for light snow in the mountains late Thursday into Friday. Scattered light snow showers in the mountains this weekend.

- Cooler temperatures Thursday through the weekend.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 149 PM MST Tue Nov 28 2023

The transient ridging pattern in place today will push east tomorrow, leaving us under mostly zonal flow aloft and keeping temperatures relatively steady. Forecast is close to persistence as a result, but did make adjustments around the Denver metro (warmer) and South Platte River Valley (colder) based on the latest snow cover trends. Expect another chilly morning with a few single digits in Weld and Morgan Counties, teens across most of the plains, and 20's for the Denver metro. There will be some high clouds around, but not completely overcast. Winds will become increasingly southwesterly in advance of a shortwave trough, with some locally breezy conditions mixing down in the plains in the afternoon. With continued low humidity, that will lead to pockets of elevated fire weather conditions in Washington and Lincoln Counties in particular where gusts to 30 mph will be possible and snow cover generally lacking. Localized Red Flag conditions wouldn't be out of the question in the eastern plains, but these would not be persistent nor widespread enough to warrant any headlines.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 149 PM MST Tue Nov 28 2023

An upper level trough moves through the region Thursday. However, ensemble guidance displays good agreement that it positions south of the state, keeping Colorado out of the better moisture and ascent.
Weak ascent and moisture will be around the high country as the system passes. Model cross-sections aren't too impressive for moisture, so any showers will be scattered in coverage and low chance (< 20%) in the mountains. A cold front moves through early Thursday morning bringing cooler air with highs in the 30s. The lower elevations will remain dry.

A higher chance for scattered snow showers comes to the high country Friday through the weekend, as a few additional upper level troughs move through Colorado. Model cross sections show increasing and deepening moisture overnight into Friday. With weak ascent, this will support scattered snow showers across the high country.
Accumulations are expected to be light.

A few disturbances move through the NW flow aloft this weekend bringing scattered snow showers for the high country each day. The main trough axis finally pushes through Sunday into Monday followed by the onset of more enhanced NW flow aloft. This will bring breezy conditions across the mountains/foothills and east plains Sun/Mon.
Early next week, expect temperatures to moderate back to normal highs, potentially above normal across the plains by mid-week.



AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1010 AM MST Tue Nov 28 2023

VFR conditions will prevail for all terminals through the TAF period, with a few high clouds at/above FL180. Winds for the remainder of the day will be light, with potentially variable directions over the next few hours before E/SE winds become more established shortly after midday. Expect a return to southerly/southwesterly drainage flow this evening, which may exceed 10 kts at times.

BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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