Saturday, January16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mastic Beach, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:51PM Saturday January 16, 2021 3:25 AM EST (08:25 UTC) Moonrise 10:42AMMoonset 9:37PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1128 Pm Est Fri Jan 15 2021
.gale warning in effect until 6 am est Saturday...
Overnight..E winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt late. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain late this evening. Isolated tstms. Rain late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of flurries in the morning.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of flurries.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1128 Pm Est Fri Jan 15 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure develops along an approaching frontal system through early Saturday morning. The low quickly lifts northeast of the waters Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. A series of cold fronts will then move across the waters through the middle of next week, each followed by weak high pressure.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mastic Beach, NY
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location: 40.75, -72.78     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 160545 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1245 AM EST Sat Jan 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure develops along an approaching warm front. The low then moves then up into Central and Northern New England Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Thereafter, a series of cold fronts will then move across the area through the middle of next week, each followed by weak high pressure.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. A strong upper level low continues to approach the eastern seaboard tonight. A parent low pressure is slowly weakening over the Great Lakes as secondary low pressure development is beginning to take place over the Middle Atlantic coast along a warm front. A strengthening low level jet between 2 and 8kft overnight of 55 to 65 kt will allow for bands of moderate to locally heavy rain as the low begins to deepen with the approach of the warm front.

One area of rain has already lifted through the region with other bands beginning to lift northward from along and off the NJ coast. The secondary low will deepen through Saturday morning, moving mainly over eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut. Large scale lift will also increase through the morning hours as height falls in advance of the upper low. The eastern portion of the region becomes situated within strong divergence aloft ahead of an upper jet rounding the base of the trough.

There is excellent agreement among the high resolution models for a band of heavy rain to develop as the low deepens and the frontal system begins to move through. The location of the heaviest rain within this band looks to occur across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut around 08-13z. The system as a whole will move through relatively quickly, but deep moisture will allow for moderate rain at times even west of the heaviest band. Rainfall amounts of one half to one inch are forecast from NYC on west and one to two inches further east, highest across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut. Have also included isolated thunder overnight into the early morning hours.

A stable boundary layer will preclude any of the high winds from making it to the surface, but gusts 30-40 mph cannot be ruled out closest to the coasts.

Rain decreases in intensity west to east Saturday morning but cloudy conditions will prevail and periodic rain showers could linger around. The local region will still be east of the upper level low and in a region of positive vorticity advection. Winds will be lighter with the surface low developing across the front Saturday morning with a decrease in pressure gradient. As the low passes to the northeast into Central New England Saturday afternoon, the pressure gradient will tighten again with more of a SW to eventually W flow developing as the low moves farther northeast and deepens. Gusts will redevelop mid to late Saturday afternoon.

The highs Saturday were a blend of NBM and CONSRaw, mainly in the mid to upper 40s.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/. For Saturday night, the low will continue to deepen as it moves into Northern New England. The upper level low moves northeast of the region, with the flow becoming more zonal by early Sunday. Other than a few showers, mainly dry conditions are anticipated. The showers could be both rain and snow showers with colder air advecting in and accounting for wet bulb cooling.

Winds will be W and gusty and the well mixed boundary layer will allow for relatively warmer temperatures. Lows Saturday night were a blend of NBM and CONSAll and range from the upper 20s to lower 30s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. The northern branch of the polar jet will remain dominant across the NE quarter of the country through the upcoming week. This will largely result in dry, seasonably cold weather during this period.

As the onset, the cutoff upper low will be lifting northward on Sunday into the Canadian maritimes in conjunction with deep surface low pressure (around 980 mb). This will keep the area under gusty west winds (up to 35 mph) with partly to mostly sunny conditions. A series of strong shortwave troughs will then follow through the middle of next week, one early Monday, and another early Wednesday. While there is limited moisture available, a chance of flurries and/or a snow shower can not be ruled out. The later shortwave will be followed by the coldest shot of air during the period with temperatures struggling to get much above freezing on Wednesday. Global models are at odds with the magnitude of this features and the associated cold air. Taking a middle road approach will still keep high in the 30s. This coupled with another day of gusty winds will keep wind chill values in the 20s.

Another northern branch shortwave will send low pressure pressure tracking north of the Great Lakes on Thursday,sending a warm front through the region. The operational ECMWF develops a frontal wave near the Delmarva which tracks to the south and east, passing near the benchmark. This scenario raises the potential for some wintry weather, but many of the global models are progressive with this system and don't form a coastal low. For the time, chances of precipitation will remain low. A large area of high pressure then builds in for the end of the period.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Low pressure develops in the vicinity New York City tonight and tracks northeast during the day Saturday.

