Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bay Shore, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Forecast on track with just some minor adjustments to reflect current observations. Otherwise, shortwave upper ridging slides east tonight. At the surface, high pressure remains along the NE US coast. Decent radiational cooling tonight with absence of cloud cover. With moderated humidity levels this will likely lead to scattered areas of fog development, especially valley, riverine, and outlying coastal areas late at night. Lows in the 40s across far outlying areas, to the upper 50s/lower 60s for coast and NYC metro.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
Shortwave upper ridging continues to slide east on Friday, allowing a northern stream shortwave to pivot through the region Friday Night into Saturday AM, and then east Sat afternoon. At the surface, a weak cold front approaches Friday night and crosses east Sat AM. High pressure gradually builds in from the NW Saturday.

Return flow strengthens into Friday, with a warmer and moister airmass advecting into the region. Morning stratus/fog should give way to sct (locally bkn) diurnal instability CU under strong subsidence inversion and to the north of developing sea breezes. Dry conditions under layered ridging, with temps a few degrees above on Friday under moderating airmass.

Vigorous shortwave approaches Friday evening and crosses early Saturday morning, with right front of upper jet lift. Modest theta-e advection and moisture convergence along/ahead of cold frontal boundary is a limiting factor for widespread shower activity, but with strength of shortwave and low-level instability, there is potential for a period of isolated (coast)
to scattered (interior) showers.

Clearing conditions from w to e Sat AM into early afternoon, with temps running a few degrees above seasonable in weak caa, offshore flow, and good mixing.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Not much change the last 24h with some small timing differences with a cold frontal passage early Monday.

A fast flow along the US/Canadian border will feature an amplifying longwave trough over central Canada and into the Great Lakes that closes off an upper low across across eastern Canada and the Northeast by midweek. The latter of which will bring in a below normal (3-5 degrees) airmass Tuesday into Thursday. The cold front passes through the area by early afternoon Monday, preceded by a round of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Instability is marginal, so more likely than not, thunderstorms will be few and far between. Rainfall amounts at this point look to be quarter inch or less.

Maintained above normal temperatures in the airmass ahead of the cold front, using a blend of the NBM and NBM750 for highs Sunday through Monday. Box and whisker plots showed only a few degrees between the 25th and 75th, so this is not a big upward adjustment.

A much cooler airmass will move in behind the cold front with gusty NW-WNW flow.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure remains over the area through overnight and then slides offshore Friday. A cold front approaches toward 06Z Saturday.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
There is a low chance of MVFR ceilings and patchy fog overnight, mainly KSWF and possibly KHPN, KTEB, and KISP.

Winds light and variable becoming S 10kt or less Friday, and generally light and variable Friday night.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Late Friday night through Saturday: A slight chance of showers with MVFR late Friday night into Saturday morning. VFR Saturday afternoon.

Sunday through Monday: VFR Sunday, then a chance of MVFR with a chance of showers Sunday night into Monday morning.

Tuesday: VFR. Gusty winds possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub-SCA conditions on the waters through Saturday Night with a weak pressure gradient and subsiding easterly swells.

With long period swells from Hurricane Kirk (see NHC for forecast details) reaching the area, ocean seas build to 5 to 6 feet Sunday into Monday. Swells will gradually subside Mon Night into Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic issues are expected throughout the forecast.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.