Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Taylorsville, UT

.SHORT TERM (Through 00Z Tuesday/5PM Monday)...Persistent high pressure remains in place over Utah and southwest Wyoming this morning in northerly flow as an upper low exits the Desert Southwest. Across much of the area this is resulting in continued dry and somewhat mild conditions that will persist for much of the weekend. However, in prone northern Utah valley locations strong inversions remain in place resulting in diminished air quality and reductions in visibility. This is especially true for the Great Salt Lake and areas surrounding it that are seeing dense fog. Per webcams and satellite imagery, have seen little change in the coverage of this fog overnight, so have kept the going Dense Fog Advisory in place with no changes. Will see improvement in the foggy conditions during the morning with some help from the sun.

As the Desert Southwest low continues its exit, the ridge will start to pivot as a broad storm system moves onshore along the Pacific Northwest coast this afternoon. Guidance has come into agreement that this system will eventually impact Utah and southwest Wyoming in two parts, finally bringing an end to the smog invasion in the northern Utah valleys. The first piece of this system is expected to graze northern Utah Saturday night into Sunday morning, bringing an initial front through northern and central Utah and perhaps a few showers near the Utah/Idaho border.
This will result in some improvement in inversion conditions, but there is a high chance we will not fully mix out until the arrival of the main part of the system Sunday night into Monday, with most guidance showing 700mb temperatures dropping into the -11C to -13C range. Though this trough is ripe with cold air, it looks to be severely lacking in moisture, which will keep precipitation light and limited in coverage. Latest suite of models is trending, if anything, downward with the already low precip totals with the system.

.LONG TERM (After 00z Tuesday/5PM Monday)...Cold and dry conditions will be in place later Monday, as valley inversions will have been mixed out. The storm system bringing the colder conditions will have tracked to the east, with an upstream ridge to track into southwest Wyoming and Utah Tuesday and Wednesday. There is good model agreement on this ridge being more transient that the last. Valley inversions will establish, but likely not stay established long, as another storm system could track in around Thursday.

There is good model and ensemble agreement on a series of storm systems to track in from the west. A ridge will track across southwest Wyoming Tuesday and Wednesday, with dry conditions each day and slight warming from Tuesday to Wednesday. Haze will increase, but inversions will likely mix as a storm system tracks in from the west Thursday. Roughly 15% of ensemble members, largely from the CMCE, keep ridging established over the western U.S. much of the week, which would bring extended valley inversion conditions.
The other roughly 85% of members bring an atmospheric river event into northern California and southern Oregon Wednesday. A mild west to southwest flow would increase Thursday as moisture advects into southwest Wyoming and Utah. Valley rain and snow and mountain snow would likely start ahead of the cold front and continue into Friday.
Confidence in details is low, but mountain snow accumulation would likely be relatively light.

Models and ensembles with the atmospheric river event bring a similar trough into the western U.S. into the weekend, while the drier, largely CMCE solution, keeps ridging over the western U.S.

AVIATION
KSLC...LIFR conditions with freezing fog will gradually improve through the morning, with MVFR conditions and haze likely after around 19Z. Winds will largely be light and variable, with prevailing winds most likely from the southeast through the morning and northwest much of the afternoon. MVFR conditions with haze will likely transition to IFR or LIFR conditions with freezing fog by around 01Z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Freezing fog, primarily near the Great Salt Lake, will bring lIFR conditions much of the morning. Freezing fog will lift, with IFR or MVFR conditions with haze for the urban corridor of northern Utah. Freezing fog with LIFR conditions is likely around 01Z. Elsewhere, mostly clear conditions with light winds will continue, with scattered or broken clouds tracking into southwest Wyoming and northern Utah around 03Z.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for UTZ102>105.

WY...None.