Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nunn, CO

DISCUSSION /Through Monday/
Issued at 1238 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the I-25 Corridor and eastern plains, with supercells capable of producing large to giant hail, damaging outflow winds, and a few tornadoes. Strong southwest flow aloft is currently over Colorado, with a surface low pressure located in southwestern Kansas, allowing easterly winds to advect moisture into the plains (dewpoint temperatures already reaching up to the 50s). MLCAPE values are expected to reach up to 1500-2000 J/kg (better instability east of Denver metro) this afternoon, with 0-6 Km bulk shear up to 50 kts and mid-level lapse rates >8.0 dg C/Km. This will support intense updrafts in supercells, and promote hail sizes up to 2" and damaging outflow winds for the I-25 corridor.
Guidance is in good agreement of storms initiating between 1-3 PM along the I-25 Corridor and trekking east through the afternoon.
However, current ACARS soundings still show a capped environment due to early morning cloud cover. This could keep any severe threat out of the metro early this afternoon. We will continue to watch to see if the cap can erode in the next few hours.

As supercells travel east out of the metro this afternoon, they will be entering an environment more favorable for 3"+ hail and a few tornadoes, as evident in modeled soundings showing better instability and curved hodographs. Areas along and around the I-70 corridor east of the metro have the best chance to see this, where SPC has now upgraded us to an Enhanced risk (3/5) through this evening. As storms continue east this evening, they should organize into a line, where damaging outflow winds will be the main threat.
Expect storms to be completely out of the forecast area by 9 PM.

Hot temperatures return to the forecast on Tuesday as strong southwest flow aloft promotes downsloping winds and thus compressional heating. Highs are expected to be in the mid-90s, with DIA having the chance to break the daily high record (Record: 95 in 2018; Forecast: 93). With widespread breezy winds and a dry airmass over the region, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible across the plains (See Fire Weather Discussion). Isolated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon across the eastern plains, however little precipitation is expected to reach the ground, given LCLs up to 10K-11K ft AGL and fast storm motions.
However, we could have strong outflow wind gusts, given DCAPE values expected to get up to 1500 J/kg. The best chance for the strongest winds will be the far northeastern plains where SPC has put us in a marginal risk (1/5) for severe thunderstorms.

A weak cold front overnight Tuesday, will slightly lower temperatures for Wednesday, but still expect highs in the high 80s to low 90s across the plains. A 500-mb jet will be over Colorado, with cross barrier flow of 40-50 kts, resulting in breezy winds across the high terrain. Wind prone areas along the I-25 corridor will likely see some gusty winds throughout the day Wednesday, which could bring another round of elevated to critical fire weather conditions.

Zonal flow aloft is expected Thursday and into the weekend as Colorado will be in between an upper level ridge in southern United States and a closed low over northern U.S. and Canada. This will result in relatively quiet conditions across the forecast area, with temperatures generally between 80s to low 90s. Next chance for precipitation looks to be Saturday ahead of an upper level trough.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday/
Issued at 1218 AM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Outflow easterly winds have pushed back across KDEN to start this TAF period, and with that comes the threat of patchy fog. We'll add VCFG to the TAF til about 14Z as we'll likely be on the edge of low level stratus deck, narrow T/Td spreads, and lack of a pure S-SW drainage wind.

The S-SW winds should eventually develop toward 14Z-15Z, taking any fog/stratus threat with it. Then a much drier and hotter airmass will spread in with increasing SW winds, now expected closer to 17Z at KDEN, a bit sooner at KAPA, but a good 3-4 hours later at KBJC. Wind speeds should increase to around 20-22kts with G30-32kts. We are also more concerned about virga and in this setup it won't take much to get a stronger (most likely SSW direction) outflow gust to 40-45+ kts. We have added a TEMPO to address the stronger wind potential. Winds are then expected to diminish around 02Z. A weak frontal push is expected toward 06Z Wednesday with a light wind shift or VRB winds thereafter.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1238 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday across the plains. Winds could gust up to 30 to 40 mph, with relative humidity values dropping to single digits each afternoon. Recent feedback about fuels status shows that vegetation across the plains are susceptible to combustion, so have opted in to upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning. Localized fire weather conditions remain possible on Thursday and Friday due to expected low relative humidity values.
However, winds will be the limiting factor as guidance indicates more localized nature of stronger winds.

BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ240>251.