Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Taylorsville, UT

DISCUSSION
Latest trends in the model data indicate a more progressive cold front with a shorter lived precipitation band associated with it. Guidance has trended down the QPF totals dramatically over the last 24 hours. QPF totals across the northern mountains, where the highest totals will be, are between 0.3 and 0.65 inches (25th-75th percentile). With a 10:1 ratio we get roughly 3 to 6 inches across the highest terrain. Valleys are looking more like 0.05 to 0.20 which would not translate to much in the way of snow, even with a quick transition to snow, given the warm surface temperatures. Soil temperatures are currently in the 50s with 60s across paved surfaces.

All of that being said, the dynamics are still pretty impressive with this cold front so a quick burst of snow along and behind the front is still expected which could briefly drop visibilities and under the heaviest bands could lead to a slush up on roads.
Timing of the front has it moving through the Wasatch front between 12pm-3pm and through Cedar City 8pm-10pm.

Northerly gap winds will develop behind the front across lower Washington county. So areas such as Black Ridge Canyon and west of St. George will see gusty northerly winds picking up just before midnight and persisting through the morning hours. Winds aloft at 700mb are only ~15-25 mph so this will limit the surface winds, but a few isolated areas could approach 58 mph gusts.

The area of greatest confidence will be the very cold airmass (for this time of year) that will filter into the entire area by Friday morning. Most locations above 3000 feet elevation will see freezing temperatures. In fact, most locations will see a hard freeze with temperatures dipping into the 20s and some areas into the teens. This will be enough to damage early season plants and cause damage to exposed pipes that have already been de- winterized. Consider protecting any exposed plants or pipes.
Saturday morning will also be very cold with more widespread freezing temperatures.

Temperatures will quickly rebound through the weekend with temperatures approaching the upper 70s by Monday as a ridge builds into the Great Basin. This ridge will keep conditions dry and stable through early next week. Another cutoff low will be moving into the west by midweek, but details with these cutoff lows remain fuzzy given the uncertain track and timing of these types of systems.



AVIATION
KSLC...South to southwest winds will likely prevail through the night, although nearby passing rain showers will be capable of bringing periods of variable winds. Winds are then expected to shift to northerly behind a cold front which is expected to arrive between 14-15z. While rain showers may fill in shortly behind the cold front, the best window for any precipitation will be between 18-21z when it will be cold enough for precipitation to transition from rain to snow. As such, expect a brief period of IFR to low-end MVFR (with a 15% chance of LIFR) conditions with snow during that window. Otherwise, CIGS below 7kft AGL will be likely late morning through midafternoon. By late afternoon into the evening, expect a gradual clearing trend as precipitation ends.


REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Southwest winds will prevail across Utah and southwest Wyoming before turning more northerly behind a cold front. This cold front is expected to arrive at KLGU around 11z, KSLC around 15-16z, KPVU around 17-18z, and KCDC around 01-02z. Ahead of the front, occasional rain showers can be expected across northern Utah overnight. Behind the front, precipitation is expected to fill in for a few hours. Snow levels will eventually fall as low as 4kft MSL, allowing precipitation to transition from rain to snow at most terminals. As such, expect a brief period of IFR to low-end MVFR (with a 15-20% chance of LIFR) conditions with snow during that window. Otherwise, low CIGS will result in mountain obscurations near the frontal precipitation band.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...Freeze Warning from 8 PM Thursday to noon MDT Friday for UTZ102>106-114>116-118>122-129-130.

Freeze Warning from 8 PM Friday to noon MDT Saturday for UTZ102>106-114>116-118>122-129-130.

High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for UTZ123.

WY...None.