As the rain moves in, any MVFR conditions lower to IFR with a chance of LIFR in rain and fog.

Easterly winds increase to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Some gusts may briefly exceed 30 kt, especially east of the NYC terminals. There will be a lull (or at least a speed reduction) in the winds towards daybreak as the low develops along the cold front. Then SE to S winds increase again as the low begins to track to the northeast. Winds shift to the SW late in the TAF period. Chance of some level wind shear at KBDR and KISP, but more likely at KGON toward 10Z as a low level jet 50 to 60 kt develops.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Amendments are expected in varying conditions. Chance of TS at any one location is low but possible.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. Saturday. MVFR, possibly IFR in the morning, with rain, becoming less widespread in the afternoon. Rain ends late afternoon into the early evening, possibly ending as a rain/snow mix well north and west of the New York City terminals. SW-W wind gusts near 15-20 kt. Sunday. VFR. W wind gusts 25-30 kt. Gusts diminish at night. Monday. VFR. W wind gusts 15-20 kt, mainly during the day. Tuesday. VFR. Wednesday. Mainly VFR, chance of MVFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Low level jet developing will be moving across eastern ocean waters tonight bringing gale force gusts. There could be an occasional gust to gale force on the waters west of Fire Island Inlet, but otherwise the low level jet passes east keeping SCA range for winds. This holds true for the Western Sound and NY Harbor as well.

There will be a lull in winds early Saturday before picking up again late Saturday into Saturday night as the low moves northeast of the region and deepens, tightening the pressure gradient. Gales will be possible late Saturday night, with otherwise widespread SCA level gusts.

Ocean seas will stay in a 5 to 8 ft range through Saturday night. Eastern Long Island Sound has a 3 to 5 ft range through Saturday night.

A prolonged period of SCA conditions can be expected on most waters from Sunday into Tuesday as a series of cold fronts move through the waters, followed by gusty west winds.

HYDROLOGY. A low pressure system is expected to bring up to 1 - 1.5 inches of rainfall tonight into Saturday morning with locally higher amounts possible. Flash flooding is not anticipated due to the relatively fast motion of the storm and antecedent dry conditions. Minor urban street and poor drainage flooding however will still be possible.

No significant precipitation is expected thereafter.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. A few sites will reach their minor coastal flood benchmarks in the South Shore Bays Saturday morning and parts of southern Westchester NY and coastal Fairfield CT overnight during their respective high tide cycles. The statement may need to be expanded westward across the Lower Harbor. Wind forcing will increase surge to around 1 to 2 ft above astronomical water levels.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ335-338. Gale Warning until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ330-340- 345-350-353. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ355.

SYNOPSIS . JM/DW NEAR TERM . JM/DS SHORT TERM . JM LONG TERM . DW AVIATION . IRD/MW MARINE . JM/DW HYDROLOGY . JM/DW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi55 min NNE 9.9 G 15 38°F 42°F1005.8 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 37 mi55 min NE 8.9 G 13 38°F 40°F1007.2 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 39 mi35 min E 25 G 33 49°F 50°F11 ft1003.9 hPa47°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 40 mi35 min ESE 18 G 25 48°F11 ft999.9 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 48 mi55 min 45°F 42°F1006.7 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY6 mi29 minNE 75.00 miRain Fog/Mist46°F43°F89%1002.8 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY10 mi32 minE 11 G 245.00 miRain Fog/Mist46°F44°F93%1003.8 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY17 mi29 minENE 19 G 249.00 miLight Rain and Breezy46°F45°F96%1001.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHWV

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmNW5N4CalmCalmSE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N5N4N4N3Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3S7S8SW8SW8S5S4SW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Moriches Inlet, Long Island, New York
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Moriches Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:43 AM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:06 AM EST     3.16 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:17 PM EST     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:37 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:40 PM EST     2.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.50-0.10.311.82.42.93.232.41.60.80.1-0.3-0.20.311.72.22.62.62.3

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:15 AM EST     -1.59 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:38 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:21 AM EST     1.56 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:33 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:45 PM EST     -1.75 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:24 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:36 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:01 PM EST     1.28 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:56 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-1.3-1.6-1.5-1-0.50.31.21.51.51.20.5-0.4-1.1-1.6-1.7-1.4-1-0.30.51.11.31.20.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.