Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Great River, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:26PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 8:26 AM EST (13:26 UTC) Moonrise 4:35PMMoonset 6:13AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 413 Am Est Tue Dec 10 2019
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft this morning, then 1 ft or less. Slight chance of rain early this morning, then chance of rain late this morning. Rain this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds around 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain in the evening, then rain and snow after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Snow, mainly in the morning. Vsby less than 1 nm, increasing to 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers.
ANZ300 413 Am Est Tue Dec 10 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will approach today and move through the region this evening. A weak wave of low pressure moves along the offshore front late tonight into Wednesday morning. Arctic high pressure builds into the region late Wednesday through Thursday. The high shifts offshore Thursday night followed by low pressure impacting the waters Friday into Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Great River, NY
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location: 40.72, -73.15     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 101216 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 716 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will approach today and move through the region this evening. A weak wave of low pressure moves along the offshore front late tonight into Wednesday morning. Arctic high pressure builds into the region late Wednesday through Thursday. The high shifts offshore Thursday night with low pressure approaching from the south Friday. Rain chances increase late Friday afternoon and overnight leading to an all day rain event likely for Saturday associated with the low pressure system.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Rain has briefly ended early this morning as low level jet has passed well to the east. The warm front that was near the region has also lifted to the north. Low clouds will remain in place this morning and there could be some patchy fog, but do not anticipate any significantly low visibilities.

The next round of rain will come ahead of an approaching cold front and a 700 mb shortwave trough. The rain should develop to the south and west this morning and overspread the area in the afternoon. The rain should continue into the early evening hours. Rainfall amounts are likely to be much less than what was observed on Monday. Amounts should be around a quarter of an inch through the early evening.

The actual cold front will just begin entering Orange county early this evening. High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 50s north and west of NYC with middle and upper 50s elsewhere. Some locations near the coast and city could touch or exceed 60 degrees.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/. The cold front will be moving across the region this evening. Temperatures both at the surface and aloft will drop significantly through midnight with temperatures from upper 40s and low 50s at 00z Wednesday and into the 30s around 06z. There will likely be lingering rain showers with the cold front passage. There is some indication on the high resolution model guidance that precipitation may end or become scattered briefly before midnight.

500 mb energy rounds the base of the upper trough early Wednesday morning and this brings increasing lift over the region. As this energy rounds the base of the upper trough, a strong upper jet streak, 160-180 kt, will be situated to our north. The region will lie in the right entrance of the jet, favoring large scale lift. A tight thermal gradient will also set up near the coast from the cold front passage leading to increasing frontogenesis. All of these ingredients lead to precipitation overspreading the Tri-State early Wednesday morning. The thermal profiles are expected to cool as this precipitation develops and grows in coverage with any lingering rain near the coast transitioning to snow around 09z.

There a several forecast challenges for early Wednesday morning. The first is the amount of snow accumulation and how the warm conditions preceding the snow will impact road conditions. The next challenge is how far north the precipitation shield will reach. There are mixed signals in the HREF, 12-km NAM, 3-km, NAM, GFS, and ECMWF. Most of the models hint the higher liquid equivalents will be from NYC on east across Long Island and southern Connecticut. However, the placement of the upper jet as well as the thermal gradient gives cause for concern that there will be some accumulation snow even across the NW interior. One other challenge will revolve around the placement of any mesoscale banding.

In summary, rain will transition to snow early Wednesday morning with impacts to the morning commute likely. Snowfall accumulations look to range from 1-2 inches across the NW interior of the Lower Hudson Valley and NE NJ. Further east around 2 inches is forecast in the NYC metro and Hudson River corridor with 2-3 inches across Long Island and southern Connecticut. This is where bands of snow may linger longest as these locations lie closer to the frontal wave. As noted above, the placement of any mesoscale snow bands is difficult to discern at this time range so forecast snow amounts could still change.

Have gone ahead and issued a winter weather advisory which is mainly for impacts on the morning commute. The advisory is for all of southern Connecticut, Long Island, NYC metro, Westchester in NY, and eastern Bergen, eastern Union, eastern Essex, and Hudson counties in NJ. Amounts are lower than normal advisory criteria, but feel the advisory is warranted with the snow occurring during the morning commute. The advisory may need to be expanded to the rest of the area if confidence increases on higher totals and more impact there. Even if roads do not see as much accumulation as grass, temperatures will be near freezing and lighter accumulation on roads and reduced visibility in moderate snow are likely to create hazardous travel.

A reasonable worst case snowfall of 3-4 inches is possible.

The snow will quickly end from west to east late Wednesday morning to early afternoon with improving conditions thereafter. Temperatures should reach the middle and upper 30s with skies becoming partly to mostly cloudy.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Dense arctic airmass shifts over New York State as a 1040mb high pressure system builds into the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Temperatures fall into the mid 20s near the city and in the upper teens along the Lower Hudson Valley. Skies should be clear Thursday but daytime highs will struggle to raise above freezing. This could be a full 10 degrees below day averages. Cold temperatures continue into the night but as the high pushes to the east and off shore winds veer out of the south allowing temperatures to rise back to near normals. Afternoon highs rise into the mid 40s Friday, but moisture returns with the flow increasing rain chances into the late afternoon.

