Thursday, February25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mastic Beach, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 5:39PM Thursday February 25, 2021 11:36 AM EST (16:36 UTC) Moonrise 4:45PMMoonset 6:51AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 946 Am Est Thu Feb 25 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until noon est today...
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain and snow after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain in the evening.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of rain.
Sun night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of rain.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
ANZ300 946 Am Est Thu Feb 25 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds in from the west today through early Friday. Low pressure and its associated frontal system impacts the waters Friday night into Saturday, with another frontal system moving through the waters Sunday into Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mastic Beach, NY
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location: 40.75, -72.78     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 251446 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 946 AM EST Thu Feb 25 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds in from the west today and through early Friday. The high then moves offshore Friday evening as a frontal system approaches from the southwest. The frontal system impacts the area Friday night and Saturday. Another frontal system moves through the region Sunday into Monday. High pressure briefly returns Tuesday. Another frontal system may impact the area Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Behind the departing cold front that moved through overnight are gusty winds due to a strong pressure gradient between the exiting low pressure and the strong high pressure building in today from the west. Winds will generally be out of the NW with gusts of 20 - 30 mph through the morning. As the high pressure moves overhead into the afternoon, the pressure gradient relaxes and winds should gradually diminish. Otherwise, skies will be mainly clear with seasonable high temperatures in the low to middle 40s for much of the area.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. High pressure remains overhead tonight and through much of the day on Friday with winds continuing to diminish and skies remaining mostly clear. Radiational cooling will play a big role in the low temperatures overnight and into Friday morning as the clear skies and weak winds will allow temperatures to rapidly fall in areas away from the immediate coastline. Lows will be in the low 20s inland and upper 20s to low 30s along the coastline and NYC metro.

The high pressure begins to move offshore Friday with mostly clear and dry conditions during the daytime. Highs will be in low to middle 40s. Clouds increase overnight Friday as a low pressure system approaches the area from the southwest. With low temperatures Friday night dropping into the upper 20s for the Interior and the low to middle 30s for the coastline/NYC metro, any precipitation that can move in before morning on Saturday has the potential to be in the form of light snow or a light snow/rain mix. Most of the precipitation likely won't move into the area until after sunrise on Saturday so much of it should be in the form of rain for much of the area.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A mainly zonal upper flow remains across the country through the extended period with the northern stream dominating as a series of shortwaves moves across the northeast Friday night into Saturday, with another Sunday into Monday, and possibly yet another wave Wednesday. Models have been more consistent with the timing of the low impacting the area Friday night into Saturday, and with more certainty have increased probabilities to likely during Saturday. Thermal profiles Friday night as showing the precipitation beginning as light snow and then quickly warming as warm advection increases through the day Saturday. During the morning into early afternoon the precipitation transitions from snow to all rain. There is little cold air expected to move into the region behind the low Saturday night as weak ridging briefly builds into the northeast. Then yet another shortwave and low track to the north of the area Sunday into Monday. With the warm air remaining across the region this system will be all liquid.

After this system model guidance becomes uncertain with the potential for another weak system to move through Wednesday. The GFS keeps near zonal flow and surface high pressure to the south while the ECMWF and Canadian develop the low in the southern stream and moves this system into the region. There is also uncertainty with any phasing with the northern stream. With the uncertainty will only have slight chance probabilities at this time.

AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. VFR all terminals. A cold front has pushed east of the area this morning. High pressure builds in its wake through the TAF period.

Wind gusts post frontal passage are NW/NNW and gusty, 15-20G25-30kts, especially this morning. Occasional gusts of 30-35 kt are possible, but become less likely as the morning progresses. Gusts should subside by 00Z Friday from west to east as the pressure gradient relaxes.

The threat for wind shear at 2000 ft has subsided.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

No unscheduled amendments are anticipated. Timing of wind gust cessation may be off by an hour or two this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 6Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Thursday night. VFR. Light WNW winds. Friday. VFR. Saturday. MVFR or lower with rain. A wintry mix possible at the onset. Sunday. Chance of rain and MVFR. Monday. Strong NW winds possible behind a cold front.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. No significant changes were made to winds or seas at this time.

Small craft advisories are in effect for all waters through this morning. Then, for Thursday afternoon, small craft advisories remain for Eastern Long Island Sound, Peconic and Gardiners Bays as well as the ocean zones. For Thursday evening, the small craft advisory continues for the ocean east of Fire Island Inlet. All waters are below SCA conditions for late Thursday night.

Widespread gusts in the 25-30 kt range are expected into this morning. On the ocean waters, some gusts closer to 35 kt will be possible early, but just occasional in frequency. There will be an inversion that will really limit the high gusts and mixing down of gale force winds. The 25kt gusts will likely linger across the eastern waters and ocean waters for this afternoon. Ocean seas stay elevated in a 5 to 7 ft range through this afternoon.

Conditions for both winds and seas lower Thursday night allowing for eventual return to sub-SCA conditions gradually for the forecast waters.

Winds and seas will be below SCA conditions Friday with high pressure over the waters. As a frontal system impacts the waters Saturday winds and seas on the ocean waters will increase to SCA levels. Winds diminish late Saturday night into Sunday as high pressure builds back into the waters, however, ocean seas will remain elevated into Sunday night. Small craft conditions return once again on the ocean waters Monday and remain into Monday night as yet another frontal system impacts the waters. The non ocean waters are expected to remain below SCA levels Friday through late Monday. With a gusty northwest flow developing behind the departing low as strong high pressure builds SCA conditions will be possible as all the forecast waters Monday night.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through Wednesday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ335-338-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ330- 340-355. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ353. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ350.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi48 min N 9.9 G 17 44°F 37°F1018 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 37 mi48 min NNW 13 G 19 42°F 36°F1018.8 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 39 mi26 min NW 16 G 19 42°F 41°F1018.5 hPa26°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 40 mi26 min NW 14 G 16 42°F1019.3 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 48 mi48 min 40°F 38°F1017.4 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY6 mi40 minNNW 12 G 2610.00 miFair46°F21°F37%1018.5 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY10 mi43 minNNW 1410.00 miFair46°F17°F31%1018.3 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY17 mi40 minNNW 1410.00 miA Few Clouds46°F22°F38%1018.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHWV

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Moriches Inlet, Long Island, New York
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Moriches Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:14 AM EST     3.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:50 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:30 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:38 AM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:44 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:47 PM EST     2.81 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:40 PM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.91.72.42.93.232.51.81.10.4-0.1-0.10.20.91.72.32.72.82.51.81.10.4-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:53 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:39 AM EST     1.60 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:49 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:29 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:47 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:02 AM EST     -1.66 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:43 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:43 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:07 PM EST     1.32 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:00 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:14 PM EST     -1.58 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1-0.60.10.91.51.61.30.7-0.2-1-1.5-1.7-1.5-1.1-0.60.211.31.20.8-0-0.8-1.3-1.6

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