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LEZ142 Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh-reno Beach To The Islands Oh- 924 Am Est Mon Dec 4 2023
This afternoon..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Rain and snow likely in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday.
the water temperature off toledo is 40 degrees, off cleveland 45 degrees, and off erie 43 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 042329 CCA AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Northern Indiana 629 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 215 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Light snow, possibly mixed with rain at the onset, is expected late tonight into Tuesday. Snow accumulations up to an inch are possible, mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces along and north of highway 30. Dry and warmer conditions then follow for the second half of the week.

SHORT TERM
(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Key Messages:

* Snow, possibly mixed with rain, will expand over the area late tonight into Tuesday morning.

* Light, slushy snow accumulations will be possible, mainly on elevated and grassy surfaces Tuesday morning along and north of US 30.

* Main roads should remain mainly wet, though there is a chance for roads to become slushy where/if more enhanced snow bands setup.

Precipitation remains on target to expand over the area late tonight into Tuesday morning as a hybrid clipper drops southeast into the area. Decent moisture advection within the leading corridor of system relative isentropic upglide should allow light precip to break out from west to east in the ~9-13z window. Ptype may initially begin (or mix) with rain before full saturation and dynamic cooling allows for all snow for a time Tuesday morning. As mentioned in previous discussions, soundings and fcst x-sections continue to depict reduced stability above transient areas of elevated frontogenesis in mainly the 12-18z window. A period of enhanced snowfall rates and slushy accums on roads are possible if/where any banding occurs, though confidence on location and potential impacts are low given a marginal thermal profile and expected brief residence time within any stronger banding. A model consensus does favor areas along and just north of the US 30 corridor in nrn IN for the best chance for a half inch to inch of wet snow near the 700 mb shear axis.

Precipitation into the afternoon will trend lighter and more narrowed near the low level surface reflection tracking southeast through central and southern portions of the forecast area. The gradual loss of deeper moisture and slight warming of near sfc temps lead to a mix with drizzle/light rain during this time with no additional snow accum/impacts.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Key Messages:

* Scattered lake effect rain and snow showers Tuesday night into Wednesday morning in nw IN and sw MI. Minor snow accums possible.

* Dry, breezy and unseasonably mild weather is expected for the second half of the week.

* Active weather returns this weekend (chances for rain/snow/wind)

A brief period of cool northerly flow will bring at least scattered lake effect rain and snow showers into nw IN and sw MI overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Forecast soundings are rather shallow with the convective layer below the dendritic growth. The result would be more of a light drizzle/rain scenario within the pivoting lake plume.

Flow trajectories will quickly back to the wsw late Wednesday through the end of the week under building heights aloft. This will occur in advance of a longwave trough digging into the Western US.
The result will be some sunshine, unseasonably mild temps and breezy southwest winds in time for Thursday and Friday.

12z model guidance continues to slowly hone in on a more active pattern in time for this weekend. The Western US trough will eject east and send a developing sfc cyclone northeast through the Midwest and Great Lakes. As expected, there is considerable model spread in track/timing/strength at this forecast range. No adjustments were made from the NBM as a result with the overall evolution suggesting rain developing near a leading baroclinic zone, transition to snow showers and gusty within trailing wrap around for the end of the weekend.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Widespread high end MVFR/low end VFR ceilings throughout northern Indiana. With subtle lowering upstream across northern Illinois will simply go with 030 ceilings with acknowledge that incursions into VFR still likely, especially this evening. Primary attention of vigorous shortwave near KSUX and attendant robust clipper system. Track should bring onset of precipitation near 10 UTC KSBN and a couple hours later. Initial onset could be a rain/snow mix with relatively warm boundary layer wet bulb temperatures.
However, rapid evaporative/dynamic column cooling points to primarily a snow event. An extended period of IFR ceilings given low level moisture transport in advance of clipper, along with a period of heavier snow with modest saturation in relatively thin dendritic growth zone for a few hours after onset. Track of surface low from northern Illinois late morning, southeast into southern Ohio by end of forecast period. Gradual loss of moisture depth/ice nucleation after passage of frontal wave south of terminals suggest a transition to a light mix of drizzle and snow during the afternoon hours.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

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