Next chance for widespread rain come Friday night into Saturday. A trough axis over the Lower Mississippi initiates convection over the Southeast Friday night. As this broad area of convection follows the southwest to northeast upper level flow a coastal low develops off the coast of the Carolinas an continues north into our offshore waters by early Saturday morning. By this time, moderate rain should be well established over the forecast area first associated with the warm front then with the overhead occlusion itself. Model soundings show this sub-tropical airmass being quite moist with precipitable water values over 0.90 inches around the 90% moving average. Rainfall totals could be around 1-2 inches with isolated higher amounts. Nuisance flooding and ponding in areas of poor drainage from the rain are the main concerns at this time. There is a possibility for coastal flooding issues as well. An expected near full moon Saturday in combination with the onshore flood may be problematic for the south shore and eastern bays. This will continue to be monitored through the week. Mild temperatures are expected throughout the event in the low to mid 50s.

Cold front pushes through the region behind the system dropping temperatures back into the 40s during the day and 30s for the overnights Sunday and Monday as a weak ridge builds behind the front.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. A cold front will slowly approach today and move across the area tonight.

Conditions have improved to VFR at many of the terminals. Where we have not improved to VFR, MVFR conditions remain. Looking at current observations to the southwest and west, we should remain VFR for a good part of the morning. Then, the question is when do we fall back to MVFR? Forecast guidance is not doing well this morning with the flight category forecast, but thinking that we should return back to MVFR around 18z or so, when the next round of steady rain moves into the area. This next round of rain is expected to continue through the evening into the overnight. Rain will change to a rain/snow mix and eventually all snow from NW to SE after 03Z. Right now am thinking precipitation changes over to all snow in the city around 09z with snow ending around 14z. Some of the snow may fall moderate to locally heavy for a brief period in the morning if any banding sets up. Snowfall amounts could accumulate up to 2 inches. This would lower conditions to LIFR or less. Snow will end and an improvement to MVFR and possibly even VFR is expected late in the 30 hour taf period.

SW winds around 10 kt today then NW by 06z with speeds decreasing to 5-10 kt.

. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments expected today for changing flight categories.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments expected today for changing flight categories.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments expected today for changing flight categories.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments expected today for changing flight categories.

KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments expected today for changing flight categories.

KISP TAF Comments: Amendments expected today for changing flight categories.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. Wednesday. IFR or lower possible in snow in the morning, improving to VFR late. Thursday. VFR Friday and Friday night. VFR on Friday, then MVFR possible in developing rain Friday night. Saturday. IFR in rain. LLWS possible.

MARINE. A cold front approaches today and moves across this evening. A weak wave of low pressure passes offshore tonight into Wednesday morning with high pressure building late Wednesday.

Winds have weakened across the waters and the SCA on the non- ocean waters has been cancelled. The Gale warning on the ocean has been replaced with a SCA and runs through tonight. Winds will continue to gust to 25-30 kt. Winds fall below SCA levels tonight into Wednesday, but ocean seas will continue to remain elevated through Wednesday.

South winds increase to 20-25 mph nearing SCA conditions Saturday morning through the afternoon. Seas increase 9-12 feet by the afternoon associated with coastal low entering the ocean waters from the south. Though the low exits the region and winds relax Saturday night elevated waves remain through Sunday.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic issues are expected with rain through early this evening. The rain mixes with and changes to snow early Wednesday morning. Total liquid equivalent amounts from this morning through Wednesday morning are 0.50 to 0.75 inches.

A long duration rainfall event is possible beginning Friday night through late Saturday night. Total rainfall amounts range between 1- 2 inches with isolated higher amounts possible.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 11 AM EST Wednesday for CTZ005>012. NY . Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 11 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ070>075-078>081-176>179. NJ . Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 11 AM EST Wednesday for NJZ006-104-106-108. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353- 355.

SYNOPSIS . DJ/16/DS NEAR TERM . DS SHORT TERM . DS LONG TERM . DJ/16 AVIATION . BC MARINE . DJ/16/DS HYDROLOGY . DJ/16/DS EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 4 mi56 min SSW 9.7 G 12 47°F 40°F47°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 28 mi96 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 51°F 49°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 31 mi62 min SSW 4.1 G 6 51°F 44°F1007.5 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 32 mi36 min SW 18 G 19 54°F 50°F10 ft1009.4 hPa (+1.0)
44022 - Execution Rocks 33 mi26 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 50°F 32°F49°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 33 mi56 min WSW 8 G 8.9 55°F 44°F1008.7 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 38 mi36 min SSW 14 G 16 52°F 8 ft1008.9 hPa51°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 41 mi56 min S 6 G 7 48°F 41°F1007.6 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 46 mi56 min 55°F 46°F1008.7 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 49 mi56 min WSW 4.1 G 6 56°F 1008.2 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 49 mi56 min WSW 6 G 8.9 56°F 43°F1008.7 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY6 mi90 minSSW 108.00 miMostly Cloudy53°F53°F100%1008.7 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY14 mi33 minSSW 56.00 miFog/Mist53°F50°F89%1009 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY17 mi90 minSSW 117.00 miOvercast53°F51°F93%1009 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISP

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmSE4S5S7S9S9S9S6S6S5S6S5SW4SW7CalmS4SW3SW5CalmCalmN4CalmE3S11
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2 days agoNW11NW13N11NW12NW9N13NW9NW10W5W7NW5NW6N5NE3N3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Great River, Connetquot River, Long Island, New York
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Great River
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:27 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:13 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:29 AM EST     0.77 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:35 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:15 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:55 PM EST     0.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.20.1000.10.30.50.70.80.80.70.50.30.20.1-000.20.30.50.60.70.6

Tide / Current Tables for Fire Island Radiobeacon, Long Island, New York
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Fire Island Radiobeacon
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:17 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:13 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:56 AM EST     0.77 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 02:05 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:35 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:22 PM EST     0.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.